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Morgan Stanley: If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates significantly, the further closing of arbitrage trades could pose risks to the US stock market.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates substantially this month, the US stock market could face the risk of further unwinding of yen carry trades. Wilson, one of Wall Street's largest stock market bears until May of this year, pointed out that a larger initial rate cut could support the yen. This would prompt yen traders to withdraw from US assets after domestic interest rates rise, leading to a repeat of the pattern that caused global markets to plunge last month. "The unwinding of yen carry trades may still be a hidden risk factor," Wilson wrote in a report. "Short-term US interest rates...
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