Will we see some volatility very soon?
Doji Candles With a Long Upper Shadow
The market traded relatively flat on Friday and Monday. Each day had a strong move up during intraday trading, but still closed the day flat. This is a symptom of indecisive markets. Is the market expecting more volatility in the near future?
Possible Short-Term Weakness?
SPY futures are showing small signs of weakness on the very short timeframes. You can see a clear upward price channel on the 4-hour candles. We also see a slight bearish divergence between MACD and the price action of SPY futures. When I see a divergence like this near the upper bounds of a price channel, I am weary of a short-term pullback. Will we see at least a small pullback on the smaller timeframes?
Is Volatility Coming Back?
There were some interesting moves in VIX futures and a few of the VIX indices today.
VIX futures price is near an area where we have seen several rebounds in volatility in the recent past. Will we see another rebound in VIX futures soon?
We can see similar price action in the .VIX and .VVIX indices. We even saw a small gap up in these two indices over the weekend. Is this a small signal that investors are being more defensive?
Conclusion
The VIX indices have been more unreliable ever since 0-DTE options contracts began trading on the S&P 500. But it is still a reliable tool to potentially provide some sort of confirmation of any bullish or bearish thesis.
Personally, I am bullish since the long-term trend is still upward. But the market does not go straight up all of the time. Recently, the market has shown some weakness as we experienced a correction of almost 7% that began several weeks ago. So if we do see any pick up in volatility before making new all-time highs, then I think we will see some significant selling since the short-term technical picture is showing weakness.
I wouldn't exactly grab a bunch of short contracts right now. But I would be more open to some bearish positioning in the very short term if we do see the VIX indices climbing higher. Like a very quick swing trade to the downside, for example. Only if volatility picks up.
Good Luck Trading
As always, I am not a financial professional, and this is not investment advice. Be careful and be patient. Dont anticipate the market. Rather, participate in the market. Don't invest money that you can't afford to lose. Give some of your investments time and know when to cut your losses.
Don't be greedy. Don't invest in anything you don't understand. Don't put all of your eggs in one basket. Don't listen to the hype. Don't fomo or panic into or out of trades. Do your own due diligence. And just follow the trends. A trend is your friend. Good luck trading.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Kirk Holmes : broad market will likely trade flat or down tomorrow ahead of cpi print. also have pow pow speaking tomorrow after ppi. volatility may be present with gme depending on if shorties get involved and try to fight the prices down