In recent years, due to the rapid development of infrastructure and manufacturing, China has been known as the "infrastructure maniac" with a series of large-scale infrastructure and super projects. In the A-share market, the infrastructure sector also ignored the "four consecutive falls" of the market and rose sharply against the market.
On January 7, the real estate sector continued to pull up strongly. Xinhua Union, Taihe Group, Kaijia City, Songdu shares and other stocks closed up, Sunshine shares, Metro Holdings, China Communications Real Estate, Blu-ray Development, Investment Shekou, Nanguo Real Estate, Binjiang Group, Yangguang City shares rose.
Not only the real estate sector, but also undervalued weekly stocks in the recent infrastructure industry chain, such as steel, cement building materials and oil, have risen well against the trend, among which the CSI Infrastructure Index has risen for two days in a row. After yesterday's limit, China Power Construction continued to soar by more than 4% today, with Donghua Science and Technology, Southeast Grid, China Rallway and so on leading the increase.
On the news, on the evening of January 6, China Power Construction issued an announcement that in order to properly solve the problem of inter-industry competition, the company plans to replace the assets held in the real estate sector with the assets related to the high-quality power grid auxiliary industry held by the company's controlling shareholder, China Electric Power Construction Group Co., Ltd., with the owners' rights and interests of the invested assets valued at 24.653 billion yuan and the total purchased assets totaling 24.719 billion yuan.
It is worth mentioning that Sany heavy Industries, which has been plummeting in 2021, also ushered in a wave of gains, with the latest closing price of 24.81 yuan per share, up 4.03%. In November 2021, Sany heavy Industries, which once fell to a low of 21.41 yuan per share this year, was jokingly called "Eryi heavy Industry" by investors, and now it has finally resumed the road of "running three".
In the Hong Kong stock market, the relevant sectors also rose for two consecutive trading days, of which the building materials sector rose significantly, up 8.44% in two days. In terms of individual stocks, China United Plastics and China National Building Material led the gains today, up 11.72 per cent and 5.38 per cent, respectively.
CITIC: there will be an eye-catching performance in the growth rate of infrastructure.
When the infrastructure sector rose sharply against the market, CITIC also launched an early research and released a report.
On the morning of January 7, CITIC studied Zhu Jianfang, Cheng Qiang and Maxigaova and released an article entitled "Fiscal Policy strength and Infrastructure growth Outlook", which pointed out that infrastructure investment is expected to achieve a high single-digit growth of about 7% in the first quarter. Infrastructure growth for the whole year will also have a bright performance of about 6.5 per cent, significantly higher than the same period last year and the whole year.
CITIC said that public revenue may exceed revenue by 700 billion in 2021, and the size and remaining amount of new special bonds issued in November and December 2021 total about 700 billion yuan. Public finance is overcharged and special bonds are issued later. It is judged that the overall financial funds carried forward to 2022 are about 1.4 trillion. In addition, the special debt quota has been issued 1.46 trillion in advance, and it cannot be ruled out that a second batch of special debt will be issued in advance, which will also lead to infrastructure growth in the first year. Combined with the amount of special bonds invested from November to December 2021, it is estimated that about one trillion yuan of special bonds will be spent in the first quarter.
Combined with the actual situation and data analysis, the growth rate of full-caliber capital expenditure for capital construction is 3-6 months ahead of the growth rate of capital construction. Infrastructure investment is expected to achieve a high single-digit growth of about 7 per cent in the first quarter, and infrastructure growth for the whole year will also have a bright performance of about 6.5 per cent, significantly higher than the same period last year and the whole year (excluding the base).
The trumpet of 2022 infrastructure is sounded in many places.
The sharp rise of the infrastructure sector is inseparable from the efforts of the policy side. At the beginning of the new year, many places sounded the bugle for the release and start of the project in 2022.
According to statistics, on January 4 and 5, major project start ceremonies were held in many provinces and cities, including Zhejiang, Shanghai, Hebei, Hainan, Sichuan and Henan, sounding the clarion call for the start of the project in 2022. From the perspective of investment projects, in addition to traditional infrastructure projects in the fields of infrastructure, people's livelihood and social undertakings, new infrastructure such as 5G network, industrial Internet, Internet of things, artificial intelligence and big data Center have become key investment areas for all parties.
Among them, the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a list of key construction projects in 2022 on January 4, arranging a total of 695 key construction projects with a total investment of 1.12 trillion yuan; a total of 358 projects in Zhejiang Province participated in centralized construction activities, with a total investment of 638.6 billion yuan; in addition, the total investment in Shanghai, Anhui and other places exceeded 300 billion yuan, and the total investment in Sichuan Province reached 232.2 billion yuan.
In addition, it is worth noting that on December 31, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Circular of the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission on accelerating the work of the Real Estate Investment Trust Fund (REITs) in the Infrastructure sector, emphasizing the need to strengthen support and guidance for the public offering of REITs in infrastructure, do a good job in REITs declaration services, implement the declaration conditions, speed up the progress of declaration, and strengthen the supervision of reinvestment of recovered funds. Promote the formation of a virtuous circle of funds. With the continuous landing of infrastructure public offering REITs, it will lead to a revaluation of construction companies.
Infrastructure is expected to become one of the investment logic of 2022 yuan.
Economic work in 2022 emphasizes "stability", the market still has high expectations for infrastructure investment this year, and the infrastructure sector is expected to usher in valuation repair.
Guotai Junan said that stable growth has become the main line is the consensus of the market, stable growth urgently needs the performance of traditional infrastructure, and the intensity of new infrastructure will also be maintained. Marginal changes have taken place in the three dimensions of capital sources, local will and project reserves that the market is worried about. Generally speaking, road transportation, water conservancy projects and energy infrastructure are the main directions for follow-up efforts.
Guohai Securities believes that the Central Economic work Conference proposed to improve the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and increase the intensity of tackling key problems of important products and core technologies, and industry demand may pick up after bottoming out in 2022. Capital construction starts ahead of schedule and superimposes the transmission cycle effect of special bonds. It is expected that demand will begin to pick up at the beginning of 2022, and the amount of infrastructure investment will be strongly guaranteed.
Infrastructure, green building and other related construction sub-fields are expected to benefit, with emphasis on China Construction, China National Construction, China Energy Construction, China Electric Construction; steel and cement industries mainly recommend Sinopec International, Sinosteel International, China Metallurgical; in terms of assembly construction, we can focus on Honglu steel structure, Seiko steel structure, Saint shares, Yuanda housing.