Strong hedging remains unchanged, and Nvidia's earnings report will continue to change
Bull spread put qqq that opened a position last week $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ and spies $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ There was a slight loss after today's rise in the general market and technology stocks, but there are no plans to stop loss. I think general market risks remain in the short to medium term.
The technology stock in my hands amzn $Amazon(AMZN.US$ and UPST $Upstart(UPST.US$ Continue to sell covered calls to protect/prepare to sell stocks. Among them, AMZN's license price is 129, which expires at the end of next month. If it falls to around 132, I would consider continuing to sell stocks in Nacang. If I really can't sell it, the more I lose my position. The current position is relatively small, and there isn't much of a problem with the fundamentals of AMZN, so I'm not at all alarmed in the long run.
Interest rate cuts may occur from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. By that time, tlt $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ There will be a lot of room for price increases. So don't get bogged down in the short-term trend of TLT. This thing is very expensive in time, and you can only make money if you hold it for a long time, and the black swan hedging effect it brings is considered a giveaway. A tlt position of 10%-20% is sufficient.
NVDA has risen quite well today, but I'm not going to use options to gamble on financial reports. There are three reasons:
1. IV is too high. An IV crash after the financial report will result in a loss even if the direction is right. What is likely to happen is that only a small number of calls/puts close to the ATM in the right direction will make a profit, and all others will lose money.
2. The risk-to-income ratio of betting on volatility is also poor. If you buy the most profitable ATM straddle, the stock price will have to fluctuate at least 40 yuan to make a profit, and the profit will be very limited. The overall delta is about 0.2-0.4. However, when it comes to selling Straddle/Strangle, if the story from the last financial report is repeated, 200% loss is imminent.
3. Sentiment aside, AI application layer companies don't bring good products/stories, so NVDA's room for growth is limited.
If you have NVDA $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ Underlying stock, my recommendation is to ship at a bargain price. If you're not afraid of risk, sell an OTM call with a delta of around 0.2 that expires this week. Even if it goes up after the financial report, both options and underlying stocks are likely to be profitable. When selling covered calls, the higher the delta of the call itself, the lower the risk. The exercise date is OK from the expiration date this week to two months later, depending on the judgment on the future trend of stock prices and whether there is financial pressure to ship as soon as possible.
I hope everyone can make money, buy good stocks for long-term investors, and seize every trend as a short-term daily friend.
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