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从巴菲特、段永平的成功案例,看企业家做投资的正确姿势

From the successful cases of Buffett and Duan Yongping, we can see the correct posture of entrepreneurs in making investment.

聰明投資者 ·  Oct 16, 2021 11:46

Source: smart investors

Buffett said: "when investing, think of yourself as a corporate analyst-not a market analyst, a macroeconomic analyst, let alone a securities analyst." "

According to the official website of the Fund Industry Association, Zhejiang Wa Venture Capital Co., Ltd. officially completed the registration of fund managers on July 9.

Behind this private placement is Zong Qinghou, former chairman of Wa Group.

The 76-year-old industrial veteran just obtained the fund qualification certificate in July this year.

In September, Guanzi Private Fund Management (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. completed the registration.

The private equity is wholly owned by Yangshengtang Co., Ltd., and is actually controlled by NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD. founder and 67-year-old China's richest man. According to public information, Zhong Jie served as the chairman of Guanzi Private Equity Fund.

So far, the two major "water armies" in China have successively entered private equity from the industrial circle.

This also means that the two veterans of the water beverage industry, Zhong Fengyi and Zong Qinghou, have met again in the capital market after years of confrontation in the industrial battlefield.

In fact, in recent years, it is not uncommon for outstanding entrepreneurs to make cross-border investments.

'knowing how to be a good investor will make you a better business manager, and vice versa, 'Mr. Munger says.

For investors, it is essential to make investments from the perspective of entrepreneurs and understand the general trend of the development of an industry and the details of the success of the enterprise.

On the contrary, when entrepreneurs come to invest, they not only have profound accumulation in the industry, but also have insight into human nature in management practice, and it is easier to look at the company from the perspective of how to manage successfully and sustainably.

We may be able to find the answer from some extraordinary business managers and investors.

The correct posture for entrepreneurs to invest: Duan Yongping buys Tencent, Apple Inc, Maotai and NetEase, Inc

When entrepreneurs transform into investment, if you look at China, there is nothing more valuable than Duan Yongping.

Boss Duan, who comes from an industrial background, is famous throughout the country for creating two well-known brands, "Xiao Bawang" and "Bubugao".

After 2001, BBK was divided into three parts and set up three companies, two of which founded OPPO and vivo respectively, which are also well-known brands at home and abroad.

It can be said that in doing business, Duan Yongping is successful.

As for investment, NetEase, Inc, Tencent, Apple Inc, Maotai. These successful cases of making a lot of money are also familiar to us.

Duan Yongping once said: I learn from Lao Ba, if I don't touch what I can't figure out, I will certainly miss a lot of good opportunities, but I guarantee that what I seize is right. Investment follows Baoba's logic: first look at the business model and understand how companies make money. Ninety-five percent of people invest in focus in the market, but they don't know how to invest. Make sure focus is in business. The company is supposed to make money.

He has always stressed that it is most important to think independently and focus on the business itself.

He said, "The standard of my investment is very simple, which is to find a company with higher long-term return to hold it within the range that I can understand.

"there are very few companies that I can understand. If I don't understand, of course I have to give up. It is no easier to understand a company than to study as an undergraduate. But,It's not worthwhile to spend a lot of time looking at companies that you don't understand. One of the most important things I learned from Bab is to look at the business model first.Unless you like the company's business model, stop looking down, which will save you a lot of time. "

As for these good companies, which are hard to understand, he will not easily sell them because the price may be a little higher.

Buffett once said: "if you don't want to own a stock for ten years, don't think about owning it for ten minutes." "

And Duan Yongping sees whether a company is expensive or cheap from the perspective of the next 10 years or more.

"I don't know much about valuation. I'm just trying to think about what will happen 10 years from now if my money is invested in a company. If you keep thinking that, you'll probably have the answer. "

"if you think a company is going to die in the future, then everything is expensive now. "

"A few years ago, a company's second largest shareholder talked about whether or not to sell a company and at what price. I said, this company that looks like zero sooner or later, is it a good price to sell at any price?

It's important to try to avoid companies that look like they're going to have a hard time 10 years from now, and it won't hurt you to miss opportunities once in a while. "

"since it's shopping, it always has something to do with the price. The price of anything you buy is also your opportunity cost. Great companies tend not to be expensive in the long run. "

Duan Yongping bought Tencent: he didn't talk to any internal executives.

Just in August this year, when Tencent's share price fell, Duan Yongping said many times on the public platform that he had bought Tencent, and then fell to buy more.

Duan Yongping once said he didn't talk to any internal executives, although he also knew Tencent's executives.

"the criteria for my investment are simple: business model, corporate culture, reasonable price," he said. So when the business model and corporate culture of a good company, the price is also good, I will be interested. "

As for Tencent, his analysis is that, in short, Tencent monetized traffic through the social media he established. It feels that Tencent should still be strong 10 years later, but it will be hard to say in 50 years.

Of course, Duan Yongping also said frankly that his understanding of Tencent is not as good as that of Apple Inc, so the proportion of votes is also much smaller.

But the premise that he voted for Tencent was that he really saw the company's next decade.

In 2019, he made a judgment: "I think there is a good chance that Tencent will earn 2000-300 billion yuan a year in 10-15 years. How much you are willing to pay for this company depends entirely on your own opportunity cost." "

"I think looking back 10 years later, Tencent should have earned more money (as a percentage of the share I bought) than the interest I paid in the bank. "

Duan Yongping's view of Tencent's investment is: although it is true that many of them are financial investments, most of them are quite relevant, and they are probably not investing for diversification. And their investment behavior does not affect their main business, but their main business is often helpful to their investment.

It is also a platform company, Tencent's old rival BABA, Duan Yongping is not optimistic, this is also based on the corporate culture that he has always emphasized.

When I saw the corporate culture of "choosing one out of two" so that there was no difficult business in my world, I decided to sell my stock, he said.

Duan Yongping bought Apple Inc: figure out these two points and buy them.

Duan Yongping is indeed very fond of Tencent, but Apple Inc is the company he invested heavily in.

He said:"every time Apple Inc falls, I always add to it, every time! How could you be in a bad mood when your favorite stock plummeted 10 years later? But it is true that most of the people who bought Apple Inc from me in my early years have been sold. "

Look at Apple Inc this company, Duan Yongping look at the business model, but also look at the management of the company.

When Duan Yongping first saw Apple Inc in 2002 / 03, Duan Yongping skipped it when he specifically said that Jobs was a "time teller" in this series of books.

But he later said: fortunately, I suddenly figured it out in early 2011.Jobs is actually a clock maker who happens to tell the time.And Cook is a better CEO and more rational.

After thinking about these two points, Duan Yongping began to buy.

As for Apple Inc, Duan Yongping said:

"the most powerful thing about Apple Inc is the ecosystem established under Apple Inc's corporate culture, which is a very powerful business model and very difficult to shake. "

"(Apple Inc) the growth of the service is an increase in the total number of users plus a direct increase in user unit consumption and an indirect increase (flow fee). I think it will continue to increase in the future. "

"in the long run, Apple Inc will only earn more money in the future than he does now. I only voted for a company that didn't need to be counted. "

"I recommended Apple Inc to many friends, and everyone said they believed me, but I'm afraid less than 1/10 of them have persisted so far. Maybe it can only show that most people's trust in me is no match for their fear of the market, even if they all know that I still have Apple Inc. "

"A long time ago, a friend of mine sold more than 10, 000 shares (before the split, he had already made a lot of money) Apple Inc bought a house. I said at that time, it's best not to think so, or you will think the house is very expensive. Later, he told me that he didn't understand at that time, and later found that the house was really expensive. "

Duan Yongping thinks about a company in all aspects. He will think about it from all angles around him. He once shared a story:

"many years ago, I saw a $500-per-hour lawyer using a three-generation-old iPhone. I asked him about his use, and he said it was fine, just a little slower. I said, if you spend an extra minute on your cell phone every day, how much will it cost for a year? And then he said, yeah, I have to change it. For many people, time is actually more valuable than money, but few people think about it rationally. "

Duan Yongping buys Maotai: no one dares to touch Maotai's 53-degree flying process.

"in A-shares, I basically only hold Maotai a few years ago, and I always think about what will happen to Maotai 10 years later, so it's easy to hold it, and the return is good. I don't care how much money others make during this period. I only think about my own opportunity cost. "

Buying Maotai is another successful investment case of Duan Yongping.

In Duan Yongping's view, Apple Inc belongs to a company that wants to change, and Maotai belongs to an immutable company.

He likes Apple Inc and Maotai because their business models are very good.

When Lao Gan Ma changed the chili, he said:"it's very important to think clearly when buying Maotai: this kind of thing is much less likely to happen in state-run Maotai than in private enterprises, because probably no one dares to touch Maotai's 53-degree flying process. "

Duan Yongping, who emphasizes corporate culture, believes that the product culture that Maotai formed in Ji Keliang's era is very strong, and its successors dare not change it.

He said: "if Maotai's corporate culture is not good enough, Maotai will not be where it is today." This does not mean that there is nothing wrong with Maotai. A good business model cannot be maintained sooner or later in a company with a bad corporate culture. "

Duan Yongping is very optimistic about Maotai's business model. He once said: "if Maotai can let consumers rest assured to buy absolute real wine, it is extremely cost-effective to invest 10 billion or 800 million yuan." "

In 2017, Duan Yongping said: "Maotai is still Maotai, the business model is just now, and 10 years later people will still say that the price 10 years ago was really not expensive. "

In 2019, he said: "Maotai's business model is very good. Even if you buy at the current price, it should at least be better than putting your money in the bank in 10 years' time. Of course, you may be able to find better opportunities, so it's a matter of opportunity cost. "

"Maotai's future profits are likely to be higher than they are now, and the odds are getting higher and higher. "

When Duan Yongping looks at the business model of the wine industry, he looks at the whole industry chain from the perspective of entrepreneurs.

For example, the reason why he is not optimistic about red wine is that red wine is a particularly personalized product, and it is unable to maintain a high degree of consistency due to the influence of raw materials, so it cannot be produced in large quantities. Wine that can be produced in large quantities may not be called red wine.

When good red wine comes up, people who like to drink red wine tend to drink red wine first. However, good red wine is too expensive and far less affordable than that from Maotai.

He stressed that the quality culture of Maotai is good, which is the reason why Maotai has come to where it is today, thanks to Ji Keliang.

The right posture for investors to be a business: Buffett runs Berkshire

On the contrary, investors should also be proficient in business management. At this point, the most typical is Buffett.

Berkshire itself is a very successful company he runs.

From the first to buy a textile company on the verge of bankruptcy, Buffett, as an entrepreneur, did not hang himself in the textile business, but chose to invest his money in areas where he was more optimistic.

Finally, there is now Berkshire.

There are a few classic cases in Berkshire's growth history.

Shut down Berkshire's textile business

In June 1985, Buffett closed the Berkshire textile mill, ending the century-old business.

In his letter to shareholders that year, Buffett elaborated on the thinking behind the decision, affirming management but also mentioning the problems facing the textile industry:

"the domestic textile industry is facing fierce competition from commercialized products with global overcapacity, and the problems we face are mainly attributed to the competition from foreign countries with low labor costs directly or indirectly. "

"We are faced with a tragic choice. Although a large amount of capital expenditure can enable our textile industry to survive, its relative return on investment is pitifully small. Every time we invest a sum of money, we still have to face strong competition from foreign countries with low costs.

If we don't continue to invest, it will make us even more uncompetitive. Even compared with our domestic counterparts, I always feel like what Woody Ellen described in one of his films:

"more than at any other moment in history, mankind is facing a crossroads of choice, one leading to the abyss of despair and the other to destruction. Please pray that we will have enough intelligence to make the right decision."

It turned out that the closure of the business was not the end of Berkshire, but the beginning of his brilliant journey over the next few decades.

Buffett also learned a valuable lesson-corporate inflection points, when the corporate environment changes fundamentally, they rarely succeed in transformation.

Second, the early cash flow generated by textile mills was enough for Buffett to buy an insurance company, which created a better story.

As an entrepreneur, we should also know how to invest and how resources can be allocated and used more effectively.

It is precisely because Buffett did not continue to invest money in the textile industry, but turned to higher-quality assets, which led to the Berkshire we see today.

Buffett Buy Insurance Company: buy not only two healthy companies, but also tools to manage investments

In March 1967, Berkshire bought two local insurance companies in Omaha, the National compensation Company and the National Fire Marine Insurance Company, for $8.6 million.

This is the beginning of Berkshire's amazing success story.

Sometimes insurance companies are good investments and sometimes they are not. However, they are usually good investment vehicles. Policyholders (insurance company customers) pay premiums and provide continuous cash flow; the insurance company invests with this cash until a customer comes out of danger to file a claim. Due to the uncertain timing of claims, insurance companies invest in liquid securities-mainly short-term fixed-income securities, long-term bonds and stocks.

In this way, Buffett is not only buying two healthy companies, but also tools to manage investments.

In 1967, the two insurers owned a portfolio of $24.7 million in bonds and $7.2 million in stocks. Two years later, the portfolio increased by $42 million, a job well done. Buffett also has experience managing the textile company's portfolio after taking over Berkshire.

When Buffett took over in 1965, the company had a $2.9 million portfolio. A year later, Buffett expanded it to $5.4 million. In 1967, the return on securities investment was three times the profits of the textile sector, while the net worth of the securities sector was only 1% of the net assets of the textile sector.

It is controversial for Buffett to enter the insurance sector and withdraw from the textile industry.

Some people think that the insurance industry, like the textile industry, is an ordinary commodity industry, and the products they sell (insurance policies) have no characteristics. Insurance policies can be standardized and copied by other insurance companies. No trademarks, patents, geographical advantages and so on can make an insurance company different from other companies. It is not difficult to obtain an insurance license, and the insurance rates are public.

The people who can best distinguish an insurance company are its staff. The efforts of the management of the company have a great impact on the operating performance of an insurance company.

Over the years, Buffett has added a series of insurance companies to Berkshire's portfolio, the most famous of which is Gekko Insurance.

In 1991, Berkshire bought a 50% stake in Guaike Insurance. Over the next three years, Gekko's performance was impressive and continued to climb, adding to Buffett's interest.

In 1994, Berkshire announced that it had a 51% stake in Gekco Insurance and seriously discussed the issue of Geke joining the Berkshire family.

Two years later, Buffett wrote a check for $2.3 billion, and Gekco Insurance became a wholly owned company of Berkshire.

Buffett didn't stop there. In 1998, he bought General re, a reinsurer, for $16 billion. This is the largest investment so far.

Buffett continues to buy insurance companies year after year, but there is no doubt that his smartest is the acquisition of talent.

Buffett asked Ajit to run Berkshire's reinsurance group. Ajit was born in 1951 and graduated from the prestigious Indian Institute of Technology with an engineering degree. After three years at IBM, he went to Harvard to earn a business degree.

Although Ajit had no background in the insurance industry, Buffett quickly discovered his amazing talent. Since 1985, the reinsurance group set up by Ajit over the past 20 years has a float of $34 billion (premium income has not yet been paid).

According to Buffett, Ajit has "unparalleled control of risk. He operates with a combination of ability, speed and decisiveness, but most importantly, his unique mind in insurance." "they communicate with each other every day.

How important is Ajit? Buffett wrote in Berkshire's 2009 annual report: "if Munger, Ajit and I are in the same shipwreck, you can only save one person, please swim to Ajit." "

Invest in Buffalo Evening News: be tough and endure the opponent to death

Buffett is a man with a media complex. He once said:"A leading newspaper has excellent economic value and is one of the best in the world. "

Buffett believes that with a newspaper, he can collect royalties from every company in the city that wants to advertise.

In addition to the quality of news, newspapers also have valuable goodwill. As Buffett points out, newspapers have a low need for capital, which makes it easy for them to turn sales into profits.

In 1977, Buffett bought the Buffalo Evening News for $32.5 million.

Blue-collar workers in Buffalo get up early and don't have time to read newspapers until the afternoon. Evening newspapers are doing brisk business, while rival Buffalo Messenger KuaiBao, which earns twice as much as its rivals and 75 per cent more from advertising, relies mainly on the Sunday edition to make a living.

Buffett believes that there will be only one company left in the end of the competition, and the evening paper has a good chance of winning.

After Buffett joined the Buffalo Evening News, he said that without the Sunday edition, the Evening News might eventually lose its competitive edge and be in decline. And insisted on issuing the Sunday edition, and therefore engaged in an extended and lasting war with Messenger KuaiBao.

Messenger KuaiBao filed a lawsuit against the Evening News, accusing it of violating the Sherman Antitrust Act. in the end, the judge ruled that the Evening News could be published on Sunday, but it strictly limited its promotion, marketing and business ability to target readers and advertisers. This basically limits the room for the Evening News to develop its Sunday edition, which is still firmly controlled by Messenger KuaiBao.

Over the next five years, the two companies competed fiercely: competing for customers to compete for costs and prices.

In 1978, the Evening News lost $2.9 million before tax, the last year Buffett lost, but he was optimistic.

The good news came in 1979, when the Federal Court of Appeals in New York overturned the Evening News's injunction and charges of contempt of court.

But the problem of losses persists, with a total loss of $12 million before taxes since Buffett bought it in early 1982, which even Munger sees as a bottomless pit that cannot be filled.

In a later interview, Munger looked back on the days when he bought the Buffalo News and said:

"We are still not the weakest local newspaper, we are betting that we will be survivors. We are indeed the last ones to survive. It was a difficult experience, and I didn't see any benefits for a long time. When our opponent finally kicked his legs, we suddenly began to make a lot of money. This is delayed gratification. There was no profit for seven years, the opponent died, and gold began to fall from the sky. Our profit jumped from nothing to $70 million before tax. "

In September 1982, his opponent finally lost his support, and Buffett finally won the largest share of newspapers in the same city.

At that time, Buffalo also got its hands on the morning paper market from evening and weekly newspapers. And on the day competitors closed, Buffalo Evening changed its name to Buffalo News.

In the first year without competitors, pre-tax profits were as high as $19 million, and by the late 1980s, they made an average annual profit of $40 million.

We all know Buffett's experience of delivering newspapers when he was young. To some extent, Buffett's ability to hold on for so long and finally "endure the death" of his opponent may be due to his deep understanding and persistence of the media industry.

Buffett said:When investing, think of yourself as a corporate analyst-not a market analyst, not a macroeconomic analyst, let alone a securities analyst. "

For entrepreneurs, it may be the right posture to look at a company and invest in a company around what they are good at.

Edit / lydia

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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