Technically, it's still a downtrend chart!
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ TLT TMF is still a technical indication of a decline, so we can't let our guard down. But I think Fanda is moving in a good direction 😊
We are now cutting interest rates twice by the end of the year, and I think interest rates will slowly fall 🤔
Let's wait and see for a while without being impatient 😊
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今は米国債一本です！
とりあえず1億目指してます😊
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akipi_ : Predictions are difficult, aren't they
Personally
・Total collapse of US stocks due to poor financial results for the next quarter → inflow of funds into receivables
・Commercial real estate crisis of small to medium banks occurred → spread to other sectors and recession → flow of funds into receivables
I'm assuming that at that place.
Even if I look at yesterday's consumer credit balance data for 3 months, I feel like individuals are no longer able to get into debt or banks can't lend money
投資家 t9mOP akipi_: I want it to flow in
There's also news that bond short positions have also been resolved
I hope this trend continues!
akipi_ : Yes
After that, I'm praying that Israel and Hamas won't do anything superfluous
シャケちゃ : I think it is possible to have a scenario where the United States as a whole falls for the April-6 fiscal year, interest rates will be cut in 6 months, and a recoil increase for the July-9 fiscal year.
The CPI for the 15th is very important.
投資家 t9mOP シャケちゃ: I think next week's CPI will be bad
If interest rates were cut in June, it would be really hot!
Unexpected interest rate cuts won't stop
シャケちゃ 投資家 t9mOP: When I read FOMC minutes, etc., they talk about immigration and credit risk.
I feel that Mr. Powell's press conference doesn't have much meaning because there are a lot of guided interrogative questions from the press side.
I'm seriously aware that the June interest rate cut is an aggressive opinion, but I don't think there's any credit risk if we don't do it.
投資家 t9mOP シャケちゃ: Certainly! There's nothing I can't think of
Let's assume that it will come early or be late
シャケちゃ 投資家 t9mOP: I want to fight back so that the risk is reduced no matter how I fall.
Let's take a careful look at the data etc. without being impatient.
新div : The number of applicants for unemployment claims is increasing. Employment and unemployment need to be watched closely. What will happen to expectations of interest rate cuts going forward?
投資家 t9mOP 新div: CPI is also in the spotlight
Yesterday, the 30-year bond passed successfully
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