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大智若愚 Male ID: 103909473
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    $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ In recent times, more and more signs indicate that the inflection point for interest rate hikes is about to appear, making large-scale layoffs in enterprises inevitable.
    Last weekend, Musk began the second wave of layoffs on Twitter, firing 80% of Twitter contractors.
    This is not a case of a “new broom sweeps clean” after coming into office. The trend of accelerated layoffs and rising unemployment rates throughout the USA is already significantly emerging.
    How far-reaching is the impact? Besides $Apple (AAPL.US)$ As a risk management tool, options also have leverage, which can help Mooers hedge their positions, gain big profits with a small investment, and enhance potential returns. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ In addition to other technology giants implementing layoffs, industry giants such as Disney (DIS.US) and GlobalFoundries (GFS.US) have also implemented recruitment freezes and are preparing for layoffs.
    Not only that, Wall Street has also begun wielding the axe of layoffs.
    Citigroup (C.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and other major banks have also joined the latest list of corporate layoffs.
    In fact, the US unemployment rate began to increase unexpectedly in October. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the US unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in October, an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous month, with the number of unemployed people rising directly to 6.1 million.
    The wave of layoffs has led to an increase in the unemployment rate, and may even indicate the peak of the economic cycle, all within the Fed's plan.
    I want to say, these signals may be beneficial to the company's stock price in the short term, but in the long term, from a macro perspective, it's just...
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    The wave of layoffs has begun in the United States.
    The video streaming giant Netflix is fully committed to the advertising business, and analysts claim it can help them survive the difficult times. Under the pressure of this year, $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ the stock price of Netflix is attempting a comeback after its collapse. Netflix's stock has fallen by about 75% from its high point to its low point, and has now risen by over 55% from the low point of around $163 per share. Despite the new development phase in the streaming media industry, Netflix's low-cost, ad-based subscription service will certainly change the company's current development status. However, I do believe that some of the concerns about the company have been exaggerated. In any case, analysts and investors are eager to see how the tiered subscription of low-priced subscriptions with ads and high-priced ad-free services will affect Netflix's financial performance at a time when the U.S. economy may be facing a recession.Netflix's foray into the advertising market may help them weather the storm.Given the subscriber losses this year, I believe that Netflix's decision to accept advertising may help it achieve a significant recovery, as the macroeconomic storm seems to be getting closer to people. After all, Netflix still has strong content and channels. Despite intensified competition in recent years, this streaming pioneer still has many popular television shows that are sure to be topics of discussion for people after meals. Whether it's "The Watcher" or the latest season of "Love is Blind," Netflix always has something that can captivate people. Netflix's subscription user base is soft, partly due to...
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    $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The Hang Seng Index is at a low point this year, 14,597, and has rebounded unnoticed by 2,771 points. The US CPI data is better than expected and has started to gradually decline. Some people in the market have once again suggested that the bottom of the Hang Seng Index has appeared, and it is uncertain whether a new bull market has begun. Whether the bull market returns depends on the trend in December.
    The United States is really good at playing financial tricks. Borrowing the better-than-expected CPI data, it soared 1,200 points violently. The Hang Seng Index benefited and also experienced a violent rise of 1,244 points last Friday, catching bearish investors off guard. Looking at the Hang Seng Index in November, it is clear that the bulls are winning. After the violent rise last Friday, it may be the final phase of this rebound. It is expected that resistance will occur in the range of 17,700, and the range from 18,100 to 18,200 is the biggest resistance zone in this rebound wave. If you ask me if there is a chance to break through, there is a possibility in the stock market. It depends on whether there is major bullish news to support it. If there is, then watch the range of 18,500 to 18,700. Of course, if you ask me now, I am temporarily focusing on the overall technical analysis.
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    In November, the Hang Seng Index rebounded significantly. Where will the rebound target go? Has the bear market ended?
    $Apple (AAPL.US)$
    In the few weeks since Musk joined Twitter, he has been a "troublemaker," from "slaughtering" executives and violent layoffs to launching user account "blue V verification." From Musk's entrepreneurial experience, he has always been a person who loves to play around.
    From the early days of Zip2 and PayPal, to later ventures like Everdream, Tesla, and DeepMind, Musk has been following a pattern of entrepreneurship, selling, and then starting again, using the money earned from one project to fund the next "money-making machine."This time, the acquisition of Twitter is no different. After completing the $44 billion acquisition, Musk sold $3.95 billion worth of Tesla stocks, the most profitable project among all of Musk's investments.
    Tesla, the most lucrative venture, has become the cash cow for Musk.Tesla, the most lucrative venture, has become the cash cow for Musk.
    "Adventurous" Musk
    In the few weeks since Musk joined Twitter, a series of "thunderous methods" have completed the work of others in a year, from "bloodying" executives, violent layoffs, to launching the user account "Blue V certification".
    From Musk's entrepreneurial experience, he has always been a person who loves to have fun.
    His first pot of gold came from a business information website called Zip2, which he co-founded with his brother (similar to an online yellow pages for businesses). The initial funding was $0.02 million provided by his father. Although in 1996, with the support of venture capital, Zip2 saw business expansion and turned losses into profits, differences with investors in the direction of operations ultimately led to Musk's departure.
    In 1999, Zip...
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    $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Tesla's investors are definitely angry about this transaction.
    First, it takes Elon's attention away from Tesla.
    Second, it forces Elon to sell Tesla.
    Third, if Twitter can't support its cash flow, Elon is likely to have to continue selling Tesla to finance Twitter.
    Twitter's huge debt repayments will force Elon to continue selling Tesla to finance it.
    If advertisers continue to withdraw their investments, he will have to keep selling his Tesla stocks.
    He borrowed money to buy Twitter with the Tesla stocks he holds. If Tesla falls, he will have to provide more collateral, otherwise he will be required to add margin.
    Elon may not know how to operate a social media company.
    Elon seems to be increasingly unsure of how to operate a social media company. For example, he demands changes based solely on his opinion, rather than running A/B tests to quantify the changes.
    Does Musk still need to continue selling Tesla to make up for the losses of Twitter? $Twitter (Delisted) (TWTR.US)$
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    $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ The high growth of the technology industry has already ended, and perhaps it will not come back. Companies like Microsoft with high P/E ratios could still drop by 50%. At the current interest rate, Microsoft's growth, Microsoft's value is within 100 dollars, possibly 50 to 70 dollars, or even lower. Perhaps you would say that the macro environment will definitely improve, but my view is that the next few years may be increasingly difficult, and the good days may be gone forever. The spring of technology stocks may still come, but perhaps I may not be there anymore.
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    $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ Good evening everyone, it's time for the market review. The recent domestic stock market has shown a positive trend. Although I don't have many chips in hand, as a bear, I think it's best to remain silent for now, observe more and speak less. However, tonight is a very important time for the U.S. stock market, so it is only right to write a market review. Let's talk about whether there have been any opportunities worth trading recently.
    [US Stock Market]
    The recent pattern of the U.S. stock market is quite clear. The release dates of several important events, such as the FOMC meeting and non-farm payrolls report, have been spread out. CPI data will be released before the market opens tomorrow, which leaves a period of time for the U.S. stock market to rebound. The market has been strong in terms of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US). $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ The recent market trend has been weak, especially for several major technology companies in the NASDAQ, until there are clear signs of recovery in their latest financial reports. It is only then that the NASDAQ will gradually wake up.
    Due to the reference of the previous monthly exams, it is not difficult to grasp the actual long and short flips during the trading days this week. The knowledge lies in the selection of rebound targets, with oversold stocks showing strong rebound momentum and early rebound stocks giving back. Technology stocks continue to weaken, while resource stocks are relatively stronger. Take the well-known new energy vehicle industry chain as an example. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Although it has recently reached a new low...
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    $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$Yesterday, when talking about Sichuan Jianguo's DWAC, I mentioned the option position ratio, and I can't get off work after the business is done today. By the way, I'll talk about the open position and trading volume of the option.
    What's the use of knowing these two? Help us to make a good choice of time and price when buying options.
    The number of open positions is how many options are still being held after yesterday's close.
    Trading volume is the number of options traded on the day.
    I set up a breakfast stall to sell breakfast. I bought 100 steamed buns. Today, I sold 80, the turnover is 80, and the number of outstanding positions is 100-80-20.
    How can I refer to it? If I want to make an option, before I buy and leave, I'd better go back and see which maturity date has more open positions in one or two months, because this represents that many people buy and hold options on this date and price, indicating that everyone is generally optimistic about this date and price, which may be what we usually call smart money.
    For example, I think NVIDIA Corp has an upward trend, combined with the graph, the target price is about 145. take a glance at the option chain outside 2 weeks (do not buy doomsday! On November 25th, 140,145,150 positions were open, and on December 2nd, 140,145and 150call were the most. The people who bet on 1 were the same as me. Plus 140 is close to the current price, the royalty of the 25th is 6.95, which is cheaper than 8.12 of the same price on December 2.
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