CPI data
We had the latest CPI numbers. They came in slightly hotter than expected. But the market seems muted.
The hotter CPI may complicate things a little in Fed’s inflation fight. But I think it’s unlikely to change the probability of Fed pausing their rate hike campaign for the upcoming FOMC meeting, which is taking place next week. If anything, they will probably raise in Nov.
Anyway, whether the Fed pause or raise interest rate, volatility will likely be here to stay as the macro environment is still unstable (though improving).
The hotter CPI may complicate things a little in Fed’s inflation fight. But I think it’s unlikely to change the probability of Fed pausing their rate hike campaign for the upcoming FOMC meeting, which is taking place next week. If anything, they will probably raise in Nov.
Anyway, whether the Fed pause or raise interest rate, volatility will likely be here to stay as the macro environment is still unstable (though improving).
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katrinadsantos : The one that is not very good
newbeeeee katrinadsantos: Does being slack mean falling?
razo2 : they will raise rates next week. they won't pause. otherwise oil will fly so high it will send Biden and Jerome to the Wendy's dumpster fire. oil is going to spike up to the moon with no support from OPEC+ and SPR. the price to pay for backstabbing the middle eastern people.
PolyQ : i said inflation will be back last week. I think Fed will have to raise later if they pause this month.
PolyQ razo2: Saudi and Russia and Iran are pushing the oil price but I think Fed will pause this month and keep in next month when the numbers become unacceptable.
razo2 PolyQ: the only reason for the pause in July was due to the treasury issuing T bills. technically speaking the only reason why they don't want to increase the rates is due to the banks. but oil producing countries are not buying this story of no recession and soft landing.
they rather take a safer step to cut production and not sell oil supply at near zero like 2015/2016. that is what the US is aiming for. this in turn will force the oil prices to go up. but the Saudi knows oil prices are highly shorted now, so to push real value they just need to to supply enough for Asia and cut the rest. as I said before the cut of oil hasn't end yet. there is more to come.
skoh : how to stop trade
lllsbdjnx skoh: Are you talking about selling tickets or closing positions
skoh : yes
Hary PolyQ: The rise in crude oil has suppressed the general market; it seems that everything is not going well
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