Overcoming fearful self
As the economy is struggling and the stock market is rising, I have recently been quite fearful. If I don't buy it, I'm afraid to go short. Buy it, I'm afraid to take over. Cash has been released on short-term treasury bonds for a long time. Interest rates have now begun to decline, and my long-term target is not a 5% profit, so I must increase some higher-yield investments.
Currently, out of the seven major technologies, $Tesla(TSLA.US$ We still have to wait to choose the direction; you can't gamble at this time. $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ It is only possible to increase small positions gradually; the risk of heavy positions is too high. I can't buy anything else. It's really too expensive, and it's all foam even when it rises.
I thought about it carefully and replanned it a bit:
1. I'm currently in a heavy position $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ 。 If the economy actually collapses, as long as other countries are worse than the US, then the US can release a lot of water and take the opportunity to explore other countries' high-quality assets in order to resolve its own debt crisis. Then the TLT will skyrocket.
2. If the economy has a soft landing, or if the recession is slight, then the stock market will never plummet; a decline is also an opportunity for bottoming out. Currently, among all sectors in the stock market, the sector that can maintain growth and has a reasonable current valuation is health care. $The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund(XLV.US$ , I'm already in a heavy position. Since 2008, although the medical sector is not as good as technology, its share in the total value of the US stock market has also risen. However, the share of essential goods, utilities, etc. in the total market value is declining. That's why I chose medical treatment.
3. If inflation recurs, I'm not ready for this. But there is currently no sign in sight. The oil crisis will not recur, but there is a possibility of a commodity crisis (for example, a major manufacturing country cuts the supply of goods to the US). If you see similar signs, deal with them then. There is still time to think about countermeasures. But cutting out the tlt is for sure.
4. America was the first to collapse. If stocks, bonds, and real estate exchange are killing four times, then there's really nothing you can do about it. But currently, which country is superior to the US and is better able to withstand the global economy or debt crisis? I can't think of one yet.
As long as 3 and 4 don't show up, what am I currently afraid of? So, what's there to be afraid of?
Thinking about it carefully, my mentality improved a lot.
If S&P actually hits a record high in December, I would consider shorting S&P. If Japan actually raises interest rates, I would also consider shorting S&P.
Finally, let me make a fuss, $Costco(COST.US$ It's a very good defensive stock. Unfortunately, even though I made the right judgment at the time, I had a lot of hits on this channel a few months ago, but I don't think it's rising slowly; it has long since run away. If I keep getting it until now, I'll have made quite a bit of money. Thinking back to my rowdy behavior, it was really a race between turtles and rabbits![]()
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But it doesn't matter anymore. With the current valuation, it's true that I can't buy it anymore, so let's wait for the next chance. Reflect on it and encourage everyone.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为富图系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。㊗️大家越来越🐮
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Silverbat : admirable wisdom and patience
Silverbat : COST is a bit high
Aruil : Thanks for sharing!
小超人爸爸 : Thanks for sharing, keep following your posts,
9453哈門 : Thanks for sharing
mubbiiee : It's the kind of feeling I always have when I'm in the air. Every day it rises so much, and Fomo's mood is very uncomfortable. I always think long pain is not as good as short pain, but after all, next year is an election year, so it is likely that the release of pigeons will prolong inflation.
LiJasmin : Thank you for sharing
高贵的阿德莱德OP mubbiiee: It's not just about going short; the main thing is that I know it can go up, but I think I can find a better target. As a result, I didn't make any money
ben123 : I wonder if 20-year treasury bonds can still enter the market now?
高贵的阿德莱德OP ben123: It's really hard for you to do this for me, and I can't predict the future
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