On December 16, Longji announced a new round of silicon wafer quotations. The price of 158x166x210 size wafers was lowered to 4.83max 5.03max 5.85 yuan per wafer, which was 0.29pm 0.29max 0.35 yuan per wafer on November 30th, and was lower than the quotation of Central District on December 2-0.27exp 0.03lemp 0.30 yuan per wafer. According to PVInfoLink, the trading price of the single crystal 166 Universe 182 Universe 210 silicon wafer fell 0.15 yuan per wafer this week to 5.0Accordance 4.9 Universe 5.7 yuan per wafer, respectively, and the price of the chip fell 0.15 yuan per wafer.
At present, the main concern for silicon wafer manufacturers is that although the company's profits are increasing and the market share of integrated components is also increasing, the competition pattern of overseas silicon chips is deteriorating, and marginal profits may continue to decline. the two businesses may not resonate upward.
On the contrary, today's power plate continues to pull up until now Green Power concept stocks Huaneng, Jinshan shares, Inner Mongolia Huadian and so on have risen by the daily limit. Does this reveal that the market is starting to pay attention to the downstream operators of new energy?
This paper will analyze the opportunities and related risks that the photovoltaic industry chain should pay attention to in the current post-cycle era.
What is the worst possible situation for the competition pattern of silicon chips?
Judging from the results of the third quarter, the gross profit margin of Central shares and computer numerical Control in the third quarter is more than 20%, and Longji's gross profit margin is about 25%. Assuming that Longji's cost is the same as the tax rate (because of Longji's economies of scale, fees will be lower), Longji's capacity utilization rate is only 70%, while the second-quarter profit is 4 percentage points higher than 90% of second-rate companies.
Tianfeng Securities believes that silicon wafers will lose extra profits when the price of silicon falls for 22 years. In the most pessimistic forecast (that is, the largest wafer does not make money), Longji's net profit per watt will exceed 5 cents (excluding depreciation costs and economies of scale). However, considering that there will still be a shortage of silicon supply in the first half of 22 years, the actual profit for the whole year is expected to be about 7 cents / W. With the transformation of the industry to N-type in 2023 and later, there is room for upward price, and the profit per watt may exceed expectations.
According to this assumption, Lonji's production capacity within 22 years is about 1000GW, then the corresponding funds can support Longji's capacity expansion of 30 GW (the initial investment of a single GW is about 250 million), while other companies need financing to expand capacity, so the cost is higher than Longji. That is to say, after this price war, Longji can rely on the advantage of capital flow to further expand its scale. Account for more than 45% of the market.
Since 2019, Longji has been developing in the direction of integration. by 2019, the proportion of silicon wafer export has reached 75%, and the gross margin of export has reached 44%. We expect that the proportion of the company's silicon wafer export volume will drop to about 30% in 22 years and later. the proportion of gross profit in the company's total gross profit will be reduced to about 15%, and the impact of wafer earnings fluctuations on the company will be smaller and smaller.
New energy operators are about to usher in a revaluation?
The cost reduction in the middle and upper reaches of photovoltaic will directly benefit the downstream green power enterprises. First determine what the new energy operator is. The new energy operator is a power generation enterprise based on wind, water and nuclear power generation. At present, green power operators are divided into two categories according to their corporate attributes, one is state-owned enterprises, the other is private enterprises. Moreover, due to capital constraints, private enterprises like Lin Yang Energy mainly hold photovoltaic power plants, while some private enterprises such as Jiazawa Xinneng hold wind power, but they often resell them because of their heavy assets.
This kind of new energy operator is a bit like a new type of real estate company, which is equivalent to the second-generation model of real estate developers plus self-owned property rent collection. In the process of development, like taking land to build a house, we should first get approval from local supervision departments, and then purchase fans and photovoltaic equipment from equipment vendors. After installation and commissioning, we will begin to sell electricity on our own. The business model is very clear. In fact, new energy operators, like real estate companies, can use financial leverage. But what is even more awesome is that, as a basic energy company, in the age of electrification, such an enterprise is like a money printing machine, not only unable to get back cash, but also playing a big cash flow business, as long as there is a spread, it can play forever.
According to the incomplete statistics of relevant institutions and the contents of the 2020 annual reports of listed companies (here only statistics on the installed scale of photovoltaic), according to the current average installed profit of about 300 million per GW, if given 20 times PE, many power sector stocks such as three Gorges Energy, Zhengtai and Huadian International will have billions to tens of billions of valuations.
For example, Huadian International's current market capitalization of 48.76 billion coincides with the valuation of its photovoltaic power station; Jingneng Clean Energy currently has a market capitalization of 18.88 billion, but its photovoltaic power station is valued at 29.892 billion, which may be on the low side; and solar energy currently has a market capitalization of 30 billion. Photovoltaic power stations are valued at 26.16 billion, with a moderate market capitalization. We can use this method to determine the market capitalization position of individual stocks in the power sector.
Since the beginning of this year, the rising market of the power sector, especially the new energy operators, is extremely related to the scale of its photovoltaic or wind power installation. For example, the listed companies in the table: Zhongguang Nuclear, three Gorges Energy, Huaneng International, Zhengtai Electric, Huadian International, Jingneng Group, Xiexin New Energy, Solar Energy, Datang New Energy, Xinyi Solar, Jingke Technology, Special Electrical Engineering, North Control Clean Energy, Tongwei Stock, Lin Yang Energy, Zhejiang New Energy, China Power Construction, Beijing Express, Jiangshan Holdings, Tianhe Solar Energy, South Grid Energy, Shenzhen Energy, State Investment Power, Yili Jieneng, Shunfeng clean energy, China Resources Power Holdings, Shenneng shares, easy special, Guangzhou development, Shuifa Xingye, Jingao science and technology.
Therefore, investors should pay special attention to the installed scale and future increment of new energy when investing in the concept stocks of new energy operators.