Treasury yield vs stock market
10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 16.8 basis points last Friday - largest daily gain since Sep 2022. It had gone above 4% again.
In the past, market will react negatively to such jump. But right now, the market does not seem to care 🚀
From YouTube
$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO.US$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$ $U.S. 20-Year Treasury Bonds Yield(US20Y.BD$ $U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US2Y.BD$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US$ $USD(USDindex.FX$ $Palantir(PLTR.US$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$ $Russell 3000 Index Ishares(IWV.US$ $Russell Midcap Index Ishares(IWR.US$
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SpyderCall : Maybe investors think we are in a goldilocks trype of environment. I'm not in this camp, but I heard some analyst saying that he thinks interest rates are perfect right now based on inflation and jobs data.
As long as nothing starts to get too hot or too cold, then things might be in the goldilocks zone.
Most of the time in history, the Fed didn't start cutting rates until they knew something was about to break.
There have been times when interest rate cuts were not followed by a recession. But in past recessions, once the Fed started cutting rates and yield curves began to steepen, then a recession soon followed.
Let's just hope we don't see anything break. Like the banking system or some other area of the economy.
Cow Moo-neyOP SpyderCall: Calm before the storm? As you have mentioned, history is not quite on the Fed’s side when it comes to cutting of rates (usually something would have broken or there would be an imminent recession). But let’s hope that’s not the case this time
SpyderCall Cow Moo-neyOP: I hope nothing breaks for the well-being of individuals in the economy.
But as an investor, any recession might present an amazing investment opportunity. Just saying
Cow Moo-neyOP SpyderCall: Haha have to agree with you on this
ISTJ SpyderCall: I still strongly believe we are having a soft landing instead of recession.There was one and only one time soft landing happened in 1994-1995, and there are many similarities between now and then, low unemployment rate despite high interest rate, strong GDP growth above 3% etc. If Fed can start rate cut in May of June, they will pull it off this time.
ISTJ SpyderCall: On another note, I don’t buy in the WS pundits’ narratives, it’s important to note that they’re spreading the fear of recession for their interest but at retail investors’ expense. The $6T cash is waiting for our panic and then enter at a low price in their best interest because they sold their assets to take profit last year end and now it’s time for fishing.
razo2 SpyderCall: the banks will need to start paying the fed for their bonds that were held to maturity. lol. my guess is all on Biden. Biden doesn't want the collapse to happen during his presidential run or victory. I heard Trump will fire JP once he wins.
SpyderCall ISTJ: Right. I feel just about every headline or media narrative is for " their" interest. After all, they are the ones who pay to have this information dispursed. It is still a good idea to follow as you can read between the lines.
SpyderCall razo2: Yup. Trump said he would not reappoint him.
Seraphicall razo2:
