Aerospace Industry Revival Favors These Two Stocks, Analysts Highlight Upswing Potential
Aerospace Industry Revival Favors These Two Stocks, Analysts Highlight Upswing Potential
Stifel analyst Bert W. Subin initiated coverage on six companies in the commercial aerospace industry: Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) with a price target of $265, Transdigm Group Inc (NYSE:TDG) with a price target of $1,000, Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, Inc (NYSE:SPR) with a price target of $28, Hexcel Corp (NYSE:HXL) with a price target of $83, Heico Corp (NYSE:HEI) with a price target of $200 and AAR Corp (NYSE:AIR) with a price target of $80.
Stifel分析師伯特·蘇賓開始對商業航空航天業的六家公司進行報道：目標股價爲265美元的波音公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：BA）、目標股價爲1,000美元的Transdigm Group Inc（紐約證券交易所代碼：TDG）、目標股價爲28美元的Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, Inc（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPR），目標股價爲83美元，ico Corp（紐約證券交易所代碼：HEI）的目標股價爲200美元，AAR公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：AIR）的目標股價爲80美元。
Subin initiated coverage with a Buy rating on BA, HXL, HEI, and AIR and a Hold rating on TDG and SPR.
Subin開始了報道，BA、HXL、HEI和AIR的評級爲買入，TDG和SPR的評級爲持有。
Boeing and its suppliers see the most upside as aftermarket growth should start to slow.
隨着售後市場的增長應該開始放緩，波音及其供應商看到了最大的上行空間。
The analyst noted that new aircraft production now has a greater likelihood of improving than getting worse, making him favor OEMs and suppliers as profitability and FCF generation march back toward pre-pandemic levels.
這位分析師指出，隨着盈利能力和FCF生成量恢復到疫情前的水平，現在新飛機產量改善的可能性大於惡化的可能性，這使他偏愛原始設備製造商和供應商。
Conversely, companies with higher aftermarket exposure tend to perform best early in the cycle, as used aircraft run harder and demand for parts and services spikes.
相反，售後市場風險較高的公司往往在週期的早期表現最好，因爲二手飛機更難運行，對零件和服務的需求激增。
Given that the post-pandemic recovery is stabilizing, he noted commercial aero is becoming mid-cycle, and mid-cycle tends to be characterized by rising aircraft production, which benefits OEMs and suppliers while reducing pricing power for aftermarket. His top picks are Boeing and Hexcel.
他指出，鑑於疫情後的復甦正在穩定，商用航空已進入週期中期，週期中期往往以飛機產量增加爲特徵，這有利於原始設備製造商和供應商，同時降低了售後市場的定價能力。他的首選是波音和Hexcel。
Boeing is on track to see build rates improve, which, when paired with BGS strength and modest BDS improvement, should position the company to see material Free Cash Flow growth over the next 2+ years that will drive upside for shares as demand for new aircraft remains very high.
波音公司有望看到建機率的提高，再加上BGS的強勁表現和BDS的適度改善，這將使該公司能夠在未來2年多的時間內看到實質性的自由現金流增長，這將推動股票上漲，因爲對新飛機的需求仍然很高。
Hexcel is generally overweight to Airbus and widebodies but has diverse exposure across commercial aero (Airbus, Boeing, regional jets), business jets, and significant defense programs.
Hexcel通常對空客和寬體飛機持有增持，但在商用航空（空中客車、波音、支線飛機）、公務機和重要防務計劃方面的曝光度各不相同。
Given the resurgence in international travel, the company stands to benefit most.
鑑於國際旅行的復甦，該公司將從中受益最大。
TransDigm's historic success is undeniable, but higher interest rates and a mix shift toward OEM sales will moderate the upside, given already high expectations for growth.
TransDigm的歷史性成功是不可否認的，但鑑於對增長的預期已經很高，更高的利率和向OEM銷售的混合轉變將抑制上行空間。
Spirit's recent MoA with Boeing and changes to the capital structure are helping to reduce concerns about 2025 debt maturities.
Spirit最近與波音簽訂的諒解協議以及資本結構的變化有助於減少對2025年債務到期日的擔憂。
Aftermarket demand will likely remain strong in 2024 before slowing in 2025, and HEICO probably has the most upside to pricing, having not raised prices at the same level as OEMs in 2022-2023. That should drive margin, earnings, and FCF upside in 2024-25.
售後市場需求可能會在2024年保持強勁，然後在2025年放緩，而HEICO的定價空間可能最大，因爲在2022-2023年將價格提高到與原始設備製造商相同的水平。這應該會在2024-25年推動利潤、收益和FCF的上行空間。
AAR stands to benefit from continued strength in aftermarket services demand that compliments growth in new product distribution.
AAR將受益於售後服務需求的持續強勁，這與新產品分銷的增長相輔相成。