<Semiconductor stocks, footsteps of Cellinmay?! > Decline factors and AI semiconductor demand as seen from TSMC & ASML financial results
Two companies with important positions in the global semiconductor industryRecently, financial results were announced. It is the only company in the world that manufactures cutting-edge exposure measures $ASML Holding(ASML.US$and the world's largest semiconductor contract manufacturing (foundry) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US$ that's it.The financial results announcements of both companies were disgusted, and not only stock prices but also the SOX index(Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index) tooDeclineI did it. However,Risk-aversion movements that were wary of a sharp rise in US 10-year bond yields also encouraged profit-making salesIt seems that they did it.
This timeWhat was mainly disliked about the financial results of both companiesI would like to take a look at it along with the financial results. Also, both companiesConfirmed the outlook for the semiconductor market in general and demand for AI semiconductors shown at the financial results briefingI decided to try it out.
ASML's largest customer(Bloomberg data)TSMCThen, thenSamsung Electronicswith $Intel(INTC.US$ butKey CustomersIt has become. Therefore, there is a tendency for ASML order status to reflect order status from semiconductor giants such as TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Intel. Therefore, new orders are particularly likely to attract attention in ASML's financial results.
ASML will be held on 4/17,New orders received for the January-March periodbecame 3.6 billion euros,61% less than the previous quarterIt was announced that it did.Market expectations4.63 billion euros ofThere was a big decline. I was expecting orders from TSMC in particular due to cutting-edge exposure measures in the market.
About a drastic decrease in ordersThe management team at the financial results briefing、「The order flow tends to be uneven (in the short term) (unstable)If you look at it throughout the year, it's not necessarily uniform,” he explained.
In addition,”If you look at it in the long run、Although major uncertainties due to the macro environment still exist, the bottom of the (semiconductor) cycle seems to have passed。The industry is expected to recover during 2024Doing it. Based on customer dialogues, we expect 2025 to be a strong year, driven by many factors,” he said. Based on management comments, there is a possibility that major customers such as TSMC have extended orders for cutting-edge exposure measures.
Also,It is unclear whether US export restrictions to China had an impact on order acceptance trends. The Dutch government announced a ban on the export of high-performance semiconductor manufacturing equipment against ASML in 2023/6 in response to a request from the United States. It came into effect in September of the same year, and the execution period was 2024/1. There may also be a possibility that some Chinese companies rushed in and increased orders.
Demand for AI semiconductorsRegarding the management team,”Similar to the previous quarter, demand from AI-related applications is gaining momentum. Memory demand is mainly driven by node migration of DRAM technology that supports advanced memories such as DDR5 and HBM.” These memories are rapidly increasing for AI data centers. SK Hynix has the highest market share, but Samsung Electronics in 2nd place and 3rd place which entered late $Micron Technology(MU.US$ Production is also being strengthened.
TSMC'smaximumcustomersIs $Apple(AAPL.US$It is (Bloomberg data). Next, $Qualcomm(QCOM.US$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US$ 、 $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$、 $Broadcom(AVGO.US$ Major semiconductor companies such as are lined up with major customers. Therefore, in the case of TSMC, trends in terminal demand are more reflected, and the company's performance details and forecasts are receiving more attention than ASML.
Furthermore, TSMC announced sales on a monthly basis prior to the announcement of financial results. Sales for March were announced on 4/10. Based on that,Sales for the January-March fiscal year increased 16% from the same period last yearSo,High growth for the first time in about 1 yearIt became. As a result, market expectations were growing for the financial results to be announced on 4/18.
★ Overall good financial results
It was announced on 4/18Net profit for the January-March fiscal year increased 9% compared to the same period last yearPlus,Exceeded market expectations。Sales guidance for the April-6 fiscal yearThe sum is also 19.6 billion to 20.4 billion US dollars,It exceeded the market forecast of 19.1 billion US dollars. On the company side, the companyStrong demand for industry-leading 3- and 5-nanometer technology is expected to partially offset the impact on smartphonesI explained that.
It was announced on 4/18Net profit for the January-March fiscal year increased 9% compared to the same period last yearPlus,Exceeded market expectations。Sales guidance for the April-6 fiscal yearThe sum is also 19.6 billion to 20.4 billion US dollars,It exceeded the market forecast of 19.1 billion US dollars. On the company side, the companyStrong demand for industry-leading 3- and 5-nanometer technology is expected to partially offset the impact on smartphonesI explained that.
★ The point the market was disgusted with
・Full year capital investment plan: TSMC is year-roundThe capital investment plan was left unchanged at 28 billion to 32 billion US dollars. In the market, demand for semiconductors against the backdrop of the generative AI boom and expectations for the semiconductor cycle bottoming out were strong, and it was anticipated that TSMC would raise its capital investment plan.
・Full year capital investment plan: TSMC is year-roundThe capital investment plan was left unchanged at 28 billion to 32 billion US dollars. In the market, demand for semiconductors against the backdrop of the generative AI boom and expectations for the semiconductor cycle bottoming out were strong, and it was anticipated that TSMC would raise its capital investment plan.
・Semiconductor market outlook for 2024: The management team held a financial results briefing on this year's semiconductor market (excluding memory)The growth forecast was slightly revised downward from the previous “just over 10%” to “10%”I did it. It mainly reflects the fact that sales for smartphones, computers, automobiles, etc. are still weak.
★ Demand for AI semiconductors
The management team said at the financial results briefing,”AI-related demand continues to rise rapidlyI'm doing it,” he expressed. At the same time, he emphasized that “TSMC is an important entity in realizing AI applications,” and revealed that “almost all AI innovations are cooperating with TSMC to tackle insatiable AI-related demand for energy-efficient computing power.”
The management team said at the financial results briefing,”AI-related demand continues to rise rapidlyI'm doing it,” he expressed. At the same time, he emphasized that “TSMC is an important entity in realizing AI applications,” and revealed that “almost all AI innovations are cooperating with TSMC to tackle insatiable AI-related demand for energy-efficient computing power.”
Looking at it comprehensively,Financial results briefings for ASML and TSMCFrom then on,The pace of recovery in the semiconductor market for smartphones, computers, and automobiles is slower than expectedOn the other hand,Demand for AI semiconductors continues to be strongIt was shown that it was.
The rise in semiconductor stocks so farIs the one aboveExpectations for a recovery in demand other than AI semiconductors (①）In addition toStrong demand outlook for AI semiconductors (②)It is supported byExpectations for lower US interest rates (③)It also seems to have led to purchases in growth stocks such as semiconductors.
Looking at the financial results of ASML and TSMC alone,abovementionedThere is a possibility that ① will slip backwardsIt was suggested that it had become higher.Coupled with the current decline in ③, semiconductor stocks are likely to be pushed by profit-taking salesThere may also be a possibility that it will look like Cell in May. Meanwhile,The important thing is that ② is healthyIt was shown that it was. Since the generative AI boom is likely to be a long-lived boom as a major technological innovation,Looking at the medium to long term, it is thought that the growth portion of semiconductor companies is largely due to ②. It might be better to take a push-buy stance when making adjustments. Based on the fact that there is a sense of uncertainty about trends in long-term US interest rates at the moment, it seems better to spread the push purchases over time.
Created April 19, 2024 Market Analyst Amelia
Source: Created by Moomoo Securities based on company materials, Bloomberg, and various materials
Source: Created by Moomoo Securities based on company materials, Bloomberg, and various materials
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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exera : Is it dangerous to simply judge that the current stock price is impressive
とっとこいこう : Business performance is improving, so I think semiconductors will continue to grow in the long run.
大負けネコ : Stock price levels have risen drastically since the end of last year due to receding statements during interest rate cuts, rising interest rates on long-term government bonds, geopolitical risks (Israel vs. Iran), etc., so securing profits for the time being would be normal behavior for investment funds or large investors.
It is normal for both ASML and TSM to come up with about one indicator that falls short of market expectations when only the fourth half of the year is cut out.
The management team probably doesn't have such an ultra-short management plan in mind. The question is how to respond to future demand at the end of this year and next year and beyond, so I felt a sense of leeway and confidence in the management team's comments.
As a weak individual investor, I'm just bullish and hold on.
Will we be able to see a slightly different movement until the presidential election in November this year? I think so.
So, even if it's salted, just watch and leave it alone.
We won't buy more, and we won't cut losses.
Iran's counterattack was at the level of a presentational pose, and both the American market and the Japanese market were too upset.
The Biden administration appears to be calmly trying to calm down.
182791546 : Thanks for the accurate report
新div : Next week
The financial results between Tesla and Intel
is there one?
that's scary.
Interest rates are too high
Depends on Friday's PCE.
181338057犬心久美子 : If it's America
or Japan 
, it's an EU V electric machine
️ how many billions ~..., so mass production is not possible and reservation order is awaited. In the Japan-US section, we agreed 
not to export technology because it would be stolen by China ○, but...
I feel like I can master the technology and do it. One device completed with ASML is very expensive
Did you take into account the fact that the financial results weren't good the other day?
ASML was a good day for midday
I wish I could do research and development somehow without relying on the Netherlands
I think so.