I'm planning to think carefully about Bitcoin over the weekend
Possibility 1: If today's sharp decline was due to the risk of a war in the Middle East and a rational sell-off caused by safe-haven demand, then I probably wouldn't have stopped losing at 38. I personally believe that war does not pose a systemic risk to Bitcoin; on the contrary, Bitcoin has safe-haven properties. At the end of February 2022, Russia and Ukraine started, and Bitcoin did not fall. Instead, interest rates were raised later, and liquidity tightened, which led to a sharp decline.
Evidence supporting this view: TLT bucked the trend. However, gold and crude oil have not risen, so this reason is not sufficient for the time being. TLT is probably just an overrun rebound; one-day data is not enough to prove that it is a safe-haven purchase. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$
Possibility 2: Expectations of interest rate cuts have fallen short. The strengthening of the US dollar supports this view, but it is also a bit far-fetched. After all, TLT is still rising![]()
Also, two days have passed since the CPI; this reflection arc is probably a bit too long. If this is the reason, a stop-loss must be executed. The tightening of liquidity and the strengthening of the USD will definitely suppress the price of Bitcoin.
Possibility 3: Irrational panic, including irrational selling due to the risk of war. After all, apart from Apple bucking the trend and rising slightly today, TLT overfell and rebounded. The entire market basically fell across the board, and the panic index VIX also soared. If this is the reason, there is no need to stop losses in the case of an irrational decline; on the contrary, it is a good time to take advantage of the position.
I'll keep watching. Might try to buy it next week $Apple(AAPL.US$
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为富图系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。㊗️大家越来越🐮
1119Followers
26Following
7414Visitors
Follow
高贵的阿德莱德OP : If you think about it carefully, the strengthening of the USD is not necessarily due to interest rate cuts falling short; the war in the Middle East will also lead to the strengthening of the US dollar. After all, in the US dollar index, the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar have very little weight; they are mainly European currencies. Whether it is the start of the war between Iran and Israel or the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it will hurt Europe very much, in contrast to the strengthening of the US dollar. Therefore, the reason for Bitcoin's sharp decline requires further data confirmation. I'll stay on the sidelines for now until Monday's close.
蛤蛤 : Yesterday's fall may be a sign of bulls turning bears
高贵的阿德莱德OP 蛤蛤: A bear turn won't happen; the bull market won't be that short. However, there may be a wave of pullbacks, washing out some high-ranking chips
wangcaifan : Thanks for sharing, very useful for me as a new shareholder
