TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFWatchlist
People Are Worried About the Treasury Basis Trade Risks, Except Goldman Sachs
Over the past month, the Bank for International Settlements, a convening body for the world's central banks, and US Federal Reserve researchers have pointed to a rapid build-up in hedge fund bets in the Treasury market.
Long-term US Treasury yields have soared across the board! The “term premium” was “regularized” for the first time since 2021
An indicator reflecting additional income from holding long-term debt by bond investors shows a positive value for the first time since June 2021, showing a sharp rise in longer-term US Treasury yields.
The US government is about to shut down, and Congress is finding a way out: the Senate plans to extend spending by 45 days, and the House of Representatives may force a vote on the temporary financing case
According to the media, members of the two parties in the Senate are close to reaching an agreement to extend government spending for 45 days; moderate Republican members of the House of Representatives are preparing to launch a rare procedure with members of the Democratic Party to force a vote on the bill to extend financing until January 11 next year.
Seems like the market is still having a hangover from last week’s FOMC meeting. Investors probably realised that they have priced in rate cuts too early.
Meanwhile, the market is also waiting and watching to see if there will be a shutdown for the US government.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$$ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF(TQQQ.US)$$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US)$$Tesla(TSLA.US)$$Apple(AAPL.US)$$Arm Holdings(ARM.US)$$Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US)$$Meta Platforms(META.US)$$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$$Amazon(AMZN.US)$$Netflix(NFLX.US)$$Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$$Adobe(ADBE.US)$$KBW Nasdaq Bank Index(.BKX.US)$$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB.US)$$Intel(INTC.US)$$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$$Temasek Holdings(BK2536.US)$$Disney(DIS.US)$$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$$SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust(DIA.US)$$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD)$$Coca-Cola(KO.US)$$PayPal(PYPL.US)$
Often stocks sell-off during a puke in bonds. Since 2022, a >2% 1-day fall in $TLT coincided w/ average $SPY fall of 0.68%
Today, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ 2.08%, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ down only 0.03%
Will stocks follow bonds?