$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ 為替から見る債券🤔
FXをしていていますがドル円 を見て月末要因で下落もすぐに戻してまだドル高は変わらずです。
しかしファンダメンタルズ的にドル高の余地は徐々になくなってきてると思います。
これは利下げ観測後退によるドル高はだいぶ織り込んで来てます。
ここからさらに大きくドル高で債券金利が上がるにはそれこそ追加利上げって事を考えます。
しかしFRBの次の動きは「利下げ」 ですよね！？5月のドルインデックスは久しぶりの陰線が出ました！
為替と金利の関係性が大きいのでこの事からこの辺りが長期債の底打ちと考えたい🤔
年初からのインフレ率上振れも落ち着いてきたと思います！
これは原油価格の上昇が大きかった 😓
ただ、原油の月足も陰線で確定しており、6月発表の米CPIに下落圧力として働く ！？
(もちろん原油だけでは決まらないけど)
6/2(日)にOPEC会合この結果に注目→減産をどこまで継続するのかで予想出来ます。
6月は米雇用統計→米CPI→FOMCが本当に大事で...
FXをしていていますがドル円 を見て月末要因で下落もすぐに戻してまだドル高は変わらずです。
しかしファンダメンタルズ的にドル高の余地は徐々になくなってきてると思います。
これは利下げ観測後退によるドル高はだいぶ織り込んで来てます。
ここからさらに大きくドル高で債券金利が上がるにはそれこそ追加利上げって事を考えます。
しかしFRBの次の動きは「利下げ」 ですよね！？5月のドルインデックスは久しぶりの陰線が出ました！
為替と金利の関係性が大きいのでこの事からこの辺りが長期債の底打ちと考えたい🤔
年初からのインフレ率上振れも落ち着いてきたと思います！
これは原油価格の上昇が大きかった 😓
ただ、原油の月足も陰線で確定しており、6月発表の米CPIに下落圧力として働く ！？
(もちろん原油だけでは決まらないけど)
6/2(日)にOPEC会合この結果に注目→減産をどこまで継続するのかで予想出来ます。
6月は米雇用統計→米CPI→FOMCが本当に大事で...
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ 2-year bonds, 5-year bonds are unpopular, consumer confidence indices are rising, real estate prices are soaring, etc. 😓
As a way of thinking, are short-term government bonds unpopular due to inflow into stocks, cash, gold, etc. due to concerns that interest rate cuts are close? I want it to flow into long-term bonds too! Also, the consumer confidence index was divided by 100 last month, but now it's 102! But the chart is slowly falling! As for real estate, new construction is unsellable due to soaring mortgage interest rates from policy interest rates, and properties soar due to exhaustion of used property inventory, etc.! There's nothing to be afraid of unequivocally, and you should think that it will still take a little longer until interest rate cuts are shown 🤔
10-year bonds and 30-year bonds are yielding sequentially, but we are still digging deep into the opposite yield curve from short-term bonds, and I'd like to wait and see trends in long-term bonds until 6/7 👀
There are various things such as wars, high logistics costs, bank bankruptcy from commercial real estate, etc., but all TLTTMF holders invest with risks. Let's do our best to maintain our mental health 💪
As a way of thinking, are short-term government bonds unpopular due to inflow into stocks, cash, gold, etc. due to concerns that interest rate cuts are close? I want it to flow into long-term bonds too! Also, the consumer confidence index was divided by 100 last month, but now it's 102! But the chart is slowly falling! As for real estate, new construction is unsellable due to soaring mortgage interest rates from policy interest rates, and properties soar due to exhaustion of used property inventory, etc.! There's nothing to be afraid of unequivocally, and you should think that it will still take a little longer until interest rate cuts are shown 🤔
10-year bonds and 30-year bonds are yielding sequentially, but we are still digging deep into the opposite yield curve from short-term bonds, and I'd like to wait and see trends in long-term bonds until 6/7 👀
There are various things such as wars, high logistics costs, bank bankruptcy from commercial real estate, etc., but all TLTTMF holders invest with risks. Let's do our best to maintain our mental health 💪
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ Let's take a look at it from a technical point of view!
Interest rates on 2-year bonds have switched to an upward break and are aiming for 5%, and interest rates on 10-year bonds somehow became a horizontal and horizontal BOX chart without breaking from the decline chart, and the reverse yield curve is being dug deep. TOHOHO 😓
Meanwhile, TLT is still on the decline chart, and TMF is in an even tougher situation on the horizontal and horizontal charts without being able to break. There's just a slight sense of bottoming out!
Fukahori, who is currently on the reverse yield curve, indicates that interest rate increases on 2-year bonds are directly linked to FF interest rates, so there is a strong expectation that interest rate cuts will be delayed. However, there are not a few cases where interest rates on 10-year bonds are still rising moderately, and it can be predicted that the number of long-term bond holders will eventually increase in anticipation of interest losses!?
I think that means please wait for a while longer for the results. If you are a TLTTMF holder, don't be impatient and take a look at the American indicators slowly 🥰
※Please be careful if you are new or have a short term!
Interest rates on 2-year bonds have switched to an upward break and are aiming for 5%, and interest rates on 10-year bonds somehow became a horizontal and horizontal BOX chart without breaking from the decline chart, and the reverse yield curve is being dug deep. TOHOHO 😓
Meanwhile, TLT is still on the decline chart, and TMF is in an even tougher situation on the horizontal and horizontal charts without being able to break. There's just a slight sense of bottoming out!
Fukahori, who is currently on the reverse yield curve, indicates that interest rate increases on 2-year bonds are directly linked to FF interest rates, so there is a strong expectation that interest rate cuts will be delayed. However, there are not a few cases where interest rates on 10-year bonds are still rising moderately, and it can be predicted that the number of long-term bond holders will eventually increase in anticipation of interest losses!?
I think that means please wait for a while longer for the results. If you are a TLTTMF holder, don't be impatient and take a look at the American indicators slowly 🥰
※Please be careful if you are new or have a short term!
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ Interest rate cuts are in the air, and good news is coming out, and it's becoming a comfortable environment for bond investors!
Even if you look at dollars and yen, dollars were sold in large quantities from CPI, but they are returning, and the dollar is still strong due to the difference in 10-year bonds between Japan and the US
If you look deep into the rise in American stock prices and the reverse yield curve, it seems that bond investors will be required to persevere for 1 or 2 more months 🤔
While saying that, I'm looking forward to the end of May, but I'm watching even though I want the mentality to gather now 😅
Even if you look at dollars and yen, dollars were sold in large quantities from CPI, but they are returning, and the dollar is still strong due to the difference in 10-year bonds between Japan and the US
If you look deep into the rise in American stock prices and the reverse yield curve, it seems that bond investors will be required to persevere for 1 or 2 more months 🤔
While saying that, I'm looking forward to the end of May, but I'm watching even though I want the mentality to gather now 😅
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There are dividends in June! Just wait slowly 
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ The CPI was successfully cleared, and we can see the Fed cutting interest rates 3 times this year! Due to the turning point, there are still 2 market predictions, but they are changing day by day.
If you look at the opposite even further, I think the unemployment rate and the real PCE 🤔
May the wind blow to bond holders 😁
If you look at the opposite even further, I think the unemployment rate and the real PCE 🤔
May the wind blow to bond holders 😁
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ There are a lot of concerns about stagflation right now! I don't think past stagflation will become full-scale stagflation unless it is an economy where crude oil prices soar and demand for energy rises 🤔
It's true that crude oil has soared slightly, but now it's a downward chart when it comes to dividing $80. OPEC is also making adjustments to plans to cut production 😅
The American economy is certainly strong, and I think there are many reports that the financial results of each company are doing well, but the current indicators don't show the economy to the extent that energy soars!
Since no other world or strong economy can be confirmed, I think the probability of stagflation is quite low. The only scariest thing is war 😱
Bond investors will continue to keep a close eye on the strong economy and crude oil movements since the war, but first I would like to expect American interest rate cuts from the CPI inflation rate 😊
It's true that crude oil has soared slightly, but now it's a downward chart when it comes to dividing $80. OPEC is also making adjustments to plans to cut production 😅
The American economy is certainly strong, and I think there are many reports that the financial results of each company are doing well, but the current indicators don't show the economy to the extent that energy soars!
Since no other world or strong economy can be confirmed, I think the probability of stagflation is quite low. The only scariest thing is war 😱
Bond investors will continue to keep a close eye on the strong economy and crude oil movements since the war, but first I would like to expect American interest rate cuts from the CPI inflation rate 😊
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ Currently, the Fed expects to cut interest rates 2 or 3 times a year if the FY24 FF interest rate is around 4.6! I'm predicting roughly 3 more times in '25 🎶
So was it possible to cut interest rates due to the speculation of the Fed in the past? Continuing for a long period of time, raising again, suddenly lowering, etc., this shows that financial tightening, which has been effective due to delays, is difficult to control.
However, we know that bond holders have generally moved in this way since the past. The problem is mental! I think the biggest enemy of investing is unsettling news, statements, and periods of anxiety (time).
Ahhh, I wish I had done this back then! How many more times can we enjoy this kind of historical timing without saying Talareba!? Let's look forward to investing like that 🥰
So was it possible to cut interest rates due to the speculation of the Fed in the past? Continuing for a long period of time, raising again, suddenly lowering, etc., this shows that financial tightening, which has been effective due to delays, is difficult to control.
However, we know that bond holders have generally moved in this way since the past. The problem is mental! I think the biggest enemy of investing is unsettling news, statements, and periods of anxiety (time).
Ahhh, I wish I had done this back then! How many more times can we enjoy this kind of historical timing without saying Talareba!? Let's look forward to investing like that 🥰
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ I'm looking at currency strengths and weaknesses in Forex though!
Countries have sold bonds since COVID-19, and debts have increased hugely! And now gold is exploding in all currencies!
There is also demand for money, and debt is not the only factor, but clearly currency value has fallen 😓
Not a small part of this is also the cause of inflation! The opposite of debt when printing bonds and scattering them 😖
Should I buy TLT, TMF+ gold ETFs too 🤔
Countries have sold bonds since COVID-19, and debts have increased hugely! And now gold is exploding in all currencies!
There is also demand for money, and debt is not the only factor, but clearly currency value has fallen 😓
Not a small part of this is also the cause of inflation! The opposite of debt when printing bonds and scattering them 😖
Should I buy TLT, TMF+ gold ETFs too 🤔
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ TLT TMF is still a technical indication of a decline, so we can't let our guard down. But I think Fanda is moving in a good direction 😊
We are now cutting interest rates twice by the end of the year, and I think interest rates will slowly fall 🤔
Let's wait and see for a while without being impatient 😊
We are now cutting interest rates twice by the end of the year, and I think interest rates will slowly fall 🤔
Let's wait and see for a while without being impatient 😊
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ Congratulations, it's still early, but this scene has been repeated over and over again since last year! However, I feel that the current state of the American economy is deteriorating.
■Employment worsens, domestic demand declines!
After that, if we observe a decline in the inflation rate, we will cut interest rates! However, prices are still high and there are wars, and concerns about stagflation remain 😓
Bond investors want the reverse yield curve to be resolved and the Therm rule to be invoked as soon as possible 😋
Holders who have persevered will buy more and hold on tight! If you are new, I think it's better to wait a little longer before purchasing 😊
I'm really glad it was a good Golden Week 🥰
■Employment worsens, domestic demand declines!
After that, if we observe a decline in the inflation rate, we will cut interest rates! However, prices are still high and there are wars, and concerns about stagflation remain 😓
Bond investors want the reverse yield curve to be resolved and the Therm rule to be invoked as soon as possible 😋
Holders who have persevered will buy more and hold on tight! If you are new, I think it's better to wait a little longer before purchasing 😊
I'm really glad it was a good Golden Week 🥰
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