$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$
When buying long-term Treasury bonds, you need to think about whether you want to earn interest or spreads.
If you want to earn interest, then you keep lying down for the time being. If inflation is expected to be 2%, then the dividend rate is greater than 2, and your money will not depreciate.
If you want to make a spread, it may not be achieved this year. Given the current economic situation, the reversal of the short-term interest rate is bound to reverse. If the year-end decline is really only two digits, the 2y-10y cross is likely to be greater than 4.5. Now at 4.4% for 10 years, where else can TLT fall?
If you think the US won't go soft, now is the entry point. Think carefully that the yield curve has been upside down for more than 20 months and is down 46 points, and the yield curve is no longer a harbinger of recession?
In conclusion, buyers of long-term bonds will not lose for 20 years, unless the United States dies.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$
The short-term risk is significant.
There are three ways to fix the inversion of 2y and 10y interest rates:
1. There was a soft landing, inflation continued to cool down, and the Federal Reserve slowly cut interest rates. Eventually, us2y gradually declined, and us10y gradually rose, and the inversion was lifted. After that, 2y10y declined simultaneously as inflation cooled down. Short-term losses were bad, and long-term benefits were good.
2. A hard landing, a sudden thunderstorm in finance or real estate, an emergency bailout by the Federal Reserve, US2Y rapidly declined, lifted its inversion, and TLT skyrocketed.
3. If it doesn't land, inflation will not cool down at all, and the economy will not recede. The Federal Reserve can only abandon the 2% target and allow the inflation rate to stay above 3% because it does not want to continue to raise interest rates to damage the economy. Interest rates and inflation have remained high for a long time. Furthermore, interest rates on long-term bonds soared, surpassed short-term bonds, and the inversion was lifted. Although TLT will not plummet, since interest rates are not cut, it will not rise. It only has a dividend yield of 3-4%, and the return is lower than that of other investments. However, with 32 trillion dollars of debt and interest rates above 4%, I am skeptical about how long the US government can hold. I am afraid that in the end, the US government will become insolvent and unable to repay the high amount of interest. Either go bankrupt, or go back to unlimited draining to indulge in hyperinflation. The possibility of letting the whole economy and finance collapse to pay for the bill is basically zero.
I think the last one is unlikely; interest rates will have to be cut sooner or later, so TLT's long-term investment logic is still there, and it may be against the wind in the short term. These two...