10baggerbamm : company does a great job of updating but the reality is quantum as a sector is 100% dead all you have to do is look at the leading companies in the space their stocks have been crushed they missed earnings their Outlook right now while it's optimistic long-term these are high beta stocks nobody wants to own them and if you're a contrarian and you think no now's the Time to buy because post war they're going to recover they're not going to be the first ones to bounce back they don't offer the liquidity for institutions that in the event that there's some geopolitical event after the war is over they need to exit and these stocks don't permit that type of liquidity so these are third and fourth tier sectors it will require other sectors to recover first before good news begins to accumulate and these companies warrant an investment where the stocks will trade up in the meantime this is a dead money investment it's collapse from 19 back down to 10 you could buy it here it could be $8 next week I think the markets potentially going 6,000 points slower before the end of this war in which case all of these high beta stocks are screwed

10baggerbamm wya bodhi : because I am the wizard of stocks

10baggerbamm : oh I can tell you where it's going to be I already posted it and I told you how long it would take to get there you're looking below 40,000 if this war goes 5 to 6 weeks
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10baggerbamm xxxjaystation : well in time you'll be okay.. of course it really depends on what companies you hold within the Dow because some are very interest rate sensitive more so than others..

10baggerbamm xxxjaystation : so caterpillars the most at risk I was actually very surprised last year when Bloom Energy took off and gev took off... I was looking for other companies that manufacture big turbines that could be used for data center use. and caterpillar and Siemens are the two other companies. at that time they're dead in the water nobody was buying them and I kept looking at him and thinking why is it they're not buying cat they make massive turbine generators that can easily be used for data centers and if that's the case they'll be able to fill the void for GE vernova because a year ago GE was only backed up like two and a half three years now they're backed out through 2031.
and I didn't follow through I didn't buy cat but it became a data center play and it got overbought and same with modine which is not a Dow stock but modine which missed earnings and lackluster died and say provide cooling all of a sudden institutions piled money day after day into that stock and cause massive overbought conditions just like Caterpillar. so you're going to have a bit of a rollover in cat more so than the others.
McDonald's is always there even 2 years ago when they had their problem where people were getting sick if you're a long-term investor that's when you buy it the stock got knocked down 10-12 bucks it recovered everything is fine with McDonald's. visas and MasterCard are different animals and they face their own challenges as technology evolves they've got to adapt a little bit more than what they've been doing and they're doing deals with other companies because their whole use case can be circumvented and other companies are offering solutions where you don't need visa you don't need MasterCard you're aware of everything I'm sure. but Visa is an 800 lb gorilla and they'll survive so the Dow will be back to a new high sometime this year but right now technically it looks like crap it's falling off a cliff it's the worst of all the indexes

10baggerbamm xxxjaystation : you have to understand these 30 stocks excluding Saiyan video there's cyclical Giants they're mature companies that have very little growth they have low single digit growth the vast majority of them so you have money that flows in and out of sectors based off of economic conditions if consumer spending comes into question the first thing they're going to talk about is how expensive McDonald's is for the average American that a family of four is going to spend 55 to $60 to eat out at McDonald's. what you have as a rotation that takes place and it used to be called the dogs of the Dow theory. every year you sell your top five winners and you buy the five worst performers from the prior year because you get an equalization that takes place stocks go from overvalued they get a multiple expansion but they really don't have any growth they don't have the revenues to drive the valuation so you get a multiple expansion because their story stocks and then they get overvalued relative to their historic growth rate and then money goes into the lower valuation companies.
so it's not a matter of McDonald's is the best because their growth isn't terrific nvidia's got the best growth but Nvidia has risk. if this war drags out you have the gulf nation states have to buy Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Qatar and they've all pretty much said look we'll reevaluate the $2 trillion dollar investment because this war is hurting our countries economy so if they cancel that Nvidia it's going down 25 30% and the markets crashing we'll see a 10% correction it'll be brutal tech stocks will get destroyed and GE vernova goes over a cliff because of 2 trillion comes out of the US data center build out that whole story comes to a grinding hole real quick.
so buying and holding individual Dow stocks is your personal choice it wouldn't be mine but we're two different people and we have different investment objectives and you buy what you're comfortable with, what I'm saying about McDonald's is it's always going to be around but it goes up and it goes down relative to the story if there's an outbreak and people get sick like happened 2 years ago the stock gets hit if you're a long-term investor that's when you buy it if you were short-term trader you just got hammered.
you know let's just say the next 20 years from McDonald's I don't think they're going to be as good as the last 20 and the same thing goes with Nvidia the next 20 won't be as good as the last five. Visa Mastercard everything being done on the blockchain it changes the Dynamics immensely so yesterday's heroes can become tomorrow's dinosaurs.

10baggerbamm xxxjaystation : caterpillar became a data center play no different than utility companies a little over a year and a half ago out of nowhere they went from being just a dividend play to wow they own nuclear they become a data center play and then you got to multiple expansion with utility stocks. GE vernova has an enormous backlog as long as you don't get a cancellation the $2 trillion dollars which means hopefully this war comes to an end within the four to five weeks if not sooner gev is fine
but understand that as this Market rolls over Dow stocks are part of an index and the entire index gets sold that's what happens it has nothing to do with anything other than tire baskets of stock are sold all at once.

10baggerbamm OP 70193418 : well it has less to do with the interest rates it has more to do with their investment in private credit and the fact that they restricted the liquidations and a position people were asking for 10% and they kept them at 5%, these investments were meant to be held to maturity and not to have random liquidations but because of everything that's going on people wanted money they gave money so now this company is lumped in with everybody else that may have invested too much at too high of evaluation in companies in the software sector

10baggerbamm : this is why I told everybody Rally's are meant to be sold don't buy a rally sell the open sell calls on the open if you have options roll them on the open because nobody wants to go long on Friday.. let alone
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