This chart leaves no room for doubt.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ : Every bull/bear cycle since 1949
Bull markets:
→ Avg. duration: 5.3 years
→ Avg. gain: +254%
→ Longest: 12.3 years (+841%)
Bear markets:
→ Avg. duration: 1.0 year
→ Avg. loss: −31%
→ Worst: 1.4 years (−55%)
The asymmetry is staggering.
You spend years grinding gains stair-by-stair…
Then the elevator drops, erasing months of progress.
But here’s the truth this chart reveals:
The blue lin...
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ : Every bull/bear cycle since 1949
Bull markets:
→ Avg. duration: 5.3 years
→ Avg. gain: +254%
→ Longest: 12.3 years (+841%)
Bear markets:
→ Avg. duration: 1.0 year
→ Avg. loss: −31%
→ Worst: 1.4 years (−55%)
The asymmetry is staggering.
You spend years grinding gains stair-by-stair…
Then the elevator drops, erasing months of progress.
But here’s the truth this chart reveals:
The blue lin...
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$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ been stuck below its ATH for 100 days now—longest stretch since 2023. But check this: it’s only -10% off the peak, the 6th time this script played out since 1985.
History says 📜:
– 1 month later: 80% chance Nasdaq is flat/up, avg +1.1%
– 2 months later: 80% positive, avg +2.3%
– 12 months later: 100% higher, avg +17.0%
Tech stocks bouta moon? Or is this the calm before the storm?
Now, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ flashback 🎬:
Every crash since 2020 foll...
History says 📜:
– 1 month later: 80% chance Nasdaq is flat/up, avg +1.1%
– 2 months later: 80% positive, avg +2.3%
– 12 months later: 100% higher, avg +17.0%
Tech stocks bouta moon? Or is this the calm before the storm?
Now, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ flashback 🎬:
Every crash since 2020 foll...
SPX Action:
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ been acting weird lately – every Thursday for months straight, it’s been a red day. If this trend keeps up, we might see a drop to 6500-6520 by Friday (current support zone). To flip bullish this week, SPX needs to reclaim 6700 ASAP. But tread carefully – every rally the past 2 months got sold off hard. 🚨
Fed Drama Alert:
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting was a doozy:
– No rate cuts (again) – second meeting in a row. 🛑
– They’re now projecting 1 cut...
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ been acting weird lately – every Thursday for months straight, it’s been a red day. If this trend keeps up, we might see a drop to 6500-6520 by Friday (current support zone). To flip bullish this week, SPX needs to reclaim 6700 ASAP. But tread carefully – every rally the past 2 months got sold off hard. 🚨
Fed Drama Alert:
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting was a doozy:
– No rate cuts (again) – second meeting in a row. 🛑
– They’re now projecting 1 cut...
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let’s cut through the noise on tomorrow’s CPI report and what it means for SPY/QQQ. No fluff, just the real talk from a guy who’s been burned by gas prices and SYSCO line-item surcharges 🍅💸.
CPI Numbers to Watch
– Headline CPI (MoM): Expected 0.3% (YoY: 2.4%)
– Core CPI (MoM): Expected 0.2% (YoY: 2.5%) – This strips out food/energy, so oil spikes won’t skew it.
Why Oil Matters (Even If Core CPI Ignores It)
Oil’s up 20%+ this month, and while it hasn’t fully hit consumer w...
CPI Numbers to Watch
– Headline CPI (MoM): Expected 0.3% (YoY: 2.4%)
– Core CPI (MoM): Expected 0.2% (YoY: 2.5%) – This strips out food/energy, so oil spikes won’t skew it.
Why Oil Matters (Even If Core CPI Ignores It)
Oil’s up 20%+ this month, and while it hasn’t fully hit consumer w...
FiveHundredCents
liked and voted
👋 Let's break down what went down in the market today based on last night's State of the Union drama 🎭.
So, the White House dropped a bombshell 💣: They struck a "Taxpayer Protection Pledge" with big shots like $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ , $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ , $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ , $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ , and OpenAI. Here's the tea ☕: These AI data center kings are guzzling grid power like there's no tomorrow, sending household electricity bills through the roof 📈. Now, the gov's makin...
So, the White House dropped a bombshell 💣: They struck a "Taxpayer Protection Pledge" with big shots like $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ , $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ , $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ , $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ , and OpenAI. Here's the tea ☕: These AI data center kings are guzzling grid power like there's no tomorrow, sending household electricity bills through the roof 📈. Now, the gov's makin...
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FiveHundredCents
liked and voted
📉 S&P 500 ( $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ ) Stalling Hard
Since Oct 29: +0.2% total (basically flat) despite all the "bull market forever" talk.
Micro-rallies keep getting sold: Every tiny bounce gets smacked down. Momentum fading fast.
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ (fear gauge): Making higher lows = complacency cracking.
– Playbook: Might squeeze higher briefly, but "the cliff is near." Trader I follow is loading up on March 20 puts starting Feb 18.
💡 Market Top Signal Flashing
– AAII Sen...
Since Oct 29: +0.2% total (basically flat) despite all the "bull market forever" talk.
Micro-rallies keep getting sold: Every tiny bounce gets smacked down. Momentum fading fast.
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ (fear gauge): Making higher lows = complacency cracking.
– Playbook: Might squeeze higher briefly, but "the cliff is near." Trader I follow is loading up on March 20 puts starting Feb 18.
💡 Market Top Signal Flashing
– AAII Sen...
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1. S&P 500 & Fed-Driven Volatility $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
– Historical Context: Since 1930, new Fed chairs have triggered average S&P 500 retracements of 5% (1 month), 12% (3 months), and 16% (6 months) post-nomination. Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tone has already spooked markets, with only the first act of this drama unfolding.
– Midterm Election Risk: If Warsh takes office in May and the S&P 500 retraces 16% by November’s midterms, Trump’s reelection ca...
– Historical Context: Since 1930, new Fed chairs have triggered average S&P 500 retracements of 5% (1 month), 12% (3 months), and 16% (6 months) post-nomination. Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tone has already spooked markets, with only the first act of this drama unfolding.
– Midterm Election Risk: If Warsh takes office in May and the S&P 500 retraces 16% by November’s midterms, Trump’s reelection ca...
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FiveHundredCents
liked
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ down another 3.5% yesterday, yet the real story is in the short activity that's been building for weeks.
While price struggled near the $210-$220 zone, the Daily Short Volume (red bars) has been climbing steadily. That's a classic sign of increasing selling pressure from bears betting on a breakdown.
Now watch the Short Interest %. It's also creeping up, meaning these bearish bets are being held, not ju...
While price struggled near the $210-$220 zone, the Daily Short Volume (red bars) has been climbing steadily. That's a classic sign of increasing selling pressure from bears betting on a breakdown.
Now watch the Short Interest %. It's also creeping up, meaning these bearish bets are being held, not ju...
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FiveHundredCents
liked and voted
Key Index Moves
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ S&P 500: -0.13% to 6,969.01 (choppy, no clear direction)
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ Dow: +0.11% to 49,071.56 (defensive plays offset tech losses)
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ Nasdaq: -0.72% to 23,685.12 (AI leaders drag, QQQ under pressure)
Tech Sector Bloodbath
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ : -10% (worst day since 2020, $281B wiped out—2nd-largest in U.S. history).
$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ ...
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ S&P 500: -0.13% to 6,969.01 (choppy, no clear direction)
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ Dow: +0.11% to 49,071.56 (defensive plays offset tech losses)
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ Nasdaq: -0.72% to 23,685.12 (AI leaders drag, QQQ under pressure)
Tech Sector Bloodbath
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ : -10% (worst day since 2020, $281B wiped out—2nd-largest in U.S. history).
$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ ...
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📉 Debt Refinancing Pressure Hits Markets
~26% of U.S. federal debt matures in the next 12 months (highest since 2020’s 29% peak).
With rates at 3.75% (vs. 0% in 2020), refinancing ~$10T debt at higher costs looms.
Treasury’s shift to short-term bonds adds urgency—who absorbs this supply?
🌍 Greenland Fallout: Confidence Crisis Meets Bond Rout
NATO/media backlash over Greenland spooked markets, pushing yields higher.
Treasuries now seen as a bargaining chip vs. U.S., not a safe ...
~26% of U.S. federal debt matures in the next 12 months (highest since 2020’s 29% peak).
With rates at 3.75% (vs. 0% in 2020), refinancing ~$10T debt at higher costs looms.
Treasury’s shift to short-term bonds adds urgency—who absorbs this supply?
🌍 Greenland Fallout: Confidence Crisis Meets Bond Rout
NATO/media backlash over Greenland spooked markets, pushing yields higher.
Treasuries now seen as a bargaining chip vs. U.S., not a safe ...
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