$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ When buying lo...
When buying long-term Treasury bonds, you need to think about whether you want to earn interest or spreads.
If you want to earn interest, then you keep lying down for the time being. If inflation is expected to be 2%, then the dividend rate is greater than 2, and your money will not depreciate.
If you want to make a spread, it may not be achieved this year. Given the current economic situation, the reversal of the short-term interest rate is bound to reverse. If the year-end decline is really only two digits, the 2y-10y cross is likely to be greater than 4.5. Now at 4.4% for 10 years, where else can TLT fall?
If you think the US won't go soft, now is the entry point. Think carefully that the yield curve has been upside down for more than 20 months and is down 46 points, and the yield curve is no longer a harbinger of recession?
In conclusion, buyers of long-term bonds will not lose for 20 years, unless the United States dies.
If you want to earn interest, then you keep lying down for the time being. If inflation is expected to be 2%, then the dividend rate is greater than 2, and your money will not depreciate.
If you want to make a spread, it may not be achieved this year. Given the current economic situation, the reversal of the short-term interest rate is bound to reverse. If the year-end decline is really only two digits, the 2y-10y cross is likely to be greater than 4.5. Now at 4.4% for 10 years, where else can TLT fall?
If you think the US won't go soft, now is the entry point. Think carefully that the yield curve has been upside down for more than 20 months and is down 46 points, and the yield curve is no longer a harbinger of recession?
In conclusion, buyers of long-term bonds will not lose for 20 years, unless the United States dies.
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isaac k3 : If interest rates are cut today, wouldn't it be better to buy TLT for the long term? Because as long as interest rates are cut, the roll price will rise
木易君羊OP : This is in theory. But the main effect of falling interest rates is short-term interest rates, long-term rates or inflation.