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开源证券:明确地产和城投化险导向 优质城农商行和高股息大行有望受益

Open source securities: clarifying the direction of real estate and urban investment and chemical insurance, high-quality urban and agricultural commercial banks and banks with high dividends are expected to benefit

Zhitong Finance ·  11/20/2023 14:22

The conference clearly supports risk mitigation in the two major industries of real estate and financing platforms, and focuses on the stability of credit investment. The policy direction is clear, and policy strength is expected to be strengthened.

The Zhitong Finance app learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that on November 17, the Central Bank, the General Administration of Financial Supervision, and the Securities Regulatory Commission jointly held a symposium on financial institutions. The conference clearly supports risk mitigation in the two major industries of real estate and financing platforms, and focuses on the stability of credit investment. The policy orientation is clear, and policy strength is expected to be strengthened. The bank believes that high-quality urban and agricultural commercial banks and high-dividend banks are expected to benefit, and is more optimistic: 1) Main line 1: Valuation restoration of high-quality regional banks, such as Bank of Ningbo (002142.SZ), Bank of Chengdu (601838.SH), Bank of Jiangsu (600919.SH), etc. 2) Main line 2: Focus on the high dividend allocation logic of major banks, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank (601398.SH), Agricultural Bank (601288.SH), and Postal Savings Bank (). 601658.SH

Incident: On November 17, the Central Bank, the General Administration of Financial Supervision, and the Securities Regulatory Commission jointly held a symposium on financial institutions. This conference focuses on studying and implementing the spirit of the Central Financial Work Conference at the end of October. It mainly revolves around hot topics such as credit, real estate, and urban investment bonds. It has certain guiding significance for the financial resource management at the end of the year and 2024. The conference was highly qualified. Participants included participants from various financial systems such as regulators, banks, AMC, and securities companies.

Open source securities views are as follows:

Credit investment: Emphasize balanced credit investment, taking into account the end of the year and a “good start”

Overall, in line with the Q3 monetary policy meeting, “implement cross-cycle and countercyclical adjustments” is re-introduced, emphasis is placed on balanced credit investment, credit investment in the next two months of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 is considered in an integrated manner, and the stability of credit growth is used to promote steady economic growth. The total amount of credit in October was the same as expected, but structurally, medium- to long-term loans were weak, and the sustainability of the total amount of credit may be insufficient. The bank's review found that historically, when credit-related symposiums led by the central bank were held the following month, the total volume of social finance and RMB loans mostly exceeded expectations.

Structurally, this symposium reinvigorates “revitalizing existing financial resources,” or encourages banks and other financial institutions to revitalize existing credit assets through ABS and non-performing loan write-off, etc., which is expected to drive the growth of medium- to long-term loans. Consistent with the formulation of the video conference on August 18, this conference once again raised “enhancing the sustainability of financial support for the real economy,” with the intention of reaffirming the care for banks' reasonable profits. The bank estimates that the average net interest spread of listed banks in the first three quarters of 2023 was 1.80%, which has already reached the EPA project's full score standard. The pressure to manage interest spreads is high. It is expected that there is still room for deposit listing interest rates to be lowered, but the timing of the reduction is still in preparation, and it may be implemented as soon as possible within the year.

Real Estate Finance: Affirm the effects of previous policies and bring up the “Guarantee House” again

The conference confirmed that the financial sector's comprehensive policies on both the supply and demand sides, the “three arrows”, and mortgage loan optimization policies have achieved good results. In conjunction with the housing enterprise symposium held recently, the policy direction for real estate risk mitigation and high-quality development is very firm, taking into account the quantitative insurance and incremental restructuring of real estate: the first is to reintroduce “increase financial support for insured buildings” to promote mergers, acquisitions and restructuring in the industry, or be related to the recent risks of individual housing enterprises; second, emphasis is placed on promoting the construction of a new model for real estate development. At present, housing companies' risks are nearing an end. Most banks have already made sufficient provisions for real estate exposure, and future credit resources may be more skewed towards affordable housing, rental housing, etc.

Urban Investment Bonds: Clarifying the debt model, requiring the elimination of inventories+strict control of growth

Clearly guide financial institutions to conduct equal negotiations with financing platforms, and exchange time for space through extensions, use of new and old, and replacement to achieve risk sharing. Market concerns about banks' risk exposure to urban investment are expected to be further alleviated. Furthermore, the conference clearly proposed “cooperating with local governments to steadily resolve stocks and strictly control new additions,” and it is expected that banks' exposure to urban investment will continue to maintain a steady downward trend in pressure.

Risk warning: macroeconomic growth rate is declining, policy implementation falls short of expectations, etc.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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