The biggest IPO flops in recent history

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IPOs can be risky and speculative investments and may not be appropriate for every investor. Learn more at www.sec.gov/files/IPO/investorbulletin.pdf. Hi, welcome to Mobile Money by Moomoo. I'm your host Justin Zacks, Vice President of Strategy at Moomoo Technologies. I've spent my whole career in and around financial markets.

It's something I have a real passion for. This is a show that helps investors gain a better understanding of markets and their money. The IPO market was stronger in 2023 than in 2022, but both the number of IPOs and the total amount of money raised was still low by historical standards. While many of 2023 IPOs performed well along with the general market, a few were of the high profile ones have struggled.

Today, I will explain to you more about how IPOs work and break down how they did in 2023. We'll explore some of the more recent IPO flops and the reasons behind them. Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results and then investing is risky and the landscape continues to evolve. Before I get into 2023 IPOs and the best than the worst, I want to go over a little bit exactly what an IPO is.

So IPOs stands for Initial Public Offering. It's the first time a company offers its shares of stock to the general public. So basically there are private companies and there are public companies. And if you are a private company and want to go public, you need to do an IPO. These IPOs are often listed on an exchange such as the NYSE or the Nasdaq, and they also need to be registered with the SEC in the main form that is used is called an S-1.

So if you were a investor in one of these private companies that is going to go IPO, you have your private shares and at the IPO they would be converted into public shares in order to help facilitate this process. Private companies will hire underwriters. These are usually investment banks to help with this process, as well as to market the potential offering to gauge demand and establish a price or valuation for the IPO.

Note the word initial. This is the first time a company offers shares. There are what's also called secondary offerings. This is when a public company, a company that's already public, that already had its IPO, also tries to raise capital. These secondary offerings tend to be not as volatile usually as the primary IPO because you already have a pretty good idea of what the public wants to buy and sell a stock for.

All you have to know is that they're adding a certain number of shares for the initial public offering. It's a much trickier thing to try to understand what the valuation is going to be, and each investor has a lot of differences of what that might happen. So you might see a lot of volatility around IPOs, both on the upside and the downside.

But why do companies go IPO to begin with? And the you know, obviously the main reason is to raise capital and that can help them invest in their business. But that's not the only reason. A lot of times they do it to provide liquidity to existing shareholders. A lot of the founders and the venture capital funds and the angel investors that they might have been invested in these companies a long time.

And so they want to be able to sell some of their shares and have an exit. So it's called an exit strategy. So a lot of times that's one of the reasons. Another reason is just publicity. Public companies are some of the most well-known companies in the world, so that really helps your brand image and it can help you sell your goods and services.

Additionally, you can widen your investor base. A lot of times companies want to have a, you know, may only have a dozen or so or, you know, less than 100 investors As a private company and as a public company, you may have thousands. And this is really great to have a wide investor base in case one investor wants to sell.

It's not such a big deal. To give you an example of how the math might work on one of these IPOs, say you have Company X, Y, Z, they already have a million shares outstanding and they plan to just do an IPO where they will continue to have that million shares, but they will sell 10% of those shares.

So they're going to sell a hundred thousand shares to the general public at $100 a share. So in this case, you would raise $10 million at a total valuation of $100 million. And again, and underwriter usually facilitates this process. So they would go to their best clients and offer the shares for $100. So the only way you can get into the IPO is through your broker or an underwriter or to get that $100 a share.

Otherwise you would have to buy or sell the stock on the secondary market after it already goes IPO. So if you wonder why, why can't I get that price immediately? That's, that's the IPO price. You would have to go through the underwriter or a broker to get that price. After that, it's the secondary market. So you may have to pay more and sometimes you will get to pay less for the IPO after it already begins trading on one of the exchanges.

And you'll see the first day of trades on the exchange. The exchanges will try to line up the bids and offer a lot of times they'll wait quite into the afternoon or at least the late morning to line up all these bids and offers. They just don't want to go ahead with a thin book. By doing this, it helped stabilize the price after it actually begins trading.

And sometimes that seems to help and sometimes not so much. And we'll get into a few of those examples later in the podcast. Over 100 IPOs with a market cap of at least $50 million price this year, that's over a 50% increase from 2022. Total proceeds were almost $20 billion. This year, and that's over 150% increase from the previous year.

Sounds like a lot of great numbers, but you have to realize that 2022 was just one of the worst years for IPOs ever. So if you took out 2020 to 2023 is actually the worst year for IPOs since 2016 on both a value and an absolute number basis. The industrial sector had the largest number of IPOs, and in general, smaller issuers have outperformed the larger ones in 2023.

But everyone really wants to know about the big boys, the bigger IPOs and the three biggest IPOs of 2023 raised about half of all the proceeds. So you can really see what an outsized influence they have on the actual dollar values. And only one of them might be considered a success. But let's let's quickly review the top three Arm, Kenvue, and Birkenstock.

Let's take a look at the biggest and most successful large IPO so far in 2023, and that's ARM Holdings. And what we've really seen as a theme in all of 2023 is investors really clamoring for anything AI and here we have a a British chipmaker which makes smartphone chips for almost every smartphone on the planet. And so they are really investors are really looking out for this company.

And they were really interested in it. And it led to a one day pop following the IPO of almost 25%. And as of December 22nd, the stock is up about 42%. We did see a little bit of a, you know, a sell off in the stock a month or two after it, but it has come back. It is expensive, though, relative to the overall market and relative to a lot of the chip stocks.

Its forward price earnings multiple is 70 times. So it's really going to have to do a lot of growing to justify that valuation. But they were able to raise almost $5 billion in the IPO and SoftBank still holds about 90% of the company. While AI remains hot in tech generally in 2023, some of the consumer facing companies didn't fare quite as well in the IPO market.

The second largest IPO of the year Kenvue which raised about 3.8 billion, is a spinoff from Johnson and Johnson. It's their consumer company. They're, you know, wanted to focus on the health care, so they decided to spin off their consumer company and its one day performance was down about 0.7% the day of the day of the IPO.

And it's been down almost 3% of as of December 22nd. The stock, obviously, consumer companies not going to have the type of volatility you'll see with some of these newer companies that don't have as much earnings. You know, this is a relatively solid company in terms of their earnings profile and earnings volatility. So you'll see it go up and go down, but not quite as much because a lot of it was already known.

So they're trading right around over 17 times forward earnings for this company. The third largest IPO is German sandal maker Birkenstock. And it's really interesting, such a fascinating company founded in 1774 and they finally decide to go public. The CEO said, We see ourselves as the oldest startup on earth and this is the reason they went public and maybe they should have stayed private.

I hate to say that, but if you look at the stock performance in the first day, it was down almost 13%. They raised just over $1,000,000,000. But that -13% was the fifth worst IPO of over $1,000,000,000 in the last ten years. It has clawed back a little bit and it's now just above the flatline as of December 22nd.

But it is still a bit pricey for a shoemaker at 44 times forward earnings. So, again, this is another company that is looks to have to have grow into their valuation. So it'll be really quite interesting to see what happens. But overall, you know, these large IPOs generally don't close lower after the first day. Something like around 80% of them are close higher.

So here we had two of them that were closing lower, and that's generally considered somewhat of a failure. You know, you obviously want to make the people that are getting in on the IPO price a little bit of money the first day you want to have it kind of solid. You want to be in there buying and

here's two cases where that didn't happen. And part of that may be that there was just such a strong demand from the initial people that were interested in the company. There's just hasn't been that many IPOs. So Kenvue obviously just such a well-known brand. And in Birkenstock, you know, so many people have wanted to get their hands on this company for obviously centuries and they haven't been able to unless you're in the private market.

And that's been a private company for a really long time. And lastly, just want to mention another relatively large IPO. They raised 660 million. That's Instacart, Maple Bears, the company's name. It's a grocery delivery service. And it also did not do particularly well. Very interesting, though, though. It had a interesting one day pop of over 12%. But unfortunately, that was pretty much the high of the year and it's down over 20% from its IPO price as of December 22nd.

And again, also a little bit expensive for compared to some of these other companies that are forward P/E of about 78. Well, more companies came public in 2023 than in 2022. It still again, was not a lot and a lot of this is many good reasons there are for going public. There are some other reasons why companies have kind of stopped going public or more hesitant to do so.

Obviously, interest rates have played a big role in this, but a lot of it is the development of the private market, of private equity. There's a lot more money available for these companies to borrow. There is a lot more interest in these private funding rounds that hadn't been around 20 or 30 years ago. And the next topic I wanted to touch on is the regulatory landscape.

And the FCC really has kind of a tough job. They really want to see companies come public and encourage capital formation, but at the same and at the same time, they want to make sure they protect the investor and make sure everything's transparent. And then on the companies side, they know they don't want to have too many regulatory burdens and they're sometimes afraid of transparency with their financials, which they have kept private for so long since the beginning of being a company.

So the probably the biggest change we've seen this century is the Jobs Act of 20, 2012. And that really relaxed the regulations regarding a lot of the IPO filings and information disclosures and communications, all these things. And really what that did initially was for the smaller companies and some of later legislation has changed that to make it for all companies.

Probably the biggest change is the idea of a confidential filing. It's the idea that you as a private company can send some information to the FCC. You want to immediately be made public and you're kind of testing the waters, kind of find out what the investor demand might be, because a lot of companies, they want to go public, but they're not quite sure.

But they don't want to go and just put everything on the kitchen table, say, here's everything we have. It's something that could be detrimental from a competitive standpoint. So this these changes in confidential filings make that a much easier process. And the traditional IPO is not the only way to come public. You can have a direct listing in in more recently, what became super popular in 2021 was SPACs.

And that's basically an existing company that doesn't really do anything but is just what they call a blank check company. It's just go ahead, go ahead and create that initial structure and then a private company is then demerged or reverse merged into that company. And so it's just kind of a way around the traditional IPO process and it's burned a lot of investors.

This has a lot to do with the financial projections and other things that are made in the SEC filings. There hasn't been that type of liability that you would have for traditional IPOs. And the SEC is looking to change that. They're looking to introduce some rulemaking that would allow imposed liability on some of the underwriters of these banks that these SPACs stage.

And this would be in line with your traditional IPOs. And again, this is for any misrepresentations or exposure to, you know, financial projections that are made. You just can't go and say, you know, I expect this company to just be the biggest company ever. You have to have something to back that up. And speaking about SPACs, there weren't very many in in 2023, and I think a lot of investors had grown weary to the price decreases in a lot of them.

And so we did see a few in one or probably probably the most interesting one is, is Vinfast. Vinfast is a Vietnamese EV maker, which is just beginning to start manufacture cars for the US market in the Europe market and it did a SPAC. But the interesting part here is, you know, when I talked about ARM before, SoftBank sold about 10% of ARM here Vinfast when when the SPAC originally started trading, you know, as Vinfast, it really only had about 1.3 million share float.

Basically the owner of Vinfast owned almost the entire float. So what can happen in that case is investors will go chasing. There's just not enough shares available. And so, you know, most of these SPACs start around $10 and we saw Vinfast run up to $93. you know, when it when it when it first kind of came up to the market.

And that to give you an idea at one point it was bigger than any automobile company except for Toyota and Tesla. And this is a company that measures its quarterly revenue in millions, not billions. To give you an idea of where this company is and it's not profitable, so that has corrected at one point it came almost at a low of about four and a half, just above four and a half.

It now trades $8 and something. But just to give you an idea, these types of things or SPACs or any IPO that has a are small float and it's something to look at when you when you look at these IPOs, see how big the float is because the float is super small, it could be extremely volatile and people will tend investors may tend to chase some of these momentum plays up and on the downside.

So you could see wild swings up, wild swings down. So it's also very important to look at, you know, how many shares as a percent of the entire company is. Is the private company selling into that IPO? Are there going to be enough to meet that demand? And the more shares there are, the the steadier and more likely you will have a less volatility in that type of trading.

Before we get into some of the historical pops and drops the biggest in the best IPOs and some of the the worst. If you think about how will we define that? And it's really kind of subjective. So one of the ways you can define it is the one day performance. I talked a little bit about that before. You know, obviously the underwriters really want the IPO to succeed.

The company wants it to succeed. So usually they price them a little bit below where the actual demand is. And again, only 20% of IPOs close that first day below that IPO price. So obviously, though, the one day performance, if you have a really bad one day performance, that that could be you could call that a bad IPO, at least it is initially for the company.

And for the people that bought the IPO at the IPO pricing and for the underwriters, it doesn't look good for them. It's really a pricing a IPO is really about being kind of like the three bears, Right. You know, you go in to there and you don't want it's too hot, you don't want to too cold. You kind of want it just right.

And getting it just right is is kind of difficult because if you have that huge initial pop, you know, you can say that's successful, but a lot of times it sells right back off. So you have this volatility that a lot of investors don't want to see. And then there's longevity. You know, how how long is the company been around?

You know, where where is it after its IPO ten or 20 years later? A lot of times you can measure an IPO successful by the company's ultimate success. And we'll talk a little bit about some of the most successful companies now, some of the largest companies in the world that went IPO decades ago. Even then, you can say, you know, well, what if a company had a really good run?

Look at General Motors, the original general Motors. Right. Went IPO in 1916, but then went bankrupt in 2009. Was it successful? It was the largest automaker by sales for in the world for 77 years. So it sounds like a success to me. But ultimately the investors that got in at the end there, you know, a lost almost all their money when when the company went bankrupt.

So it's an interesting thing to think about. You know what how you know, how do you measure the success of an IPO? So with that as a pretext, let's look at what may be considered by the media and other pundits, Some of the largest losers or some of the biggest flops in IPO history. And we're going to talk about a few different ones that are all different in different ways.

And they've all flopped in different ways. And probably maybe the most famous IPO flopped because it became a symbol of the 99 2000 tech bubble or of the idea of jump in first and ask question later is Pets.com. And this was a company that sold online pet supplies and they also, you know, helped to ship these pet supplies.

And it was it was a really difficult business. They had five online competitors. Bulky items were difficult to ship, but they did have a really famous sock puppet in all their commercials that that talked to people. And it even had its own balloon in the 1999 Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. So they had all that hype. And so they were able to raise $82 million in in their February 2000 IPO.

The shares debuted at 11, but quickly, the company continued to burn cash and had a bunch of losses and within a year they were bankrupt. In the day they went bankrupt, the stock was trading at at $0.22. And so it would Pets.com is really a lesson in a lot of things. I mean, they were backed by Amazon and, you know, everyone thought, well, if Amazon's backing this company, it's got to be a great company.

They weren't looking into what their cash burn rates were. You know, is it a solid business model here? You know, they had a similar business model to Amazon, but they obviously had much more competition in pet foods, a lot more expensive to ship than books. There's a lot more logistical problems. And then ultimately, to be successful, as Amazon was, you needed to expand beyond pet food.

And then they didn't really have a plan to do that. So all of those things were red flags and a lot of people didn't care. They jumped right in. And what I want to talk about now is, you know, when you're taking investment advice or looking to others for investment advice, you really need to do your own homework and think about what you think about the company.

Just because Amazon was in there, that doesn't mean it's going to be a great investment. You just can't rely on other people to do the due diligence to vet the company, its financials, its prospect, its business model that really relies upon you as the investor, something that you as an individual really need to do. The second company I want to talk about is the Globe.com.

It's soared over 600% on its debut in 1998, a social networking service and so, you know, by the previous definition, you might say, well, this was a very successful IPO. But, you know, that was a short lived. And we talked about this before. There was just so much excitement and buzz around social media and it followed the Earth Web IPO.

And again, so many of these IPOs that don't do well in the long term follow, you know, a really successful company because people think, well, that that can then be replicated. And so then people just are willing to pay a crazy amounts of money that does don't really relate to what the business was doing. You know, to give you an idea when it went when it went public, it had nine month financials, it had in the nine months it had revenues of $2.7 million, million million dollars, and it had a net loss of 11.5 million for those nine month period.

I mean, it wasn't making significant amount of money at that time. It was only founded in 1995. So it was de-listed in 2002. And it actually still trades over the counter. And around 18 cents the last time I looked at it, which is which is kind of crazy. The third more recent IPO that a lot of people were really interested in is like so a lot of the failures can be big, right?

So the bigger something is, the bigger failure is an absolute dollar terms, even though a company might not go bankrupt or and so probably one of the most recent IPO flops is Rivian automotive and it went IPO in 2021 and it is actually the fifth largest IPO ever it when IPO it's $78 a share raising almost $12 billion and that that valued the company at approximately 66 and a half billion dollars that was $78.

Now the company's only trading for $24 a share. And part of that may be due to that same idea of, you know, Rivian manufactures electric vehicles, particularly trucks. And Tesla has been so successful in that space and people, you know, maybe thought Rivian was going to be the new Tesla or it might overtake Tesla. And so they were willing to really bid the stock up.

At one point its market cap traded at over $100 billion and now it's barely over $20 billion. So, you know, again, just people following the crowd falling in here. It's not just retail traders that are doing this. You know, you can't have a $12 billion IPO without a lot of institutions getting in there. So the institutions are sometimes make the same mistakes that a lot of retail investors do.

That's they're just following the crowd and they say, well, this company is going to be the next whatever it is. And here people thought it was going to be the next Tesla, and maybe it will be one day. But right now, investors have soured on the stock a bit and it has been kind of bumping in these mid twenties for about the last year.

What about the best performing IPOs? And really, when I think of the best performing IPOs, I just think about stocks that have continued to do well for decades and have had outsized performance and have beat the market by a handy amount. And probably the and they've become really big companies and probably the number one leaders in their space in the first of those would be a company like Apple which has really found its footing in in mobile phones but has also obviously a you know a computer manufacturer and it does a lot of other things.

But it went public in December 12th, 1980, $22 a share. But that's when you think about the share price. You just you have to account for splits. So the stock split five times since the IPO, since. So if you had bought it for 22, you now would own it for an adjusted price of $0.10, only $0.10. So if you want to look at the return and I'm just going to give you an approximate number so these numbers are so large, you really it almost it's hard to wrap your head around it.

So apples, if you would, you know, got in it. That IPO is now up about 177,000%. Just a crazy number, you know, now trading, you know, almost near $200 a share. And another one that's very similar is in the video. It's it's much more recent IPO, January 22nd, 1999. And it went public at $12 a share. And again, adjusted for those splits, it would be about $0.40.

Now the stock is trading again close to $500 a share, a bit bit under, and it's up about 124,000% since the IPO. If you got it at that IPO, just just some crazy numbers. So that gives you a good idea of some of the the best and some of the worst IPOs. But a lot of you may be thinking about trading an IPO, you know, on that first day.

And you might think, well, why do some of these IPOs trade way above their IPO price or way below their IPO price on on that first day? And there's a lot of reasons. And to really kind of begin to understand it, you need to understand, you know, what the underwriters, the investment bankers do is what they do, what's called build the book.

So they're looking for a bunch of people, you know, investors, to give orders or give indications of how much they might want to buy. And at what price. And then ultimately they set a range of that price and then whittle it down into the actual price. So it's it's kind of a art more than a science. A lot of times.

And they don't always get it right. And part of the reason that they don't is because it's influenced by a lot of things and ultimately supply and demand. But a lot of it's investor stickiness. It's like, are these people going to be they trading the stock ten times the first day or are they going to hold it for ten years or, you know, and a lot of the investor base, you know, are the long term investors, long term funds that are going to invest in this are the short term people that are going to get out right away.

That's just so important. Also, a lot also has to do with the psychology in the market at the time. Is the market going really crazy? Is it going down a lot? Is there a lot of risk on or risk off for for that sector? Is there a lot of interest in in the area that the company is in?

Again, if it's if it's an AI stock this year, there was tons of interest. So that may be cause people to bid it up beyond the IPO price. All things you should think about when you're going to try to invest or trade a stock on that first day of the IPO. So when you see these IPOs doing well or not doing well or there's not that many IPOs or there are a lot IPOs, you know, what does it mean for you as an investor?

What does it mean for the markets overall? What does it mean for the economy? What does it mean for the companies? You know, IPOs are cyclical and they're partly driven by economic cycles, but ultimately, again, driven by supply and demand. When IPOs do well, investors a lot of times want more IPOs. And so it becomes this cyclical thing where if the IPO prices go up for that IPO, then then people want to get into more IPOs and it becomes, you know, just a hot area to invest in.

And this also works in reverse. And then on the supply side, that's partly driven by investor demand. The more investors want IPOs or one a particular companies stock and are willing to pay for it, the more likely companies are willing to come public. But it's also driven by the economy cycles in the economy as well as the private market valuation.

So if you think about all the interest rates have gone up recently and this has decreased private market valuations for a lot of private companies and most of them will be unwilling to go public because they want to make sure their existing investors are able to get out at the last funding round valuation or possibly even higher. So So they'll wait until the market gets better, until those private market valuations come more in line to what they recently were.

So that was one of the main reasons we haven't seen a lot of IPOs in 2000, 22, 2023. But as as the interest rates come down, we may see those private market valuations come back up and you may see more IPOs. We'll have to wait for 2024 to see what happens there. So you might think, well, let me track some of these IPOs and the IPO market and that'll give me a good idea of what might happen in the future for the overall market.

And it doesn't really work that way. I'll give you a good example. You know, 2007 was a really good year for IPOs, but a recession and a stock market drop followed that. So just because we've had, you know, a poor IPO market in 2022, we saw the market, the overall market rip in in 2023 and 2023.

We've seen a better IPO market. But that does not mean necessarily mean anything for the overall market for 2024. So don't try to read into what's going on with IPOs. There's a lot of different factors that I just talked about that go into that economics, supply and demand, private market, all these types of things go into it and shouldn't be used to try to forecast what the overall market will do going forward.

So what will 2024 hold for the IPO market? Obviously, that's very difficult for anyone to forecast. But what I will tell you is if private market valuation improve and interest rates come down and continue to come down, you may see the IPO market continue to pick up even more than it did in 2023. And there's a lot of big names waiting to come.

Public Klarna, Shein, Turo, Stripe, Databricks, Reddit, all all of these companies are really big companies already in the private market and they're just writing, waiting for the right time. And a lot of them, you know, have, you know, are using AI or AI adjacent and this is a big theme. And if that continues to be popular, popular are those companies that are, you know, involved in the AI space may be more interested in coming public.

So I'll be looking out in 2024. You know are these is AI does AI continue to be a big investor trend and if so, are the companies waiting in the wings that have a significant AI presence, you know, wanting to come public? The other part about IPOs that it's good to think about is the lockups. So, you know, not only or if you're investing in this IPO for, you know, just trading it for the first day, that's one thing.

But if you're if you're going to hold these IPOs for several months, a lot of times they have what's called a lockup. So basically the the original investors, so the founders, the venture capitalists, a lot of times they sell a certain amount of shares into the IPO or the company itself should sell shares or there's a combination of the two.

And if they want to sell more these the current investors, they've got to wait. And so that's usually their shares are, quote, locked up for a certain time period, maybe three months, six months, a year. Well, and maybe that is some type of a vesting, you know, a a cliff that that it goes off of. It could be several dates.

So all that information will be in their SEC filings. So it's important to look at that and see because when that day comes, a lot of people will just rush to sell those shares. You know, it'll be, you know, whatever, January 31st. And they'll say, yeah, that's the lockup date. And then the stock will go down because everyone's selling.

So it's really important to be aware of all those dates. If you are in a recent IPO and to see how big some of these lockups are, if you know, five or 10% of the entire floor of the company is is is up for sale at a certain period, that's important thing to know from an investor standpoint. The other thing I'll be looking for in 2024 is, you know, what will the SCC be doing that?

Will there be increased scrutiny over disclosures in financials? And is that going to keep some of these companies private? The question is, do they need the money? You know, the private debt market has gotten much bigger and much more complex in the last decade or two. And so these companies are able to raise money in different ways than just public markets.

So, you know, a lot of companies may stay private. It'll be interesting to see if that is a trend. You know, companies aren't coming public like they did other than 2021 as they did, you know, a decade or two ago. And in conclusion, I just want to sum up, you know, it's, you know, investing IPOs can very risky because you're really dealing with an unknown quantity.

You want the company to report several quarters of financials as a public company to get a track record going. And so you can have a lot of volatility. So you need to be really careful when you're trading these IPOs in particular, I think about this kind of shiny new thing syndrome, right? Like whenever something brand new comes out and everybody wants it and they're willing to line up for hours to get it in the store and they're willing to pay five times what the retail price is, sometimes IPOs can be that way, like everyone wants to jump into that brand new thing.

And you really have to be aware that is it is an investment and you really should be basing this based on the company's business model and its financials are great talking with everyone. Have a great day. Bye. IPOs can be risky and speculative investments and may not be appropriate for every investor. Learn more at www.sec.gov/files/IPO/investorbulletin.pdf.

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