DavidBeeby
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This week we have:
1. Four Magnificent 7 companies report earnings: $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ , $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US$ , $Meta Platforms(META.US$ , and $Tesla(TSLA.US$
2. Nvidia, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ , officially down 20% from its peak
3. Super Micro Computer, $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US$ , down nearly 50% from its peak
4. March PCE inflation data is reported
What’s your boldest prediction for the week?
1. Four Magnificent 7 companies report earnings: $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ , $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US$ , $Meta Platforms(META.US$ , and $Tesla(TSLA.US$
2. Nvidia, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ , officially down 20% from its peak
3. Super Micro Computer, $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US$ , down nearly 50% from its peak
4. March PCE inflation data is reported
What’s your boldest prediction for the week?
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DavidBeeby
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-Cloud spend continues to have growth. 27% of total IT spend in cloud and 42% of workloads in cloud.
-AI spend remains early. Vast majority of respondents indicated AI spend this year will be <5% of total budget
- $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ / OpenAI remains preferred model / infra by far. $Amazon(AMZN.US$ / Anthropic a distant second [bear in mind these are traditional, legacy enterprises being surveyed – not AI startups]
-Big 4 recipients of cloud spend are $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ , ...
-AI spend remains early. Vast majority of respondents indicated AI spend this year will be <5% of total budget
- $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ / OpenAI remains preferred model / infra by far. $Amazon(AMZN.US$ / Anthropic a distant second [bear in mind these are traditional, legacy enterprises being surveyed – not AI startups]
-Big 4 recipients of cloud spend are $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ , ...
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US private sector financial assets are 6.0x larger than the entire US economy, near the record of 6.3x.
The value of these assets has skyrocketed with the S&P 500 up nearly 25% since October 2023.
Even during the Great Financial Crisis, this ratio peaked at ~5.0x just before QE started in 2008.
After interest rates were slashed to zero and $4 trillion in stimulus was handed out, financial assets in the US have seen the largest surge in history.
As a result, with the top 1% of Americans now contr...
The value of these assets has skyrocketed with the S&P 500 up nearly 25% since October 2023.
Even during the Great Financial Crisis, this ratio peaked at ~5.0x just before QE started in 2008.
After interest rates were slashed to zero and $4 trillion in stimulus was handed out, financial assets in the US have seen the largest surge in history.
As a result, with the top 1% of Americans now contr...
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DavidBeeby
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This is incredible:
The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025.
Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days.
To put this in perspective, if US debt hits $40 trillion in 2025 that would be a $17 TRILLION increase since 2020.
That would be a ~570% jump in US Federal debt since 2000, a 25-year period.
The worst part?
This analysis assumes that we are on track for a "soft landing."
What happens if a...
The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025.
Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days.
To put this in perspective, if US debt hits $40 trillion in 2025 that would be a $17 TRILLION increase since 2020.
That would be a ~570% jump in US Federal debt since 2000, a 25-year period.
The worst part?
This analysis assumes that we are on track for a "soft landing."
What happens if a...
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DavidBeeby
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Crazy chart:
The Nasdaq 100 index, relative to commodities has reached the highest level since the Dot-com bubble.
Meanwhile, US tech market cap share of the total US equity market is at 33%, also the largest since March 2000.
Since 2021, the Nasdaq 100 has DOUBLED relative to commodity prices.
This also comes as the market cap of the Magnificent 7 has passed $10 trillion for the first time in history.
Tech stocks ARE the stock market.
$Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ $Apple(AAPL.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$
The Nasdaq 100 index, relative to commodities has reached the highest level since the Dot-com bubble.
Meanwhile, US tech market cap share of the total US equity market is at 33%, also the largest since March 2000.
Since 2021, the Nasdaq 100 has DOUBLED relative to commodity prices.
This also comes as the market cap of the Magnificent 7 has passed $10 trillion for the first time in history.
Tech stocks ARE the stock market.
$Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ $Apple(AAPL.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$
7
Feels liked the market just searched for a reason to pull back.
If this truly was either the Ukraine nato news, the fed comment or any other real reason we would have seen a reaction on the bond market or from yields.
Instead we actually closed lower on yields and higher on bonds.
This is the first pullback that is hard to explain in a while which makes me believe that’s all it is.
Macro elements could still further deteriorate which is something you might want to look for as a follow up to t...
If this truly was either the Ukraine nato news, the fed comment or any other real reason we would have seen a reaction on the bond market or from yields.
Instead we actually closed lower on yields and higher on bonds.
This is the first pullback that is hard to explain in a while which makes me believe that’s all it is.
Macro elements could still further deteriorate which is something you might want to look for as a follow up to t...
1
DavidBeeby
liked
The ratio between tech stocks and the S&P 500 is now over 2 standard deviations ABOVE its historical mean.
Even during the Dot-com bubble of the late 1990s’, this metric peaked at 1.6 standard deviations.
Since 2008, tech stocks have consistently outperformed the S&P 500.
During this time, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 returned 1,167% and 667%, respectively.
With the mergence of AI, US markets are now almost entirely driven by tech stocks.
Are we overdue for a correction? $Apple(AAPL.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$
...
Even during the Dot-com bubble of the late 1990s’, this metric peaked at 1.6 standard deviations.
Since 2008, tech stocks have consistently outperformed the S&P 500.
During this time, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 returned 1,167% and 667%, respectively.
With the mergence of AI, US markets are now almost entirely driven by tech stocks.
Are we overdue for a correction? $Apple(AAPL.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$
...
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DavidBeeby
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Stock concentration is now at Great Depression levels:
According to Goldman Sachs, the market cap of the largest stock is now 750 TIMES the market cap of a 75th percentile stock.
To put this in perspective, even at the peak of the 2000 Dot-com bubble the metric only hit 550x.
We officially have a higher stock concentration than the peak of the Great Depression in 1932.
The top 10% of stocks in the US now reflect ~75% of the entire market.
Big tech IS the stock market.
$Apple(AAPL.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$
According to Goldman Sachs, the market cap of the largest stock is now 750 TIMES the market cap of a 75th percentile stock.
To put this in perspective, even at the peak of the 2000 Dot-com bubble the metric only hit 550x.
We officially have a higher stock concentration than the peak of the Great Depression in 1932.
The top 10% of stocks in the US now reflect ~75% of the entire market.
Big tech IS the stock market.
$Apple(AAPL.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$
7
Buckle up:
Nvidia, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ , is now just $300 billion away from passing Apple, $Apple(AAPL.US$ , as the second largest company in the world.
That means Nvidia would need to rise another 13% to dethrone Apple.
With $NVDA currently trading at $919, we would need to see a move to $1040 for the stock to pass $AAPL.
Just 4 years ago, Apple was more than 20 TIMES larger than Nvidia was.
It's now nearly 5 TIMES larger than Walmart, $Walmart(WMT.US$ , by market cap.
We are witnessing h...
Nvidia, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ , is now just $300 billion away from passing Apple, $Apple(AAPL.US$ , as the second largest company in the world.
That means Nvidia would need to rise another 13% to dethrone Apple.
With $NVDA currently trading at $919, we would need to see a move to $1040 for the stock to pass $AAPL.
Just 4 years ago, Apple was more than 20 TIMES larger than Nvidia was.
It's now nearly 5 TIMES larger than Walmart, $Walmart(WMT.US$ , by market cap.
We are witnessing h...
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$Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$
Powell clarifies: No push for inflation to hit 2%, but evidence is key.
Current inflation trends meet Fed's expectations, seeking continuity.
Anticipate a gradual decrease in 12-month inflation rates.
Future rate cuts hinge on incoming data analysis.
Recession fears? Powell sees no immediate risk.
Optimistic about avoiding a U...
Powell clarifies: No push for inflation to hit 2%, but evidence is key.
Current inflation trends meet Fed's expectations, seeking continuity.
Anticipate a gradual decrease in 12-month inflation rates.
Future rate cuts hinge on incoming data analysis.
Recession fears? Powell sees no immediate risk.
Optimistic about avoiding a U...
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