The recent sudden surge in gold prices has elicited a similar first reaction from many: why gold again? Is it another emotional trading spree? However, if you take a slightly longer-term view, this round of gold strength is not surprising and could even be described as very 'rational.' It’s not because the market is overly optimistic, but rather because uncertainty has once again been repriced. The U.S.'s tough actions against Venezuela serve as a typical trigger point. Geopolitical conflicts haven’t disappeared; they’ve just taken on a different form. Even if this event doesn’t necessarily escalate into a full-scale war, it is enough to remind the market of one thing: rules aren’t always stable, and risks never disappear linearly. In this environment, capital naturally turns to gold, using it as a base position to hedge against various potential variables in the future.
If we only look at the short term, the U.S. dollar remains strong, and U.S. Treasury yields are not low either. But what the market truly worries about isn't 'today,' but medium- to long-term structural issues. The pressure on U.S. finances, the aftereffects of high interest rates on the economy, and the slow but ongoing trend of de-dollarization globally—these factors may not appear in the news every day, but they constantly influence asset pricing logic. The rise in gold, at its core, is not a reflection of current realities but an advance response to future uncertainties. More importantly, in today's world where AI quantification and programmatic trading are highly prevalent, stocks are increasingly calculated by models, volatility is easier to capture, and sentiment is repeatedly harvested. In such a market environment, assets like gold—which have high liquidity, strong global consensus, and cannot be fully priced by a single model—become a natural buffer for funds. Therefore, this round of gold's rise is not an emotionally driven surge but a conscious adjustment by funds reallocating their portfolios.

The author of this article, Charlie, is the former Vice President of Strike, a cryptocurrency unicorn (involved in El Salvador's Bitcoin bill and responsible for Bitcoin and stablecoin payment businesses in Latin America), a macro analyst at Franklin Templeton, a trillion-dollar fund, and an early member of Adyen North America, a global payment giant. He currently serves as a cryptocurrency strategic advisor to multiple listed companies, startups, and investment institutions.
I hadn’t planned to write another piece before the end of the year, but there were so many highlights in Coinbase’s “System Update” event yesterday that I decided to put pen to paper once more.
This year, I wrote about Robinhood vs Coinbase: Differentiated Competition, Building the Wall Street for the Next Generation, and also discussed in-depth on a friend’s podcast E55. Robinhood vs Coinbase, In the New Wave of Crypto-Equity Integration, Who Will Be the Winner of the Next-Gen Fintech? ft. Charlie. Both are Gen-Z’s favorite financial apps, but this battle is becoming more complex.
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The launch event unveiled a series of new product features: stocks, prediction markets, perpetual contracts, integrating the long-tail assets from Base and Solana directly into Coinbase’s main app through DEX functionality...