As Towngas Smart Energy (HKG:1083) Advances 4.2% This Past Week, Investors May Now Be Noticing the Company's Five-year Earnings Growth
As Towngas Smart Energy (HKG:1083) Advances 4.2% This Past Week, Investors May Now Be Noticing the Company's Five-year Earnings Growth
While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited (HKG:1083) share price up 15% in a single quarter. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. In fact, the share price is down 45%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
儘管這對一些股東來說可能還不夠,但我們認爲煤氣智慧能源有限公司(HKG: 1083)的股價在單季度內上漲15%是件好事。但是,如果你看看過去的五年,回報並不理想。實際上,股價下跌了45%,遠低於購買指數基金所能獲得的回報。
On a more encouraging note the company has added HK$436m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
更令人鼓舞的是,該公司的市值在過去的7天內就增加了4.36億港元,因此讓我們看看我們能否確定是什麼推動了股東五年虧損。
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
在他的文章中 格雷厄姆和多茲維爾的超級投資者 禾倫·巴菲特描述了股價如何並不總是合理地反映企業的價值。通過比較每股收益(EPS)和一段時間內的股價變化,我們可以了解投資者對公司的態度是如何隨着時間的推移而變化的。
While the share price declined over five years, Towngas Smart Energy actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 1.4% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
儘管股價在五年內下跌,但煤氣智慧能源實際上設法做到了 增加 每股收益平均每年增長1.4%。因此,每股收益似乎不是了解市場如何估值股票的好指南。或者,過去的增長預期可能不合理。
Based on these numbers, we'd venture that the market may have been over-optimistic about forecast growth, half a decade ago. Having said that, we might get a better idea of what's going on with the stock by looking at other metrics.
根據這些數字,我們敢說,五年前,市場可能對預測的增長過於樂觀。話雖如此,我們可以通過查看其他指標來更好地了解該股的情況。
We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. While it's not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company's history might help explain it.
我們注意到股息一直保持健康,因此這並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。儘管股價下跌的原因尚不完全明顯,但仔細研究該公司的歷史可能有助於解釋這一點。
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下圖描述了收入和收入隨時間推移而發生的變化(點擊圖片即可顯示確切的數值)。
Towngas Smart Energy is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
煤氣智慧能源爲投資者所熟知,許多聰明的分析師試圖預測未來的利潤水平。鑑於我們有相當多的分析師預測,這張描繪共識估計的免費圖表可能值得一看。
What About Dividends?
分紅呢?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Towngas Smart Energy's TSR for the last 5 years was -34%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了衡量股價回報率外,投資者還應考慮股東總回報率(TSR)。基於股息再投資的假設,股東總回報率納入了任何分拆或貼現資本籌集的價值以及任何股息。可以說,股東總回報率更全面地描述了股票產生的回報。碰巧的是,煤氣智慧能源過去5年的股東總回報率爲-34%,超過了前面提到的股價回報率。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種分歧是沒有好處的!
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
While the broader market gained around 3.8% in the last year, Towngas Smart Energy shareholders lost 11% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Towngas Smart Energy (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.
儘管去年整體市場上漲了約3.8%,但煤氣智慧能源的股東損失了11%(甚至包括股息)。即使是優質股票的股價有時也會下跌,但我們希望在過於感興趣之前看到企業基本指標的改善。遺憾的是,去年的業績結束了糟糕的表現,股東在五年內每年面臨6%的總虧損。我們意識到羅斯柴爾德男爵曾說過,投資者應該 “在街頭流血時買入”,但我們警告說,投資者應首先確保他們購買的是高質量的企業。儘管市場狀況可能對股價產生的不同影響值得考慮,但還有其他因素更爲重要。比如風險。每家公司都有,我們發現了 Towngas Smart Energy 的 3 個警告標誌(其中 1 個有點令人擔憂!)你應該知道。
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
如果你想看看另一家公司——一家財務狀況可能優異的公司——那麼千萬不要錯過這份已經證明自己可以增加收益的公司的免費名單。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。