1. Weekly Overview of Global Markets

Market Review and Outlook

Weekly performance of major asset classes: Gold> US dollars > US bonds > US stocks > Hong Kong stocks > Crude Oil

Stocks: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday to the House Financial Services Committee that he expects rate cuts this year. On Thursday, he responded to these comments at the Senate Banking Committee, saying that this year it can and will start cutting expenses. Powell's remarks have increased confidence and last week the stock market rose again, with the S&P 500 rising 1.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index rising 1.5%. Nvidia rose more than 4%, breaking through the $900 mark to set a new all-time high.

Bonds: Although ADP employment is slightly lower than expected from an economic data perspective, overall yields have fallen all the way. Part of the reason may be the positive comments from Jerome Powell on rate cuts, while on the other hand, investors are waiting for Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which may bring positive clues for rate cuts.

Gold: Despite the decline in gold assets in US ETFs, which may indicate low investment enthusiasm and a strong US dollar, the price of gold still hit a new historical high last week. The surge in demand for gold mainly comes from the international market represented by China. In January of this year, global official gold reserves increased by 39 tons, which was a net increase for the eighth consecutive month and more than twice the purchase volume in December.

Note: The weekly performance of major asset classes is ranked based on the weekly change in the asset class as shown in the table above, with ">" indicating the ranking from highest to lowest. US bonds are ranked based on the change in futures prices. Past returns do not guarantee future returns.

Data source: Bloomberg. Date as of March 7th, 2024

1. Weekly Hot Topic

Hitting a new high! Why has Bitcoin become a recent hot topic?

On March 5th, Bitcoin reached its highest point in over two years, breaking through $69,000 for the first time. This price increase is related to the launch of new Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted a large number of investors since their launch on January 11, 2024.

According to CoinMarketCap, as of March 1, 2024, the total global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $23.2 trillion, with Bitcoin's market cap accounting for 52.8% of it. The CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index reached 90, a three-year high, indicating "Extreme Greed" and suggesting that the market is currently experiencing an extremely bullish sentiment.

1. Milestones in the Bitcoin market

In August 2023, Coinbase Global obtained approval from the National Futures Association of the United States to provide cryptocurrency futures to eligible US customers. This was the first cryptocurrency platform to provide regulated and leveraged cryptocurrency futures in the cryptocurrency asset industry.

In January 2024, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) made a landmark decision, approving the first batch of Bitcoin spot ETFs from 11 issuers. These ETFs are sponsored by some of the world's largest asset management companies, such as BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments. These companies have brought new attention and investment to Bitcoin.

1. Market environment

Interest rate cut: In 2024, the Federal Reserve will begin an interest rate cut cycle, with the first rate cut expected to begin in June. Cryptocurrency prices are also related to Federal Reserve interest rates because rate cuts lower borrowing costs, increase market liquidity, and drive more funds into investments, including Bitcoin. Therefore, it is expected that more funds will enter after the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in 2024, which may continue to drive Bitcoin prices up.

Bitcoin halving: Bitcoin is scheduled to undergo a halving in April 2024, at which point the block reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, the cryptocurrency asset industry has seen an uptrend after Bitcoin halvings. With halving approaching, Bitcoin prices may rise again.

Bitcoin ETF: This year, the SEC has standardized the trading of cryptocurrencies through Bitcoin spot ETFs, making mainstream investors more confident in investing in cryptocurrencies. In addition to institutions that have already joined Bitcoin ETF trading, several well-known banks are also considering offering Bitcoin ETF products, indicating that Bitcoin ETFs are attracting more investors and funds. With significant investment and continued bullish sentiment, the total trading volume of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $10 billion to date.

Continued inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the upcoming halving, more regulation, and strong US economic performance are all supporting cryptocurrency returns.

Although the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market still exists, the combination of regulatory changes, technological advances, and macroeconomic factors is expected to bring more liquidity into the cryptocurrency market. Beincrypto analysts believe that we may be entering a period that has the potential to reshape the future of digital assets.

Important Events Outlook for This Week

Note: The Upcoming Economic Calendar is selected from moomoo Financial Calendar.

• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting

The Federal Reserve has a significant interest rate meeting scheduled on March 20th. Currently, it is anticipated that the Fed will maintain the interest rates at their current level during the March meeting.

Last week, Jerome Powell stated that the central bank would begin to lower borrowing costs in 2024 but that policymakers still needed to gain “greater confidence” that inflation was conquered before making a move. Powell's comments on economic policy are generally in line with market expectations.

In addition, at the March meeting, Fed policymakers will update their economic variable forecasts in the economic forecast summary, including the interest rate outlook. This week, the market will closely monitor the latest news from the Federal Reserve.