10baggerbamm : but I thought there is software company one that flips real estate why would it matter about the jobs report

10baggerbamm OP Tazzzzer72 : right now the futures are indicated to lower across the board so we'll see pi save the Day I think rallies are going to be sold if you get a good CPI number and you get a reversal I don't think it's going to be sustained I think it'll be sold into I don't think people are going to want to hold risk going over the weekend additionally you're going to have a lot of margin calls I mean this Market is going to shock the hell out of people when they open up their brokerage statements accounts because all you hear in the news is Dallas hitting new highs but beneath the surface you got stocks down 20 30 40 50% in 2 weeks and in many instances there's no negative news with the company. people are going to open up their statements and think oh there must be an error because why the hell is my account down this much when all I hear is the market setting new highs. and the amount of margin calls are through the roof right now if you're leveraged it's sheer destruction that's taking place so you're going to have more liquidations and that's why I think if we do get a decent CPI number I don't see this Market reversing today I think you'll see the same type of thing you're going to have further liquidations and those stocks that are collapsing short sellers are going to pile on yet again

10baggerbamm OP Tazzzzer72 : we're in the same boat and this boat started to go down from last year I mean from October to December it was definable because you had tax loss selling and that was understandable in various sectors but this is brutal I mean it is every day a loss and the sectors that are rallying are very few and the companies that are rallying really have no significant increase in revenue to validate the multiple expansion so the relative strength of the stocks that are trading higher are in the mid seventies right now I mean they're in an extreme overbought space and they're trading higher their significantly higher than their 50-day moving average but you have money keeps pouring into these companies and everything else is just getting butchered.

10baggerbamm OP Tazzzzer72 : so if you were stopped out two weeks ago you're fine but if you're in companies that have had good earnings you think rationally okay I've been through sell-offs before the market will come down a little bit the buyers will step up and we'll begin to rebuild
but that's not happening because the rallies are virtually non-existent and then the selling commences again.
solely mental anxiety is insane right now because your face with this logic okay the earnings are good the growth is good the company is on Pace but you have the stocks down 20 30 40% in a couple of weeks I should have stopped out and every day I can hit the cell button but I don't because logically my brain's telling me the business is firing on all cylinders and fundamentals ultimately win and buyers will come back but my screens telling me to get the fuck out because I'm getting killed every day and every day that I don't sell I'm making the wrong decision and it is very troubling because this doesn't make any sense to me what's happening and it is not a rotation that's the word that they want to drain and pound into our head but this is not a rotation you don't have a company like lemonade go down 39% inside of 2 weeks because of a rotation they're an insurance company for Christ's sake you don't have real estate companies collapse 20% in 2 days oh it's AI is going to take away their business model bullshit because you can make that case for everything every single company really it's very simple let's say this general motors is going to have ai agents you don't need any people for any phone work whatsoever any back office administrative work whatsoever and humanoids are going to build every car in a plant that sounds great right the profits are going to soar oh no the problem is everybody's out of a job and no one will have any money to buy a general motors car so let's crash the stock. this is the same type of mentality that is I call it the locust effect because it's eating every single company and spitting them out and the stocks are collapsing this is not a rotation it is mass destruction and in most instances most cases there's no change in fundamentals of these companies but they want you to be told in every station it's a rotation that's taking place so when the media is telling you something I will tell you this they're fucking lying they are lying to you because these stations are owned by corporations and these are the same fucking corporations that lied and told us about Biden being sharp as a tack. so that's why I'm very skeptical and I'm making the wrong decisions now because the right decision would have been to go to 100% cash and avoid this significant sell-off that's happening but yet logically you say if the earnings are good and the revenue is good and the company is on Pace you don't sell because ultimately fundamentals went out but now you're sitting on a stock that sound 30 or 40% or 50% in a month that sucks got a fucking double for it to get back where it was

10baggerbamm OP Tazzzzer72 : so I'm down a couple million bucks quicker than I've ever lost money in my life and the right thing would be to sell everything but Murphy's law dictates that the minute I do you're going to get a reversal in these stocks and nothing stings more than selling at the bottom.
and that's my dilemma but yet everyday I watch this bloodshed this hurricane destroy industries and sectors and companies that I own like you and by the end of the day you're like fuck me I should have sold it at the beginning of the day I should have sold at the beginning of the week I mean I dropped a million this week it's not even fucking Friday yet.. so I'm struggling because it's one thing if you're in a company that misses earnings blows It wide Open and guides lower.
so I don't have an answer for you because when you reach that maximum level of pain and you sell that's typically where people look at a stock and say oh my god look how cheap this thing is I'm going to buy it and they make out and you lose and now for several sessions you've got to 10 15% reversal in that stock from what it fell and you realize how much money it would have put back into your account but you made nothing now because you're back into Cash
so I don't have an answer for you because I'm in the same boat as you and every day you wake up and you think well let's see what sector and what companies they're going to destroy today.
common sense and logic dictate that fundamentals went out the companies that are growing revenue growing margins win and I've been through a lot of sell-offs and some are the same and some are different this is entirely different and in many aspects this is much worse than what happened last April because last April we had the broader Market selling off every day you had this slow burn and every day you could exit but here it's different you have this rapid mass destruction this rapid devaluation of stocks where they're marked down 10 15 20 30 40 50% in rapid succession and you don't know where it's going to end
I use technicals all the time and they're not working here you say a stock's going to bounce here's a resistance it's bounce multiple times off of this level buyers will come in and it goes right through it and the algorithmic program starts selling the shit out of the stock so what do you do when fundamentals are not working and technicals are not working because that's the boat I'm in right now and I'm like lost at sea trying to figure out what the fuck is going on but I can guarantee you this this is not a rotation it's bullshit that is we're not in a fucking rotation that's what they're trying to tell you is happening but that's not what's going on

10baggerbamm : look what we have here the manufacturer of the flux capacitor used in Back to the Future. fusion Energy at its finest.. ultimately it evolved into Mr fusion which conveniently fits into the back of any car just like a DeLorean.
I have no idea what this company does but with a name like that it's the only thing that came to mind it's 2:11 I'm going to try to get it an hour and a half sleep

10baggerbamm : it's had multiple spikes in the past and each subsequent spike is getting lower all you have to do is pull a year chart you can see what I'm telling you is true basically the prior bag holders are using any future rally to get out of

10baggerbamm : inverse Cramer
inverse Lee Tom

10baggerbamm : it's spring time is the earliest possibility of a vote and that's already been disclosed a week and a half ago that's what members of Congress said is that they were assured that it will go for a vote in spring so you're talking several months away
what that means is this quarter is a waste there's not going to be any clarity and the reality is any resolution is going to be a reduction in the rewards that they will be offering. so what could this mean it's called a mob shakedown every Monday my boys are going to be coming by and you're going to have a brown bag for me do you understand that for that you get protection. I could realistically see that a percentage of the rewards basically dividends or interest call it whatever you want that result in staking from stable coin a portion of that's going to get paid back to these large Banks somehow it gets paid into like an insurance program let's call it so these large Banks your Bank of America Morgan Stanley JP Morgan basically all of the guys that worded the current legislation that would benefit them and not coinbase I think you're going to see a reduction in the rewards at coinbase will be able to receive and a percentage of what they do receive right now is going to go into this sharing account let's call it and we'll be redistributed to these large member banks call it a shakedown and a distribution. you have to understand that coinbase will not get everything that they have right now because if you are going to have a negotiation. either coinbase has to become a physical Bank by every compliance standard and that way the money's from stable coin fall under the banking jurisdiction and banking guidelines and I don't see coinbase doing that or they are going to be receiving a reduced rewards amount it reduced level of interest that they can distribute to their investors you are not going to get both. so it's important you understand that which means the earnings revenue model for coinbase is going to be REDUCED. SO YOU NEED TO EXPECT TO SEE EARNINGS REVISIONS LOWER IN THIS FASTEST GROWTH SEGMENT FOR COINBASE.

10baggerbamm OP Hungry for Life : I think you could consider you're going to need multiple phases within the real estate market.
right now you have an accumulation phase because there is a sentiment shift and some of the sentiment shipped is everything but Tech it's a migration away from tech stocks which are getting cream daily you have the AI will bankrupt you model which is causing stocks to Crater and various industries that money is going to look to go elsewhere. well last time I checked AI is not going to replace people from building houses in the home building industry. at least not yet obviously there's a few technologies like you have 3D printed homes in Texas they built a small development it's very efficient but it's not for every Market it's basically on a test basis to see what it can do and it has some merit and potential but you're obviously limited in design style.
so if we consider this phase one that's happening now is you have a market sentiment you have the desire for president Trump to boost the housing marketplace between $200 billion dollars in mortgage-backed securities that it could be more 1 million Trump homes that he's challenging the home builders to construct and again that could ramp up it could be two million homes.
at present you only have two home builders that are signed up that are enrolled I can guarantee you that you will see many many more home builders sign up for this program it still it is construction phase let's call it they're still trying to outline how the program will function but I have no doubt you are going to see a significant amount of home builders sign up because why not.
the next phase is we're going to need to see a material decline in interest rates so you got the stocks under accumulation right now for the reasons outlined above and the next phase is you need to have lower interest rates. so the 10-year treasury needs to come down into the threes and stay into the threes and have a gradual decline and that's going to impact the cost of borrowing for a 30-year mortgage.
when this gradually declines you're going to see home construction increase and you're going to see home sales increase so that's your second phase. you need confirmation from the home builders that home sales are accelerating and you need to see the revenues increasing and you need to see their profits increasing which means they need to stop giving away all of these incentives to have people sign up and what are incentives? this could be an automatic upgrade from a formica countertop to a quartz or granite countertop this could be an upgrade from carpet to tile or carpet to wood floors this could be an upgrade in the material construction of kitchen cabinets from OSB with laminate to solid wood surfaces. there's other things that typically are offered but these all cost money and these are costing profits to the home builders so these types of things are going to get rolled back and removed as demand increases as a result of interest rates coming down.
so when we have confirmation and you will see the profits increasing the sales increasing but most importantly the margins increasing that's going to be your tailwind in these stocks that's going to boost them significantly higher than where they are right now.
if you were to roll back my comments on this ETF to last year middle of the year I told people if you're buying this ETF I thought you were going to see significant gains by June of next year and by that time you're not going to want to sell you're going to want to hold it because I thought we were going to solidly be in a real estate rally. I said the same thing with the regional Bank ETF DPST. we kind of got kicked off by 6 months because of that actions or I should say lack of actions. but I gave you the price targets back then and I think I'm going to be spot on with what both of these ETFs achieve by the time we are in a real estate boom which it should be kicking off mid-year we should have our confirmation which means Q3 3rd quarter earnings should be spectacular and Q4 which again Q4 puts us basically right now next year and it is a long ways away but I think you're going to see dramatically higher numbers in both of the ETFs pretty much in alignment with what I had said last June.

10baggerbamm : terrific I only sleep 4 hours a night right now what the hell do I need to even sleep 4 hours for.. I think it's ridiculous 24/7 365 is going to produce massive Stock exchange crashes you have no cooldown period whatsoever