Is it time to buy the dip in treasuries?
Ultimately, the Fed will be the one dictating the direction of treasury bond prices. Without any major black swan or geopolitical events taking place, then all we need to do is follow the fed to determine what treasury prices will do.
If interest rates are coming down, or if the open market believes that they will, then treasury bonds will likely increase in price.
If the Fed keeps rates stagnant, then Treasury prices will likely remain stagnant.
If the Fed hikes rates again, then treasury prices will likely fall more.
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ToThaMoon : Higher for longer though, so first cut might not come until third-quarter of the year. Hopefully they won’t wait until fourth.
SpyderCallOP ToThaMoon: The goldilocks narrative is real. The economy is in a good spot based on the Fed's dual mandate. Employment is good, and prices have supposedly stopped rising based on YoY figures. So the Fed doesn't need to do anything until that changes. Until employment faulters or the inflation picture changes, then the Fed will likely keep rates where they are. Something needs to break before the Fed needs to make a move in my opinion.
Ryan Caputo SpyderCallOP: Everything is good because people are spending money they don’t have, credit cards and 401k emergency loans are at an all time high, and secretly banks are failing because of forfeit in business real estate. Unemployment by old standards is at 25%. We will see what happens
SpyderCallOP Ryan Caputo: Yea, I don't agree with what the Fed is saying about the economy being so great. Employment numbers are manipulated through immigration. Inflation doesn't seem to be as good as they think, in my opinion. Especially with oil and fuel prices rallying. But I gotta go off what the Fed is saying because the market is mostly reacting accordingly to what the Fed is telling us.