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RachXchange Private ID: 102425775
Forex market is nice
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    I picked up a ton during the pandemic in the low $50s. I'll hold it forever but can't buy anymore for weighting reasons. $The Toronto-Dominion Bank(TD.CA)$
    Tesla has just made significant price cuts (again) on three of its five models in the United States. Late Friday, Tesla slashed $2,000 off the prices of its Model Y, Model X, and Model S vehicles. These adjustments leave the price tags for the Model Y starting at $42,990, Model S at $72,990, and Model X at $77,990. Notably, prices for the Model 3 sedan and the Cybertruck remained unchanged.
    The Model Y, a compact SUV and Tesla’s most popular model, is currentl...
    Tesla Just Cut Vehicle Prices, Again
    Tesla Just Cut Vehicle Prices, Again
    Tesla Just Cut Vehicle Prices, Again
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    Good morning mooers! Here are things you need to know about today's market:
    ● S&P/TSX 60 Index Standard Futures are trading at 1,334.40, up 0.38%.
    ● Canadians are concerned about federal deficit, believe Ottawa is spending 'too much'
    ● EIA expects US natural gas inventories to remain high through 2025
    ● Canada to allow 30-year amortization for first-time buyers' mortgages on new homes
    ● Stocks to watch:...
    Everything You Need to Know on Friday: Paramount Resources Sells $75 Million In NuVista Shares
    RachXchange liked and commented on
    $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ Rising wages, labor shortages, supply chain bottlenecks leading to extra costs were the name of the game in Q3. This seems like it's a theme that will continue into, and probably beyond, the all-important Q4 holiday season for e-commerce. It will be difficult to pass costs on to consumers during this highly competitive quarter.
    On a whole, the numbers were not awful, but they also were not impressive. Total revenue for the quarter was $110.8B, up 15% from Q3 2020 which came in at $96.1B. Costs were up significantly, however, and operating income for the quarter dropped to $4.9B from $6.2B a year ago. Cash from operations was also down from $12B in Q3 2020 to $7.3B in Q3 2021. Inventory, shipping, and labor costs are likely culprits. Diluted earnings per share were chopped in half to $6.12 from $12.37 a year ago.
    Taken separately, the ecommerce figures were very discouraging. Product sales were up a mere 4% from Q3 2020. Yes, there is a COVID-19 effect to factor in, however, this is anemic any way one slices it. On a whole, the ecommerce segments of North America and International were net unprofitable for the quarter, losing $31M in operating income. The retail business has never been hugely profitable, however, investors have been hoping that scaling would lead to better profitability. Instead, AWS is the saving grace.
    There is a great disparity between the revenue and income produced by AWS as compared to the bulky e-commerce segments.
    As shown above, despite taking in only 13% of revenues, AWS was responsible for more than 50% of operating profits for the first two quarters of 2021. AWS as a segment has tremendous margins. This trend has been exacerbated in Q3.
    Below I have updated the figures for Q3 2021 and the nine months then ended.
    As we can see, the Q3 numbers are skewed as the e-commerce business posted an operating loss. However, this is no less telling. For the first three quarters of 2021, this trend has accelerated from over 50% to now well over 60% of operating profits being provided by AWS. With its impressive growth, the total revenue provided by AWS is also up from 13% to 15%.
    It truly is a tale of two companies. However, it should be three.
    AMZN 2021 Q3 results
    AMZN 2021 Q3 results
    AMZN 2021 Q3 results
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    $Tesla(TSLA.US)$Tesla is by far not a bad company, but there could still be trouble ahead. This is due to two key factors - its valuation and its problems when it comes to delivering on growth promises.
    Tesla has generated a net profit of $1.86 per share during the third quarter - the highest quarterly profit ever. If we annualize that, we get to EPS of $7.44 - shares trade at around 120x that amount today. That is an absolutely outrageous valuation for an automobile company, but even when we compare Tesla to other high-growth mega-caps such as $Amazon(AMZN.US)$, $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$, $Facebook(FB.US)$, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$or $Netflix(NFLX.US)$, its valuation is by far the highest in that group. Amazon, the second-most expensive company in that group, trades at roughly half of Tesla's valuation, while others, such as Facebook, trade at less than one-quarter of Tesla's valuation - despite delivering huge growth of around 40% this year as well.
    Looking at Tesla's valuation relative to the free cash flow the company generates, the picture worsens further. Tesla has generated around $4 billion in free cash over the last year, which means that shares are valued at a free cash flow multiple of more than 200 right now - which pencils out to a measly free cash flow yield of less than 0.5%. This holds true, surprisingly, despite the fact that Tesla has continued to issue massive amounts of shares. Over the last year alone, the diluted share count has risen by 18 million - which pencils out to a $16 billion increase in the company's market capitalization, all else equal.
    Stock-based compensation has totaled around $2.2 billion over the last four quarters, and yet, free cash flow stood at just around $4 billion. Adjusted for SBC, free cash flows would have totaled around $2 billion over the last year, which pencils out to a free cash flow multiple north of 400 - which is way too expensive, I believe.
    Tesla bulls oftentimes ascribe a lot of value to future business units, such as Tesla's upcoming entry in the electric pick-up market (Cybertruck), or its self-driving project. Both of these future growth projects are feeling some headwinds, however. Tesla has recently taken the pricing for the Cybertruck off its website, along with some specs:
    The reasoning for that has not been publicized, but it seems possible that Tesla is realizing that the truck can't be profitably sold at a price of less than $40,000. Possibly, manufacturing headwinds or commodity price increases will force Tesla to sell the truck at higher prices, which would be a reasonable explanation for why the company has taken pricing information off its website. This, in turn, would worsen the Cybertruck's attractiveness versus competitors' offers, such as   $Ford Motor(F.US)$ F-150 Lightning. The fact that mass production for the Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2023 further pressures the outlook for this model.
    Likewise, Tesla has not had too much success with its robo-car approach in recent weeks. Official probes into Tesla's Autopilot, along with a less-than-stellar performance of the latest FSD Beta version threaten the thesis that this will be a huge value driver in the foreseeable future. Some analysts and commenters also believe that the newly-appointed NHTSA Senior Advisor for Safety, Missy Cummings, who is a known Tesla critic, could put more pressure on Tesla and its self-driving claims.
    To me, it looks like two of the most important potential growth drivers over the coming years, Tesla's Cybertruck and its self-driving project, are running into headwinds, which could pressure shares in the future, as they are currently priced for perfection.
    The ugly things in Tesla's Q3 results
    The ugly things in Tesla's Q3 results
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    RachXchange commented on
    $Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC.US)$ Risk isn't a function of certainty - it's a function of underpaying. So if you want to take a new risk today, perhaps consider this SPAC sponsor's other SPACs - $MAQUIA CAP ACQUISITION CORP UNIT 1 CL A & 1/2 WT EXP(MAQCU.US)$ , $Yunhong International(ZGYHU.US)$, and $BENESSERE CAP ACQUISITION CORP UNITS(1 ORD SHS A & 1 RT & 3/4 RED WT)(BENEU.US)$ They each come with an embedded free $10 put, which means that they have little to lose and a lot to gain. In my weekly SPAC Focus series, I describe these types of IPOs as having:
    equity-like upside and treasury-like downside.
    Today, DWAC proves the former, but if you also want the latter, then start with the pre-deal SPACs to protect your capital. For more action, you can buy their warrants -- $MAQUIA CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP C/WTS (TO PUR COM)(MAQCW.US)$, $Yunhong International C/Wts 31/01/2027 (To Pur Com)(ZGYHW.US)$, and $BENESSERE CAP ACQUISITION CORP C/WTS (TO PUR COM)(BENEW.US)$.
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    $Facebook(FB.US)$ $Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC.US)$ $Snap Inc(SNAP.US)$ Bottom line is where else is digital ad spending going to go?? Anything that hurts FB will hurt every other player MORE. How will this redirect spending anywhere else? We going to going to back to full page ads in Seventeen magazine (assuming they’ve overcome their sin of harming teen self esteem)? Will it shift from iOS to Android? Surprise - FB is on Android too. The market will adjust to Apple’s holier than thou role and most likely Apple itself will help broker a deal. Everyone makes money if the ad market is targeted well. If it is not, well, we’ll get more ads. The budgets won’t be cut. Cutting implies another more productive use for them. And there isn’t any. Some method to improve ad efficiency will be rolled out - most likely by the big guys. Again, disadvantage small fry.
    Same with any proposed regulation. Big companies are easily able to adapt. Smaller ones, well, that’s just a wee bit harder on them. And despite the thundering sermons from the congressional pulpit, it doesn’t seem there’s any mote of agreement about what to do with regards to regulation. Once we get past the phony indignation phase about how dare FB harm teen girl’s self esteem by showing them pictures girls post of each other, pretty much the same issue every teen magazine anywhere anytime has faced, we’ll get to a point where the Dems want FB to be more censorious and the Reps - dammit you are being too censorious - cut back! Yeah - I’d like to see that legislation voted upon and not filibustered. Don’t hold your breath.
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    $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ Amazon's results tend to be amazing, the market often doesn't care, and tech in general faces potentially harsh short-term interest rate headwinds.
    But guess what? None of that matters to long-term investors.
    Fortunes are made by buying right and holding on. - Tom Phelps
    Today I buy what others won't, so tomorrow I earn returns others can't. - Jerry Rice paraphrase
    Every earnings season I set Amazon limits to take advantage of any earnings freak outs. Remember that today Amazon is trading at 20.8X cash flow, a ridiculously attractive valuation for a 32% growth company with an AA-rated balance sheet and numerous secular mega-trend growth catalysts that could drive hyper-growth for decades to come.
    All these reasons, plus the potential for nearly 300% returns in the next five years, is why Amazon, hands down, is the single best Buffett blue-chip bargain you can buy today.
    So if it does crash after earnings? There are just three words to describe the reasonable and prudent choice for long-term investors comfortable with its risk profile.
    Buy, Buy, Buy.
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