TridentRodent
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Question 1:
We all know that TQQQ is three times as long as QQQ, so buying one TQQQ share is equivalent to buying how many QQQ shares? In other words, after buying x shares tqqq, what is the ratio of x and y to achieve the same profit/loss?
If your answer is 3, then you've made a mistake. A clear understanding of the leverage ratio is very important for leveraged ETFs.
The current price of qqq is 426, and tqqq is 56; the ratio of the two rates of change is three times, that is, qqq increased by 1% and tqqq increased by 3%. The actual change in stock price is that qqq rose 4.26, and tqqq rose 1.68. The calculation shows that 4.26/1.68 = 2.5, which means that the increase in 1 share of qqq requires buying 2.5 shares of tqqq to eat.
Question 2:
What is the utilization rate of funds?
As can be seen from the above question, in the case where the profit is the same, the ratio of QQQ and TQQ shares is 1:2.5, and the amount required to invest is 426:140 = 3. Therefore, everyone should be aware that triple leverage is based on capital rather than number of shares. At this point, the results are very intuitive. Next, let's discuss the options issue.
The current monthly option call ATM price is qqq: tqqq = 9.2:3.4 = 2.7. The result we got in question 1 is 2.5, which is very close. However, there is also a share leverage ratio for options.
How to choose:
1...
We all know that TQQQ is three times as long as QQQ, so buying one TQQQ share is equivalent to buying how many QQQ shares? In other words, after buying x shares tqqq, what is the ratio of x and y to achieve the same profit/loss?
If your answer is 3, then you've made a mistake. A clear understanding of the leverage ratio is very important for leveraged ETFs.
The current price of qqq is 426, and tqqq is 56; the ratio of the two rates of change is three times, that is, qqq increased by 1% and tqqq increased by 3%. The actual change in stock price is that qqq rose 4.26, and tqqq rose 1.68. The calculation shows that 4.26/1.68 = 2.5, which means that the increase in 1 share of qqq requires buying 2.5 shares of tqqq to eat.
Question 2:
What is the utilization rate of funds?
As can be seen from the above question, in the case where the profit is the same, the ratio of QQQ and TQQ shares is 1:2.5, and the amount required to invest is 426:140 = 3. Therefore, everyone should be aware that triple leverage is based on capital rather than number of shares. At this point, the results are very intuitive. Next, let's discuss the options issue.
The current monthly option call ATM price is qqq: tqqq = 9.2:3.4 = 2.7. The result we got in question 1 is 2.5, which is very close. However, there is also a share leverage ratio for options.
How to choose:
1...
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TridentRodent
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Before starting the text, please be clear: in the market, apart from the most basic treasury bonds and monetary funds, there are almost no risk-free arbitrage opportunities. Low returns do not necessarily correspond to low risks, but high returns necessarily correspond to high risks.
I think stock market investment is an impossible triangle: low risk, high return, short time. Only two of these three can exist at the same time. Even if they are investment geniuses and have a very high winning rate when choosing the right time, they can only increase the chance of appearing in the third place, and cannot completely deviate from this rule. For us retail investors, the easiest and most effective method is to exchange time for space, buy and hold, use longer time, lower risk, and ultimately obtain high profits. Please always remember:When you see attractive high returns, never give up your capital until you understand what kind of risk this investment actually has.
Back to the topic, I don't think TSly or any of the other YieldMax individual stocks covered call ETFs are suitable for simple buy-and-hold, and it's almost impossible to rely on tsly alone to obtain stable income. $YIELDMAX TSLA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF(TSLY.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$
TSLY's distribution rate is over 50%. Although it can continue to collect premium in volatile markets and falling markets, there are two things to keep in mind:
1. The price of the premium received...
I think stock market investment is an impossible triangle: low risk, high return, short time. Only two of these three can exist at the same time. Even if they are investment geniuses and have a very high winning rate when choosing the right time, they can only increase the chance of appearing in the third place, and cannot completely deviate from this rule. For us retail investors, the easiest and most effective method is to exchange time for space, buy and hold, use longer time, lower risk, and ultimately obtain high profits. Please always remember:When you see attractive high returns, never give up your capital until you understand what kind of risk this investment actually has.
Back to the topic, I don't think TSly or any of the other YieldMax individual stocks covered call ETFs are suitable for simple buy-and-hold, and it's almost impossible to rely on tsly alone to obtain stable income. $YIELDMAX TSLA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF(TSLY.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$
TSLY's distribution rate is over 50%. Although it can continue to collect premium in volatile markets and falling markets, there are two things to keep in mind:
1. The price of the premium received...
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As we all know, most of this year's market gains have come from tech giants. However, the stock market doesn't just rise or fall. Especially in times of economic turmoil and increased uncertainty, stable returns and lower risk investments can increase long-term returns.
Moreover, to be honest, when every day is tiring, the dividend strategy should take up part of the position, at least seek peace of mind. In my opinion, there are roughly five types of dividend instruments that can be held for a long time:
1. Dividend individual stocks. This is divided into traditional stocks, such as PFE and KO; and growth stocks, such as MSFT.
2. Profit transfer stocks. BDC investment corporate bonds, MLP investment energy, royalty trust investment minerals, REITs investment real estate
3. Treasury bonds are divided into short-term debt and long-term debt
4. Monetary funds and savings
5. options strategy etf
Regarding dividend stocks:
A stable and continuous dividend payment history, and the dividend rate usually does not exceed 15%. Higher than this number means the company is in big trouble; if dividends are frequently skipped, or the amount of dividends often changes drastically, it is generally not a qualified dividend strategy stock
The company's financial health: The company's debt load, cash flow, and other financial metrics to ensure that it has sufficient funds to continue to pay dividends.
Sustainability of business models: For example, in the petroleum industry, if you think electric motors will completely replace internal combustion engines in the future, then the business of traditional energy companies may be greatly eroded
Growth potential: such as aapl $Apple(AAPL.US$ MR and MSFT...
Moreover, to be honest, when every day is tiring, the dividend strategy should take up part of the position, at least seek peace of mind. In my opinion, there are roughly five types of dividend instruments that can be held for a long time:
1. Dividend individual stocks. This is divided into traditional stocks, such as PFE and KO; and growth stocks, such as MSFT.
2. Profit transfer stocks. BDC investment corporate bonds, MLP investment energy, royalty trust investment minerals, REITs investment real estate
3. Treasury bonds are divided into short-term debt and long-term debt
4. Monetary funds and savings
5. options strategy etf
Regarding dividend stocks:
A stable and continuous dividend payment history, and the dividend rate usually does not exceed 15%. Higher than this number means the company is in big trouble; if dividends are frequently skipped, or the amount of dividends often changes drastically, it is generally not a qualified dividend strategy stock
The company's financial health: The company's debt load, cash flow, and other financial metrics to ensure that it has sufficient funds to continue to pay dividends.
Sustainability of business models: For example, in the petroleum industry, if you think electric motors will completely replace internal combustion engines in the future, then the business of traditional energy companies may be greatly eroded
Growth potential: such as aapl $Apple(AAPL.US$ MR and MSFT...
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TridentRodent
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$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ NVDA's trend over the past few days has had ups and downs. Not to mention the sharp rise before and after the financial report, depending on the recent few days, when IV hasn't changed much, the price fluctuation from 470-495 is commonplace. Although in comparison, 470 to 495 has only risen 5.3%, yet the price change of an option can reach 100%-300%.
However, there are a number of issues to consider when buying call options:
1. The value of time. If you think NVDA will reach 500 within half a month, then buy its 500 20230915 call option, but if you guess wrong, even if NVDA is trading sideways at 495, this option will lose an average of 85 yuan a day, and eventually become a piece of waste paper. And if you finally reach 500 or more, part of your profit will still be affected by the reduction in time value.
2. Expanding volatility. Take today's trend as an example. The image of NVDA is roughly a parabola opening downward, 484-499-492. If you buy a large number of call options at 495, wait 500 at 499 and sell without stopping loss, then your loss is today's time value plus the decline that has been increased tens of times. If you wake up tomorrow, you can see a loss of 20%-30% for each option.
3. The profit to loss ratio is not good. You might say that the maximum loss of buying an option is limited, and the maximum gain is unlimited. However, in reality, the sell-by period...
However, there are a number of issues to consider when buying call options:
1. The value of time. If you think NVDA will reach 500 within half a month, then buy its 500 20230915 call option, but if you guess wrong, even if NVDA is trading sideways at 495, this option will lose an average of 85 yuan a day, and eventually become a piece of waste paper. And if you finally reach 500 or more, part of your profit will still be affected by the reduction in time value.
2. Expanding volatility. Take today's trend as an example. The image of NVDA is roughly a parabola opening downward, 484-499-492. If you buy a large number of call options at 495, wait 500 at 499 and sell without stopping loss, then your loss is today's time value plus the decline that has been increased tens of times. If you wake up tomorrow, you can see a loss of 20%-30% for each option.
3. The profit to loss ratio is not good. You might say that the maximum loss of buying an option is limited, and the maximum gain is unlimited. However, in reality, the sell-by period...
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My DIS holdings as of today's close $Disney(DIS.US$ and UPST $Upstart(UPST.US$ They are all in a state of loss, yet during this period of decline, buying low and selling Covered Call high has instead made my total position profitable, and AMZN $Amazon(AMZN.US$ Covered calls have also increased my profit.
The exercise prices I chose were all able to enjoy some of the increase even if they were sold too far. The exercise dates were at the end of September/early October. On the one hand, I was worried that September might drop briefly; on the other hand, options that expire in one month reached a balance between time value and operating space.
I have been optimistic about these companies for a long time, but I don't mind selling them at any time; cash is waiting for an opportunity. In the current environment, having a bank or buying short-term treasury bonds has considerable benefits.
The exercise prices I chose were all able to enjoy some of the increase even if they were sold too far. The exercise dates were at the end of September/early October. On the one hand, I was worried that September might drop briefly; on the other hand, options that expire in one month reached a balance between time value and operating space.
I have been optimistic about these companies for a long time, but I don't mind selling them at any time; cash is waiting for an opportunity. In the current environment, having a bank or buying short-term treasury bonds has considerable benefits.
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TridentRodent
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If you haven't read it, please review my last postStrong hedging remains unchanged, and Nvidia's earnings report will continue to changeI mentioned that you should not use options to gamble on financial reports; even if you gamble, you should short the volatility ratio. Because even if I'm generally bullish on NVDA and buy Call when IV far exceeds HV, the probability of losing money is extremely high.
Today's NVDA $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ There was a sharp decline at the opening of the market, falling all the way from 502 to 475. After a short pullback, it came to 471 at the closing price, which just happened to be yesterday's closing price. On the options chain, the opening price of 500 calls due this week is 12.45, but in reality, this price cannot be settled; most people's transaction price is around 7. However, its closing price yesterday was 11.63, which means that if you did it in the right direction, you still lost half of it, and if you weren't convinced and continued to struggle, you can imagine the results. As you can imagine, this call is now close to zero. Interested friends can check the price changes of ATM Put and Call on their own. Almost all of the options bought at the close of yesterday and expired this week lost more than 50% at the end of today's trading.
The happiest person today, apart from market makers, is probably a friend who saw my post last time and had a short financial report with me. In today's market environment, not losing money means making money.
Other tech stocks followed suit today, and VIX did not rise significantly. My judgment is that today's decline is to prepare for tomorrow's fluctuations, and whether market sentiment will change, we will have to wait...
Today's NVDA $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ There was a sharp decline at the opening of the market, falling all the way from 502 to 475. After a short pullback, it came to 471 at the closing price, which just happened to be yesterday's closing price. On the options chain, the opening price of 500 calls due this week is 12.45, but in reality, this price cannot be settled; most people's transaction price is around 7. However, its closing price yesterday was 11.63, which means that if you did it in the right direction, you still lost half of it, and if you weren't convinced and continued to struggle, you can imagine the results. As you can imagine, this call is now close to zero. Interested friends can check the price changes of ATM Put and Call on their own. Almost all of the options bought at the close of yesterday and expired this week lost more than 50% at the end of today's trading.
The happiest person today, apart from market makers, is probably a friend who saw my post last time and had a short financial report with me. In today's market environment, not losing money means making money.
Other tech stocks followed suit today, and VIX did not rise significantly. My judgment is that today's decline is to prepare for tomorrow's fluctuations, and whether market sentiment will change, we will have to wait...
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TridentRodent
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Bull spread put qqq that opened a position last week $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ and spies $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ There was a slight loss after today's rise in the general market and technology stocks, but there are no plans to stop loss. I think general market risks remain in the short to medium term.
The technology stock in my hands amzn $Amazon(AMZN.US$ and UPST $Upstart(UPST.US$ Continue to sell covered calls to protect/prepare to sell stocks. Among them, AMZN's license price is 129, which expires at the end of next month. If it falls to around 132, I would consider continuing to sell stocks in Nacang. If I really can't sell it, the more I lose my position. The current position is relatively small, and there isn't much of a problem with the fundamentals of AMZN, so I'm not at all alarmed in the long run.
Interest rate cuts may occur from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. By that time, tlt $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ There will be a lot of room for price increases. So don't get bogged down in the short-term trend of TLT. This thing is very expensive in time, and you can only make money if you hold it for a long time, and the black swan hedging effect it brings is considered a giveaway. A tlt position of 10%-20% is sufficient.
NVDA is rising today...
The technology stock in my hands amzn $Amazon(AMZN.US$ and UPST $Upstart(UPST.US$ Continue to sell covered calls to protect/prepare to sell stocks. Among them, AMZN's license price is 129, which expires at the end of next month. If it falls to around 132, I would consider continuing to sell stocks in Nacang. If I really can't sell it, the more I lose my position. The current position is relatively small, and there isn't much of a problem with the fundamentals of AMZN, so I'm not at all alarmed in the long run.
Interest rate cuts may occur from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. By that time, tlt $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ There will be a lot of room for price increases. So don't get bogged down in the short-term trend of TLT. This thing is very expensive in time, and you can only make money if you hold it for a long time, and the black swan hedging effect it brings is considered a giveaway. A tlt position of 10%-20% is sufficient.
NVDA is rising today...
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TridentRodent
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Over the weekend, the price of oil futures reached the 20-day average again. Interest rates on long-term treasury bonds have skyrocketed, and holding technology stocks requires vigilance.
As long as crude oil prices and long-term interest rates do not enter a downward channel, technology stocks will face pressure. An increase is also a reversal.
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ There was a stop sign around 210. Here, the 120-day average and the ascending channel are down. My previous 220 judgments were slightly off, mainly because I didn't expect it to fall too fast. If it slows down a bit when falling, the lower rail of the channel will move to around 220. However, I still have that view. If there is a rebound, I will sell a little bit and keep it short. A real reversal requires a decline in crude oil prices and US bond yields.
Other big tech stocks did the same. They rebounded, and some of their selling positions rolled over. Or sell call.
Unless, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ Financial reports have once again been positive, rekindling the passion for AI investment. If Viagra were to stop, oil prices continued to rise, interest rates continued to rise, and technology stocks would have to continue to fall.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ The decline was severe enough; it was in the middle of a loss. I don't know if friends who own TMF can continue to stick with it.
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$
As long as crude oil prices and long-term interest rates do not enter a downward channel, technology stocks will face pressure. An increase is also a reversal.
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ There was a stop sign around 210. Here, the 120-day average and the ascending channel are down. My previous 220 judgments were slightly off, mainly because I didn't expect it to fall too fast. If it slows down a bit when falling, the lower rail of the channel will move to around 220. However, I still have that view. If there is a rebound, I will sell a little bit and keep it short. A real reversal requires a decline in crude oil prices and US bond yields.
Other big tech stocks did the same. They rebounded, and some of their selling positions rolled over. Or sell call.
Unless, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ Financial reports have once again been positive, rekindling the passion for AI investment. If Viagra were to stop, oil prices continued to rise, interest rates continued to rise, and technology stocks would have to continue to fall.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ The decline was severe enough; it was in the middle of a loss. I don't know if friends who own TMF can continue to stick with it.
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$
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TridentRodent
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I opened a spy position yesterday $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ and QQQ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ The spread bull put expires on September 29, and the near-end exercise rights prices are 432 and 350, respectively.
Here's my trading plan:
If the exercise price is not reached after two weeks, if the general market trend is sideways, then it will roll to the end of October; if technology stocks and the general market rise, they may have to accept the stop loss. The time costs associated with left-hand trading are not necessarily acceptable to me.
If the exercise price is reached at any time within two weeks, I will immediately close my position, and the short side will not consider taking over shares. Since index options are used, in the absence of black swans, it is unrealistic to want to go all the way down; there is a high risk of floating profit and increasing positions.
Since it has been selling covered calls, high sales and low absorption reduce costs, Amzn $Amazon(AMZN.US$ and DIS $Disney(DIS.US$ This week's downturn hasn't caused me any loss. All of my profits have already been reduced to safety, and my losses don't seem to matter.
upst $Upstart(UPST.US$ CC has floating losses, but if the stock price is still trading sideways around 33 until next week, it will be able to eat up quite a bit of time value, float...
Here's my trading plan:
If the exercise price is not reached after two weeks, if the general market trend is sideways, then it will roll to the end of October; if technology stocks and the general market rise, they may have to accept the stop loss. The time costs associated with left-hand trading are not necessarily acceptable to me.
If the exercise price is reached at any time within two weeks, I will immediately close my position, and the short side will not consider taking over shares. Since index options are used, in the absence of black swans, it is unrealistic to want to go all the way down; there is a high risk of floating profit and increasing positions.
Since it has been selling covered calls, high sales and low absorption reduce costs, Amzn $Amazon(AMZN.US$ and DIS $Disney(DIS.US$ This week's downturn hasn't caused me any loss. All of my profits have already been reduced to safety, and my losses don't seem to matter.
upst $Upstart(UPST.US$ CC has floating losses, but if the stock price is still trading sideways around 33 until next week, it will be able to eat up quite a bit of time value, float...
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TridentRodent
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I've just sorted out how I use options to protect Google. As an options newbie with less than a year's experience, share it and welcome advice from senior people.
But for $Tesla(TSLA.US$ Currently, I really can't think of any good options trading strategies. Maybe you can buy a crossbody and bet on him going up and down? However, the risk is also quite high. Should the sideways trade close to 200, the buying spans will be a complete loss. I really can't think of a safe strategy.
I currently hold 4% of positions in Tesla, and 4% of positions $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US$ . They all had quite a few ups and downs. If my Tesla position is currently very heavy, I don't think I'm in the mood to write anything here... Rivian I added today and sold the low level Call at the same time, similar to $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ The approach.
Looking back, this wave of Tesla's decline has long been foreshadowed.
When the stock price was 270, I held a bottom position of 1%, so I felt that the gap between the high level and decline above would be slow to be filled; I feel like there would be a problem. I posted a post at the time, so if you are interested, you can go back and check it out. At the time, there were those who agreed and those who opposed it. I hope that regardless of whether everyone agreed or disagreed at the time, as long as they understood the risks I was talking about, then I also contributed to society.
It later dropped to 250, and I bought 2% of the position, but I'm still worried about falling to 220, so I don't recommend repositioning.
It dropped to 220 in the past two days, and I hung up...
But for $Tesla(TSLA.US$ Currently, I really can't think of any good options trading strategies. Maybe you can buy a crossbody and bet on him going up and down? However, the risk is also quite high. Should the sideways trade close to 200, the buying spans will be a complete loss. I really can't think of a safe strategy.
I currently hold 4% of positions in Tesla, and 4% of positions $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US$ . They all had quite a few ups and downs. If my Tesla position is currently very heavy, I don't think I'm in the mood to write anything here... Rivian I added today and sold the low level Call at the same time, similar to $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ The approach.
Looking back, this wave of Tesla's decline has long been foreshadowed.
When the stock price was 270, I held a bottom position of 1%, so I felt that the gap between the high level and decline above would be slow to be filled; I feel like there would be a problem. I posted a post at the time, so if you are interested, you can go back and check it out. At the time, there were those who agreed and those who opposed it. I hope that regardless of whether everyone agreed or disagreed at the time, as long as they understood the risks I was talking about, then I also contributed to society.
It later dropped to 250, and I bought 2% of the position, but I'm still worried about falling to 220, so I don't recommend repositioning.
It dropped to 220 in the past two days, and I hung up...
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