What to expect in the week ahead (WMT, TGT, CSCO, DE)

Earnings season continues this week in what will be an action-packed stretch for retail stocks.

On Wednesday, the Census Bureau also reports retail sales data for July. Consumer spending is expected to increase 0.2% month over month. Excluding autos, retail sales are seen as being flat.

The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for August. Consensus estimate is for a 53 reading, slightly less than July's 55. Not only has the index declined every month this year, but July's 12-point drop also was the second steepest in the index's history. Home builders say that affordability, production bottlenecks, and rising inflation are market headwinds.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August. Expectations are for a five reading, six points fewer than in July.

Walmart reports second-quarter fiscal-2023 results. The company's shares fell 11.4% after its previous earnings report in May, when it slashed profit forecasts. It was the largest single-day decline for the stock since October 1987.

The Census Bureau reports new residential data for July. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.53 million new housing starts, about 30,000 fewer than in June. Housing starts have dropped about 10% from the beginning of the year.

The Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its late July monetary-policy meeting. The FOMC raised the federal-funds rate by 75 basis points, to 2.25%-2.5%, at that meeting.

The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for July. Consumer spending is expected to increase 0.2% month over month. Excluding autos, retail sales are seen as being flat. This compares with a 1% jump for both measures in June. The consumer has proved resilient despite four-decade-high inflation, bolstered by a historically strong jobs market.

The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for July. Consensus estimate is for a 0.3% month-over-month decline, after a 0.8% drop in June. "The US LEI declined for a fourth consecutive month, suggesting economic growth is likely to slow further in the near term as recession risks grow," according to Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board.

The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for July. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.85 million homes sold, 270,000 fewer than in June. Existing-home sales have declined for five consecutive months.