$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$
$Amazon(AMZN.US$
Currently, Big Tech's earnings report is almost the same; it's just AMZN and AAPL. AAPL is not on the AI track. Even if the financial report explodes, it won't have much impact on NVDA. The main thing is AMZN.
Other big AI technologies are currently quite strong. Among them, Meta is strong; even if the stock price is broken, they still have to buy chips. Goog and MSFT are pretty good; if you have money, you can keep buying chips. So it's just AMZN.
However $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US$ They are also worthy of attention; after all, they are good friends. Other financial reports, including amd, should have little impact. As for NVDA's own financial report, it's still early, so don't worry about it for now.
I hope AMZN and SMCI's financial reports will satisfy Wall Street and get the stock market out of this period of decline.
$Amazon(AMZN.US$
Currently, Big Tech's earnings report is almost the same; it's just AMZN and AAPL. AAPL is not on the AI track. Even if the financial report explodes, it won't have much impact on NVDA. The main thing is AMZN.
Other big AI technologies are currently quite strong. Among them, Meta is strong; even if the stock price is broken, they still have to buy chips. Goog and MSFT are pretty good; if you have money, you can keep buying chips. So it's just AMZN.
However $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US$ They are also worthy of attention; after all, they are good friends. Other financial reports, including amd, should have little impact. As for NVDA's own financial report, it's still early, so don't worry about it for now.
I hope AMZN and SMCI's financial reports will satisfy Wall Street and get the stock market out of this period of decline.
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$Tesla(TSLA.US$
Less than a week later, Tesla is stealing headlines again.
If my 160 call didn't sell, now it's not hot pot money![]()
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But it doesn't matter. Ordinary people can't make this kind of money; even if they do, it's because of luck.
If FSD can be successfully approved in China, it would definitely be a good thing, but I'm curious exactly how many paying users it will have. Road conditions in China are much more complicated than in the US. The congested roads, aggressive driving style, serious lack of courtesy, and a large number of illegal non-motor vehicles are also quite a challenge to the FSD. But then again, even though I'm an old driver, I really don't dare to drive in China. If I need to drive home, I probably really need to rent a Tesla with an FSD![]()
Get back to business. My current opinion on Tesla: At around 180, probably between 160 and 200, it fluctuates widely and continuously digests the trap above. Concentrate your chips around 180, then choose a direction to break through. This direction depends not only on Tesla itself, but also on the macro environment and Sino-US relations. It is currently impossible to predict. But if you choose to go up at that time, the increase will not be less than 50%.
If you like the band, you can play by throwing small positions high and low at this stage. If you don't like it, just wait for a breakthrough later, and it will take a huge amount of money.
Less than a week later, Tesla is stealing headlines again.
If my 160 call didn't sell, now it's not hot pot money
But it doesn't matter. Ordinary people can't make this kind of money; even if they do, it's because of luck.
If FSD can be successfully approved in China, it would definitely be a good thing, but I'm curious exactly how many paying users it will have. Road conditions in China are much more complicated than in the US. The congested roads, aggressive driving style, serious lack of courtesy, and a large number of illegal non-motor vehicles are also quite a challenge to the FSD. But then again, even though I'm an old driver, I really don't dare to drive in China. If I need to drive home, I probably really need to rent a Tesla with an FSD
Get back to business. My current opinion on Tesla: At around 180, probably between 160 and 200, it fluctuates widely and continuously digests the trap above. Concentrate your chips around 180, then choose a direction to break through. This direction depends not only on Tesla itself, but also on the macro environment and Sino-US relations. It is currently impossible to predict. But if you choose to go up at that time, the increase will not be less than 50%.
If you like the band, you can play by throwing small positions high and low at this stage. If you don't like it, just wait for a breakthrough later, and it will take a huge amount of money.
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$Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$
I was really shocked by this wave of earnings. Google tells everyone that I'm still an older brother, and I haven't become a younger brother! (Idiom: AI is being surpassed by Microsoft)
I used to be bullish on Goog from 136-140, bought it, held it, and sold it when it was around 156. Unfortunately, I went short. But it doesn't matter; I believe this wave of gains is only the beginning, not the end. After all, the reason why my brother's stock has always been tepid is to question: has the search business been taken away by AI? Can the cloud business have a bigger share of the competition with AWS and Azure? Most importantly, has AI already been greatly surpassed by Microsoft?
An earnings report used facts to respond to investors' questions. Google has also gone back from being underrated to being reasonable.
My biggest feeling about this financial report: the overvalued ones fell, the underestimated jumped up, and the oversold ones skyrocketed. It is a reasonable trend of the bull market to adjust and accumulate energy. Everything has returned to a reasonable price, which is conducive to continued growth in the future. I predict, $Amazon(AMZN.US$ with $Apple(AAPL.US$ The same will be true of financial reports. As for Brother Hao $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ It will still be the most heavyweight financial report on the market. It will determine the subsequent trend of AI and all technology stocks. Currently in turmoil, I chose to wait for an opportunity.
Today's operations: $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ I sold it, earned a few points, and replaced all positions $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ ! Microsoft fell back after being blocked, at...
I was really shocked by this wave of earnings. Google tells everyone that I'm still an older brother, and I haven't become a younger brother! (Idiom: AI is being surpassed by Microsoft)
I used to be bullish on Goog from 136-140, bought it, held it, and sold it when it was around 156. Unfortunately, I went short. But it doesn't matter; I believe this wave of gains is only the beginning, not the end. After all, the reason why my brother's stock has always been tepid is to question: has the search business been taken away by AI? Can the cloud business have a bigger share of the competition with AWS and Azure? Most importantly, has AI already been greatly surpassed by Microsoft?
An earnings report used facts to respond to investors' questions. Google has also gone back from being underrated to being reasonable.
My biggest feeling about this financial report: the overvalued ones fell, the underestimated jumped up, and the oversold ones skyrocketed. It is a reasonable trend of the bull market to adjust and accumulate energy. Everything has returned to a reasonable price, which is conducive to continued growth in the future. I predict, $Amazon(AMZN.US$ with $Apple(AAPL.US$ The same will be true of financial reports. As for Brother Hao $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ It will still be the most heavyweight financial report on the market. It will determine the subsequent trend of AI and all technology stocks. Currently in turmoil, I chose to wait for an opportunity.
Today's operations: $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ I sold it, earned a few points, and replaced all positions $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ ! Microsoft fell back after being blocked, at...
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$Microsoft(MSFT.US$
After today's preventative decline, the trend after the earnings report became confusing.
It fell 6% to the 370 support level. In the future, you can seek to stop the decline and rebound, or you can break the position and continue to fall
It rose 6% to 415, which happened to be at MA20. In the future, you can try to break through the rise or fall back if blocked
It seems that the power of space has reached a balance here, which is really interesting![]()
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With this trend, I don't need to gamble with options. However, I drastically reduced my positions around 415 a few days ago because Microsoft broke down. According to the left-right fight theory, I can now buy back some positions in small quantities. It's equivalent to reducing the cost of doing it. So I should be buying some today.
After today's preventative decline, the trend after the earnings report became confusing.
It fell 6% to the 370 support level. In the future, you can seek to stop the decline and rebound, or you can break the position and continue to fall
It rose 6% to 415, which happened to be at MA20. In the future, you can try to break through the rise or fall back if blocked
It seems that the power of space has reached a balance here, which is really interesting
With this trend, I don't need to gamble with options. However, I drastically reduced my positions around 415 a few days ago because Microsoft broke down. According to the left-right fight theory, I can now buy back some positions in small quantities. It's equivalent to reducing the cost of doing it. So I should be buying some today.
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$Meta Platforms(META.US$
This wave of decline in Meta has reversed an island pattern. I call this pattern Wang Ba Gaizi 🐢, which is a very strong bearish pattern. If you want to destroy it, you usually need to do another island-shaped reversal (jump back to the top); otherwise, it can be said that Wang Ba Lai is actually hammered.
With such a huge lid, today's decline is only the beginning, not the end. So I'm not saying I'm going to check it out today, ha. The reason I'm so excited is that I saw an opportunity for a drastic retracement, giving this person who didn't get on the bus a chance to get back on the bus.
First, there were no chips in the previous jump, so how did you go up and how did you get out.
Then, look for strong support below. However, it soared all the way up until now, and there really wasn't any strong support![]()
The probability of getting to the beginning of 3 is very high.
The most optimistic one is to hold the 400 integer mark. It shows that the overall mood is optimistic and full of enthusiasm. Based on current market sentiment, this probability is unlikely.
More optimistic. The 200-day average is around 370-380. Mean regression.
If not so optimistic, the sideways fluctuation range is at the top of the range, around 330-340. That's an underestimate.
In the most pessimistic terms, the sideways market fluctuated at the lower end, around 300-310, which is seriously underestimated. This can't get any lower unless the general market returns to a bear market.
Also, I chose to enter on the right.
However, if I were to pick a stock to bottom recently, I would still prefer Brother Gu $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$
This wave of decline in Meta has reversed an island pattern. I call this pattern Wang Ba Gaizi 🐢, which is a very strong bearish pattern. If you want to destroy it, you usually need to do another island-shaped reversal (jump back to the top); otherwise, it can be said that Wang Ba Lai is actually hammered.
With such a huge lid, today's decline is only the beginning, not the end. So I'm not saying I'm going to check it out today, ha. The reason I'm so excited is that I saw an opportunity for a drastic retracement, giving this person who didn't get on the bus a chance to get back on the bus.
First, there were no chips in the previous jump, so how did you go up and how did you get out.
Then, look for strong support below. However, it soared all the way up until now, and there really wasn't any strong support
The most optimistic one is to hold the 400 integer mark. It shows that the overall mood is optimistic and full of enthusiasm. Based on current market sentiment, this probability is unlikely.
More optimistic. The 200-day average is around 370-380. Mean regression.
If not so optimistic, the sideways fluctuation range is at the top of the range, around 330-340. That's an underestimate.
In the most pessimistic terms, the sideways market fluctuated at the lower end, around 300-310, which is seriously underestimated. This can't get any lower unless the general market returns to a bear market.
Also, I chose to enter on the right.
However, if I were to pick a stock to bottom recently, I would still prefer Brother Gu $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$
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The picture is from yesterday's post. Keep the view unchanged today.
What is wrong with the financial report? The slowdown in growth is reasonable. With such a large base, how can it grow so easily. Capital expenditure, is the low cost of efficiency going back to burning money again? It shouldn't be enough, but layout AI will definitely continue to burn money.
So I plan to wait until the stock price falls into place, at least after exploiting leveraged speculation, and when the 10-year interest rate stops rising, and wait for an opportunity to get on the bus.
$Meta Platforms(META.US$
What is wrong with the financial report? The slowdown in growth is reasonable. With such a large base, how can it grow so easily. Capital expenditure, is the low cost of efficiency going back to burning money again? It shouldn't be enough, but layout AI will definitely continue to burn money.
So I plan to wait until the stock price falls into place, at least after exploiting leveraged speculation, and when the 10-year interest rate stops rising, and wait for an opportunity to get on the bus.
$Meta Platforms(META.US$
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$iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT.US$
Bitcoin didn't do very well this afternoon. It is currently in a critical position. The 20-day EMA (meaning Bitcoin, not an ETF) and the 60-day EMA have now come together. However, the 60-day average will definitely continue to rise, and if the price continues to fall below the 20-day average, it will be weighed down by the EMA and cause the 20-day average to continue to decline. As a result, deaths on the 20-day average intersected with the 60-day average. Once this is the case, it's quite troublesome.
I hope the bulls will step up tomorrow, so that at least the Bitcoin price can reach the 20-day average and stop falling, otherwise it will have to test the 60,000 mark again.
Bitcoin didn't do very well this afternoon. It is currently in a critical position. The 20-day EMA (meaning Bitcoin, not an ETF) and the 60-day EMA have now come together. However, the 60-day average will definitely continue to rise, and if the price continues to fall below the 20-day average, it will be weighed down by the EMA and cause the 20-day average to continue to decline. As a result, deaths on the 20-day average intersected with the 60-day average. Once this is the case, it's quite troublesome.
I hope the bulls will step up tomorrow, so that at least the Bitcoin price can reach the 20-day average and stop falling, otherwise it will have to test the 60,000 mark again.
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$Tesla(TSLA.US$
I only bought one, and it was a fun bet. One hot pot 🍲 turned into several meals, so it's worth being happy. Retail investors come to trade stocks, mainly Tuyilu. Take the initiative to trade in the stock market. If you're not happy, don't do it. There are many ways for Chinese people to make money by doing side jobs in the US, such as investing in spy qqq, buying an investment house, starting a private kitchen if they have the skills, etc., and the benefits are good. When it comes to trading stocks, it's certainly important to make money; it's even more important to be happy.
So, I decided to eat hot pot this weekend! Next week, wrestle! Tasty hot pot and skewers aren't that easy to eat in the US either.
Tesla's fundamentals are still sluggish, but with dreaming and the inevitable overfall, it has experienced an astonishing surge after the earnings report. This is my attitude anyway: bet to win, get off the table quickly, then go eat chicken to avoid losing again.
However, it is definitely the right thing to do to increase market share by relying on cheap models. The future FSD business will be supported by the number of users. Just like the Apple ecosystem, the number of users must be large enough.
Follow-up trend of the tiger crotch: the upper side of the game decided that this was a bear market rebound. If you want to turn cows, it will take a long time to clean up, change hands thoroughly, and get rid of locked up retail customers. I'm not participating in this volatile market. After all, there are still so many good stocks.
A few stocks I've been watching before, updated:
$FactSet Research Systems(FDS.US$ Another wave of decline reached the weekly average of 120 yen. We've all received support here before, but now there's a problem,...
I only bought one, and it was a fun bet. One hot pot 🍲 turned into several meals, so it's worth being happy. Retail investors come to trade stocks, mainly Tuyilu. Take the initiative to trade in the stock market. If you're not happy, don't do it. There are many ways for Chinese people to make money by doing side jobs in the US, such as investing in spy qqq, buying an investment house, starting a private kitchen if they have the skills, etc., and the benefits are good. When it comes to trading stocks, it's certainly important to make money; it's even more important to be happy.
So, I decided to eat hot pot this weekend! Next week, wrestle! Tasty hot pot and skewers aren't that easy to eat in the US either.
Tesla's fundamentals are still sluggish, but with dreaming and the inevitable overfall, it has experienced an astonishing surge after the earnings report. This is my attitude anyway: bet to win, get off the table quickly, then go eat chicken to avoid losing again.
However, it is definitely the right thing to do to increase market share by relying on cheap models. The future FSD business will be supported by the number of users. Just like the Apple ecosystem, the number of users must be large enough.
Follow-up trend of the tiger crotch: the upper side of the game decided that this was a bear market rebound. If you want to turn cows, it will take a long time to clean up, change hands thoroughly, and get rid of locked up retail customers. I'm not participating in this volatile market. After all, there are still so many good stocks.
A few stocks I've been watching before, updated:
$FactSet Research Systems(FDS.US$ Another wave of decline reached the weekly average of 120 yen. We've all received support here before, but now there's a problem,...
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$Tesla(TSLA.US$
I posted a post this morning saying that Tesla may run out of profit after the earnings report. Since there are too many deviations from the long-term moving average, a rebound is likely at any time. But I didn't bet on earnings, so I didn't buy it. Later, in a message with a mooer, I ended up laughing that I could use the money for a hot pot meal to buy a call and have fun. In the past, I was only kidding, but this time I actually spent a few hundred yuan to buy a call.
I never expected it to rise so much after the earnings report. It seems that I can participate often in this kind of small gambling experience in the future, but I will limit the amount to a few hundred yuan each time. After all, I don't want to make money this way. Money from gambling will be lost sooner or later. Deviating too far from the moving average is not a necessary condition for an increase; suppressing financial reports based on this is still gambling. I can only say that winning is slightly greater than losing.
Let's see how many meals of hot pot I can make money tomorrow.
No matter how high this TSLA rebound is, it is a bear market rebound. Of course, if you do a bear market rebound, you can also make a lot of money. But I'm not really interested in this kind of high-risk stuff. It is still necessary to close the moving average, choose a new direction, and successfully break through upward before entering a bull market. In the early days of the bull market, cars will rise steadily in the morning until later.
As for the subsequent trend of technology stocks, I am most concerned $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ As an emerging stock leader, Microsoft's earnings report and Friday PC are very important. This week is really important. Whether to return to the rise or continue to adjust, I'll see you on Friday. If it can return to the rise, it will rise again on Friday...
I posted a post this morning saying that Tesla may run out of profit after the earnings report. Since there are too many deviations from the long-term moving average, a rebound is likely at any time. But I didn't bet on earnings, so I didn't buy it. Later, in a message with a mooer, I ended up laughing that I could use the money for a hot pot meal to buy a call and have fun. In the past, I was only kidding, but this time I actually spent a few hundred yuan to buy a call.
I never expected it to rise so much after the earnings report. It seems that I can participate often in this kind of small gambling experience in the future, but I will limit the amount to a few hundred yuan each time. After all, I don't want to make money this way. Money from gambling will be lost sooner or later. Deviating too far from the moving average is not a necessary condition for an increase; suppressing financial reports based on this is still gambling. I can only say that winning is slightly greater than losing.
Let's see how many meals of hot pot I can make money tomorrow.
No matter how high this TSLA rebound is, it is a bear market rebound. Of course, if you do a bear market rebound, you can also make a lot of money. But I'm not really interested in this kind of high-risk stuff. It is still necessary to close the moving average, choose a new direction, and successfully break through upward before entering a bull market. In the early days of the bull market, cars will rise steadily in the morning until later.
As for the subsequent trend of technology stocks, I am most concerned $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ As an emerging stock leader, Microsoft's earnings report and Friday PC are very important. This week is really important. Whether to return to the rise or continue to adjust, I'll see you on Friday. If it can return to the rise, it will rise again on Friday...
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As the title says.
Although interest rates on 10-year treasury bonds have risen and fallen in the past two days, overall, they have maintained a good bullish ranking pattern.
The last time this trend occurred was in the summer of 2023.
At the time, US stocks had just gone through a beautiful wave of gains in late spring and early summer. TLT prices are also trending sideways.
No one has forgotten what happened since then.
If 10-year treasury bonds repeat this trend, then the long-term bond market will be very “exciting.” It's also the main reason I've been staying away from tlt lately.
As for the vclt I have, even though the dividend rate is over 5%, I plan to reduce my position when the price rises. It's just that there isn't that much pressure, because the dividends are good, which is about the same as holding cash; in the big case, they have survived until interest rates are cut. I didn't plan to invest in the stock market because of this money.
However, the stock side will be better. After all, it has already entered a bull market, so you can refer to the market adjustments from July to September last year. There may be a sharp retracement, but the overall outlook is positive.
All in all, I will keep a close eye on the trend of 10-year treasury bonds. When it ends its upward trend, the market is bound to usher in a beautiful wave of gains.
However, if interest rates continue to rise for too long, some countries with weak economies may collapse.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$
$Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF(VCLT.US$
$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$
Although interest rates on 10-year treasury bonds have risen and fallen in the past two days, overall, they have maintained a good bullish ranking pattern.
The last time this trend occurred was in the summer of 2023.
At the time, US stocks had just gone through a beautiful wave of gains in late spring and early summer. TLT prices are also trending sideways.
No one has forgotten what happened since then.
If 10-year treasury bonds repeat this trend, then the long-term bond market will be very “exciting.” It's also the main reason I've been staying away from tlt lately.
As for the vclt I have, even though the dividend rate is over 5%, I plan to reduce my position when the price rises. It's just that there isn't that much pressure, because the dividends are good, which is about the same as holding cash; in the big case, they have survived until interest rates are cut. I didn't plan to invest in the stock market because of this money.
However, the stock side will be better. After all, it has already entered a bull market, so you can refer to the market adjustments from July to September last year. There may be a sharp retracement, but the overall outlook is positive.
All in all, I will keep a close eye on the trend of 10-year treasury bonds. When it ends its upward trend, the market is bound to usher in a beautiful wave of gains.
However, if interest rates continue to rise for too long, some countries with weak economies may collapse.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$
$Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF(VCLT.US$
$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$
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