Commodities Wavering with Crude
I have a watchlist that I have compiled over time with solid commodity related tickers that are very liquid and easily tradable as they follow trends and technical patterns. Commodities had a rough week last week similar to the previous week. Below are the only commodity related tickers that were green on this list for last week. And the top of the list are inverse leveraged shares for Nat gas and Oil. Oil has been dropping hard the past two weeks as many countries central banks and organizations across the world are calling for slowing growth globally. This is bearish for oil demand as oil is needed in nearly every aspect of GDP growth in one form or another. This could very well be the reason for the falling commodity prices after such a massive rally to these highs.
Its interesting to see that low priced meme stock in the mining sector perform well last week. $Hycroft Mining(HYMC.US$
Many have called for the peak in inflation including many big banks across the world. But some still see inflation rising in many regions. Oil is a big driver in inflation. As you can see in the chart below Crude prices broke out above of a short term price channel hear the recent highs but could not climb high enough. Since then Crude prices have fallen pretty sharply and are resting near some valid support levels. Was the recent peak the top in crude prices? Or will we make new highs?
$SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust(DIA.US$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ $VIX Index Futures(MAY4)(VXmain.US$ $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US$ $Chevron(CVX.US$ $ConocoPhillips(COP.US$ $BP PLC(BP.US$ $Imperial Petroleum(IMPP.US$ $Houston American Energy(HUSA.US$ $Mexco Energy(MXC.US$ $Indonesia Energy(INDO.US$ $Valero Energy(VLO.US$ $Devon Energy(DVN.US$
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SpyderCallOP : do you think it was the peak @iamiam?
iamiam SpyderCallOP: temporary peak yes, you didn't offer that choice
oil will come down to 100 (it hit 108 way faster than I thought, I had to move stocks quickly from work, Monday was a day
) and I expect a good bounce before retesting the wick dip to 94 with candle at 96-98ish. that's when money will support it again. The problem is you can't make oil cheaper they are producing at capacity (certain oil derivatives are becoming scarce *like DEF because they have to produce high demand products mostly gasoline related). so if oil were cheaper it would just pile up at the producers and that's when you end up with oil waste and 7 dollar gasoline. Oil will hit 150. this year? maybe. next year YES. *DEF is a government mandated diesel additive to make your engine environmentally compliant. - no diesel additive no diesel in fuel tanks....
SpyderCallOP iamiam: most forecast haven't budged in their high valuation in the past couple weeks. They are still forecasting higher peaks in oil.
Dons hobby : What are you looking at today Spyder.
I still have about 3500 IMPP
100 RDBX
2000 ANPC
50 BAC
just wondering what your thoughts are bud
71535617 iamiam: FYI - DEF has absolutely nothing to do with the price of oil. It is not an oil derivative, nor is it a diesel additive. It doesn't go into the diesel tanks and never even touches the diesel fuel. It's sprayed on the exhaust gas to convert harmful emissions into harmless nitrogen and water.
It's scarcity has nothing to do with oil or the price of oil. While supplies of DEF may be low, production can be ramped up if necessary fairly easily. DEF is 32.5% urea (which is a fertilizer) and 67.5% deionized water. Oil is not a raw material. Many diesels engines still in use today do not require DEF. Only those made since 2010 in the US require it. But even those newer vehicles can hacked/altered to operate without DEF if absolutely necessary bypassing the sensor, installing a chip or device to trick the vehicle's ECU, its computer, into the thinking the DEF system is running fine with the tank filled, or by removing the whole def system.
71535617 iamiam: Also, if oil was cheaper, it wouldn't pile up at producers and that would not cause $7 gasoline prices. It would cause the price of gasoline to come down. Producers typically sell the oil right away. It's already sold before it comes out of the ground. If it's cheaper, it gets bought faster. Refineries would stock up and simply pay to store it.
SpyderCallOP 71535617: interesting stuff. you can learn a little bit anywhere you look if you are open. will keep this in mind for the future. good insight