• 75366749 : ceasefire? trump said 12 hours ago hes going to heavily bomb

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• We go North OP 104916373 : Q2 will be operational results for May, Jun, Jul. Today is 11 Jun 2026. We are already halfway there.
  By the end of Jul, which is 5 full months into the war, you should expect to see some repricing, if it happens at all.
  If you look at OXY, it fell from ~$47-50 to ~$38 because CEO Vicky sold OxyChem for a very cheap price of $9.7B to Buffett. It was an all-cash deal which incurred a huge tax bill of $1.7B(according to Gemini). Vicky could have negotiated a deal consisting of a partial exchange of the preferred shares and cash, but she didn't. Many shareholders were left wondering: "Yes. We know Buffett likes OXY but he likes it precisely because he is getting sweetheart deals from Vicky. He is in reality, ripping off the rest of Occidental's shareholders. He is getting OxyChem very cheap and his preferred shares are getting 8% dividends. What's in FOR US, the normal shareholders?"
  And after the OxyChem deal, OXY still had the jail shackles on. 8% dividend is like a LOANSHARK loan, for lack of a better word. So OXY fell due to negative sentiments from ~$47-50 to $38. I estimate its rightful price should be $47-50. Now it is $57-58 due to the war. The $7-8 is actually a temporary war premium. When the war is over (which is very far off due to the stalemate), you should expect oil to plunge to $75 and OXY to plunge 8-12%(~$50). Then oil will creep back up to ~$90 bcos every nation on the face of this earth(except China) will be buying to replenish their SPRs. I expect OXY to creep back up to $57-58.
  So what happens if the ceasefire continues past 2026? OXY is now $57-58(with the war premium) but the mkt sees clearly that OXY's jail shackles will come off? Answer: OXY will reprice upwards, on top of the war premium. I suspect a 8-10% repricing in the coming mths i.e. ~$62-63. When that happens, OXY will no longer bounce up and down about $56-57 but bounce up & down about $62-63 instead. Since it will bounce about $62-63, a $65 target seems achievable.
  Target = $65.
  What this $65 figure consists of is:
  $50(OXY's value before the war) +
  $7-8(war premium which will disappear after the war) +
  $7-8(repricing bcos OXY's shackles are seen to be coming off + sentiment fluctuations).

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• We go North OP 75366749 : I expect US to bomb heavily. Yes.
  Maybe to reseal Iran's underground missile storage sites.
  Then Trump will go back to being the irresponsible Trump that we know of.
  He will let the Arabs figure a way out for him. But there is no way out. Hence, the ceasefire will shoot past 2026.

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• We go North OP 75366749 : Forget about "Capturing Kharg Island. If capturing is of any use, US would have already captured it."
  One thing about Trump is that he is readable.
  When he starts getting coy, BEWARE. A big move will come.
  When he is spewing profanities and threats, just take it easy. This is just dog barking.

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• 75719531 : I'll sell as soon as I break even—I bought at 60, and it's been absolutely torturous

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