Trading resumed on November 9, is there an opportunity?
$Hang Seng TECH Index(800700.HK$ Good evening everyone. It's time to resume trading again. The recent rise in the domestic stock market has been impressive. Although I don't have many chips in my hands, as a shortfall, I think I should keep silent for a while, observe more, and talk less. However, tonight is a very important point in time for US stocks, so we should write a review article. Today, let's talk about whether there are any opportunities worth operating in the near future.
[US Stock Market]
Recently, the pattern of US stocks is quite clear. The dates for this month's “monthly exam” are staggered. The FOMC and non-farm payrolls are ahead, and the CPI data will be released before the market tomorrow, leaving a period of time in between for US stocks to rebound. Recently, the market continued to be strong in the $Dow Jones Index (.DJI.US) $$. $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$ The pattern is weak, and I believe this pattern will continue for some time. The NASDAQ index will not gradually wake up until the latest financial reports of several major technology stocks in the NASDAQ show clear signs of recovery.
[US Stock Market]
Recently, the pattern of US stocks is quite clear. The dates for this month's “monthly exam” are staggered. The FOMC and non-farm payrolls are ahead, and the CPI data will be released before the market tomorrow, leaving a period of time in between for US stocks to rebound. Recently, the market continued to be strong in the $Dow Jones Index (.DJI.US) $$. $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$ The pattern is weak, and I believe this pattern will continue for some time. The NASDAQ index will not gradually wake up until the latest financial reports of several major technology stocks in the NASDAQ show clear signs of recovery.
Since there are trends before and after the previous monthly tests as a reference, it is not very difficult to grasp the reality of turning over and over in these few trading days this week. Instead, the learning is all about choosing the target of the rebound. Over-falling stocks are rebounding strongly, while those that rebound early will throw up. Technology stocks continue to be weak, while resource stocks are relatively strong. Take the NEV industry chain that everyone is familiar with as an example. $Tesla(TSLA.US$ Although it has hit a new low recently, the rebound in $Chile Mining & Chemical (SQM.US) $ is being leveraged. This is all due to the fact that the Q3 earnings reports of several lithium mining stocks are so beautiful that it is impossible to single out any problems at all. $Proshares NASDAQ triples long ETF (TQQQ.US) $
US stocks switched to winter time this Monday and opened one hour later, so the release of tomorrow's CPI data was delayed until 9:30 p.m. According to a consistent conservative strategy, whether you have a short or long position, you should reduce your position before the data is released, or simply wait and see. Stock index futures will fluctuate very drastically at that time, just like gambling. All major banks also gave predictions as usual. I took a quick look. The possibility of meeting market expectations and being slightly lower than market expectations is greatest. Although I personally prefer to meet expectations, market fluctuations before and after the data is released are definitely not mitigated. There is no need to stir up this muddy water, wait for the results, and be ready to bet at the same time. Also, there isn't much to say about expectations for interest rate hikes. Although the probability of a decline is quite high, it is unlikely that it will end early. As a result, the market's sensitivity to interest rate hikes will gradually decrease. However, the power balance between long and short cannot be reversed right away, so it is very likely that the stock market will enter a volatile pattern, and there are few opportunities to go long and short on one side.
[Hong Kong Stock Market]
Hong Kong stocks are better than A shares, leading the two markets. Can you imagine such results as of last month? In the end, it's the most magical stock market in the world; anything is possible. We have become accustomed to looking for reasons for waves of ups and downs this year, so what is the reason for this round of sharp increases? Some people say that substantial progress has been made on the CPC audit issue; others speculate that the pace of opening up the mainland has accelerated. However, both of these points were later refuted by the market. In fact, none of this matters. What is important is that Beishui is breaking down very hard this time, which has clearly boosted trading volume and popularity, so the Hang Seng Index's rise will exceed the expectations of many people.
Of course, as an underdog, I would rather analyze the source and purpose of the main capital in the current market. Because some people say that foreign capital is the main force behind the bottom cut this time rather than North Shui, I don't think it's credible. The Fed's interest rate hike cycle is not over yet. How can a large amount of foreign investors with low risk appetite come back. As for Beishui, the mainland public fund market has been quiet for a long time. It is clearly unrealistic to expect a steady stream of fresh blood to bail out the market. Currently, it is still mainly a game of stock capital. Therefore, whether it is foreign investment or Beishui, the probability that Yu Zi will sing the lead role is probably even greater. After all, the volume of transactions is already so sluggish, and it is possible to leverage the market without too much capital. As for the purpose of gambling money, I don't need to ask, I know it's about making money. Where in Beishui is there any pattern, and few people believe in this gossip about trading value investing on the left. Otherwise, would we need to write some new stories for everyone to hear?
[Hong Kong Stock Market]
Hong Kong stocks are better than A shares, leading the two markets. Can you imagine such results as of last month? In the end, it's the most magical stock market in the world; anything is possible. We have become accustomed to looking for reasons for waves of ups and downs this year, so what is the reason for this round of sharp increases? Some people say that substantial progress has been made on the CPC audit issue; others speculate that the pace of opening up the mainland has accelerated. However, both of these points were later refuted by the market. In fact, none of this matters. What is important is that Beishui is breaking down very hard this time, which has clearly boosted trading volume and popularity, so the Hang Seng Index's rise will exceed the expectations of many people.
Of course, as an underdog, I would rather analyze the source and purpose of the main capital in the current market. Because some people say that foreign capital is the main force behind the bottom cut this time rather than North Shui, I don't think it's credible. The Fed's interest rate hike cycle is not over yet. How can a large amount of foreign investors with low risk appetite come back. As for Beishui, the mainland public fund market has been quiet for a long time. It is clearly unrealistic to expect a steady stream of fresh blood to bail out the market. Currently, it is still mainly a game of stock capital. Therefore, whether it is foreign investment or Beishui, the probability that Yu Zi will sing the lead role is probably even greater. After all, the volume of transactions is already so sluggish, and it is possible to leverage the market without too much capital. As for the purpose of gambling money, I don't need to ask, I know it's about making money. Where in Beishui is there any pattern, and few people believe in this gossip about trading value investing on the left. Otherwise, would we need to write some new stories for everyone to hear?
The bear market died at the bottom; this caution must not be lost. Also, from the perspective of trend investing, since the downward trend of the Hang Seng Index is long-term, the current rebound or reversal should also be analyzed from a relatively long cycle; it is useless to look at the daily line. Judging from Zhou K and Moon K, there has been so much movement recently. The weekly line has only just reached MA5, and the monthly line hasn't even reversed the big october candle. It's really too early to talk about the reversal.
[A-share market]
A-shares haven't been easy to talk about recently. I don't know if the market is too sensitive, or if Futu is too sensitive, and even if I say a few words, they can be blocked, making me a bit out of words. Don't look at A-shares overall behind Hong Kong stocks this week; in fact, it's because the “propeller” of the $Shanghai Composite Index (000001.SH) hit bottom on October 31, then pulled 5 positive candles. $GEM (399006.SZ) $ was 6 consecutive yang, so it's not that they haven't risen, but that's just a day ahead of schedule. Furthermore, the decline in A-shares since this year is not as drastic as that of Hong Kong stocks. You can't compare the increase over a range of time periods.
[A-share market]
A-shares haven't been easy to talk about recently. I don't know if the market is too sensitive, or if Futu is too sensitive, and even if I say a few words, they can be blocked, making me a bit out of words. Don't look at A-shares overall behind Hong Kong stocks this week; in fact, it's because the “propeller” of the $Shanghai Composite Index (000001.SH) hit bottom on October 31, then pulled 5 positive candles. $GEM (399006.SZ) $ was 6 consecutive yang, so it's not that they haven't risen, but that's just a day ahead of schedule. Furthermore, the decline in A-shares since this year is not as drastic as that of Hong Kong stocks. You can't compare the increase over a range of time periods.
However, it is true that A-shares have been lackluster recently. Perhaps none of the main contradictions or points of interest are in the mainland stock market. After the meeting was completed, they did not export any substantial economic ZC, and it was difficult for industry researchers to cook without rice; there was no content to talk about. I mentioned the issue of the height of the rebound in the previous review. Unfortunately, the height of the rebound in the current round of A-shares still did not exceed the high point of the previous round, and the record index only briefly exceeded 1 point last time, which is better than nothing. Looking at this situation, A-shares may be dominated by a pattern of range-bound fluctuations for some time to come. If the trading volume shrinks back to the ground volume level, the unbalanced index will reach a new low. However, if the opening of the Spring Festival in 2023 clearly surpasses that of previous years, then there may still be room for recovery in market popularity. OK, that's all for now.
[Let's talk about making an empty target again]
Finally, I would like to add a few comments on shorting the bid. The first is $Bilibili (BILI.US) $$Bilibili - W (09626.HK) $. Recently, there have been more and more industry research articles on Station B, and the continued sharp drop in stock prices has attracted the attention of all parties, but I don't know if my friends at Lao San have noticed the news that Mr. Rui fired the head of the game division and personally took charge of the game business.
Station B's revenue mainly consists of four parts: advertising, membership, games, and e-commerce. We've talked about the advertising business before. It's difficult to make major adjustments to the model. We've also talked about e-commerce (membership purchases). The self-operated business model for core fans is bound to have few SKUs and slow payback, and it also faces the dilemma of whether to break the original model. In fact, the game business is most likely to be the first to get out of the quagmire. Not to mention that Station B doesn't like the red Miha tour. I think their eyes will soon be red and bleeding, but the main problems encountered in this area are the trade-off between the introduction of IP and independent development, as well as the long approval cycle. The big boss personally launched the game business. It's not that Mr. Rui himself knows how much the game business is; rather, some resources must be integrated by the CEO, and some relationships must be unblocked by the CEO. In times of crisis for the company, it was only when the CEO was able to show how capable it was. But I don't think this move will pay off quickly. The key to developing and creating games is a human issue. It takes time to find a good game development team. There are countless examples of rapid medical treatment in the industry, and there are also plenty of listed game companies that have transformed and gone out of business. Station B must ensure that they don't make mistakes in the first place, don't waste their already insufficient cash flow in vain, and then just wait for the whole environment to recover.
Another one is this year's popular stock $New Oriental Online (01797.HK) $. My research on this company is far less in-depth than Station B, and the Douyin platform that Lao Yu is currently focusing on is also a direction I am very optimistic about. But there's an old saying, can a tree rise to the sky? Impossible. 1797 fell from a high of 43 yuan to a low of 2.8 yuan because the entire industry disappeared and the business model was overturned. And just this week, the stock price not only rose back up, but also hit a new high of 45 yuan. The company is still the same company, but the business is completely different. In the past, in the education and training industry, New Oriental's position was at the benchmark level. Now entering the e-commerce field, it itself needs to be attached to the Douyin platform. Furthermore, New Oriental is far from being a benchmark in the industry. However, the stock price has already reacted ahead of time, and there are even suspicions that it has overreacted. Another phenomenon worth being wary of is the obsession and fanaticism of retail investors. Every day, many people are chasing GMV data to talk about things, and they can even watch the live broadcast without interruption. Retail fanaticism is an extremely dangerous sign for a stock, and history is no exception. Is 1797 overrated? Will the stock price rise or fall in the short term? I'm not going to make a conclusion. Simply speaking of speculating on a theme stock in a bear market, I think the big show will end sooner or later; I'm afraid everyone else will run out, and you're still queuing up to buy tickets.
[Let's talk about making an empty target again]
Finally, I would like to add a few comments on shorting the bid. The first is $Bilibili (BILI.US) $$Bilibili - W (09626.HK) $. Recently, there have been more and more industry research articles on Station B, and the continued sharp drop in stock prices has attracted the attention of all parties, but I don't know if my friends at Lao San have noticed the news that Mr. Rui fired the head of the game division and personally took charge of the game business.
Station B's revenue mainly consists of four parts: advertising, membership, games, and e-commerce. We've talked about the advertising business before. It's difficult to make major adjustments to the model. We've also talked about e-commerce (membership purchases). The self-operated business model for core fans is bound to have few SKUs and slow payback, and it also faces the dilemma of whether to break the original model. In fact, the game business is most likely to be the first to get out of the quagmire. Not to mention that Station B doesn't like the red Miha tour. I think their eyes will soon be red and bleeding, but the main problems encountered in this area are the trade-off between the introduction of IP and independent development, as well as the long approval cycle. The big boss personally launched the game business. It's not that Mr. Rui himself knows how much the game business is; rather, some resources must be integrated by the CEO, and some relationships must be unblocked by the CEO. In times of crisis for the company, it was only when the CEO was able to show how capable it was. But I don't think this move will pay off quickly. The key to developing and creating games is a human issue. It takes time to find a good game development team. There are countless examples of rapid medical treatment in the industry, and there are also plenty of listed game companies that have transformed and gone out of business. Station B must ensure that they don't make mistakes in the first place, don't waste their already insufficient cash flow in vain, and then just wait for the whole environment to recover.
Another one is this year's popular stock $New Oriental Online (01797.HK) $. My research on this company is far less in-depth than Station B, and the Douyin platform that Lao Yu is currently focusing on is also a direction I am very optimistic about. But there's an old saying, can a tree rise to the sky? Impossible. 1797 fell from a high of 43 yuan to a low of 2.8 yuan because the entire industry disappeared and the business model was overturned. And just this week, the stock price not only rose back up, but also hit a new high of 45 yuan. The company is still the same company, but the business is completely different. In the past, in the education and training industry, New Oriental's position was at the benchmark level. Now entering the e-commerce field, it itself needs to be attached to the Douyin platform. Furthermore, New Oriental is far from being a benchmark in the industry. However, the stock price has already reacted ahead of time, and there are even suspicions that it has overreacted. Another phenomenon worth being wary of is the obsession and fanaticism of retail investors. Every day, many people are chasing GMV data to talk about things, and they can even watch the live broadcast without interruption. Retail fanaticism is an extremely dangerous sign for a stock, and history is no exception. Is 1797 overrated? Will the stock price rise or fall in the short term? I'm not going to make a conclusion. Simply speaking of speculating on a theme stock in a bear market, I think the big show will end sooner or later; I'm afraid everyone else will run out, and you're still queuing up to buy tickets.
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