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Are global container Transportation rates skyrocketing about to peak? Institutions warn that demand in the second half of the year may drag down prices.
① Global container transportation rates soared recently due to the 90-day window for tariff concessions between China and the United States, but there are signs that this trend may be peaking; ② The maritime consulting firm Drewry pointed out that the global container Index rose by 41% week-on-week, while rates on major routes from Asia to the United States obviously increased by as much as 117%; ③ Drewry predicts that a decline in demand in the second half of 2025 will lead to a reduction in freight rates, and the future remains uncertain.
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The shipping peak season has arrived early! It is expected that in June there will be a "small peak" in port cargo volume, and the tight space for shipments to the US may continue at least until mid-July.
① According to reports from journalists, Ningbo Zhoushan Port is expected to resume normal Operation on the US routes around mid-June; all US-bound flights from Shanghai Port have fully resumed as of now. ② Maersk is planning to adjust the capacity that was reduced due to tariff impacts back to the US routes. It is anticipated that the market for US routes will remain tight at least until mid-July.
How do rising shipping rates and export competition affect the external demand Sector?
The phenomenon of "grabbing exports" has caused a surge in shipping volume and prices on the US route. Institutions point out that although the shipping sector and exports to Europe may benefit in the short term, companies need to be cautious of the erosion of profits due to high freight rates.
The shipping Sector surged again: leading stocks doubled in four days. How long will the transportation window period last?
Some Institutions indicated that the recent China-US negotiations on tariff reductions exceeded expectations, and with certain tariffs being postponed for 90 days, it is expected to create a window for urgent shipments.
Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | US shipping is entering a super peak season, Goldman Sachs predicts that China's exports will explode in the next 90 days (includes concept stocks).
There is a "cabin rush" in the US shipping industry, and freight rates may continue to rise in the short term.