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越南上百万工人逃离工厂!iPhone 13供应或受影响?

Millions of Vietnamese workers have fled the factory! Will the supply of iPhone 13 be affected?

券商中國 ·  Oct 11, 2021 19:07

Source: Securities firm China

Author: Wang Yunpeng


It is reported that as the Vietnamese government lifted the epidemic prevention measures in Ho Chi Minh and the surrounding area, workers began to flee the industrial zone in the south where COVID-19 was hard-hit and return to the countryside. The Vietnamese government estimates that more than 2 million people may have left.

The industrial zone in southern Vietnam is the hardest hit by the epidemic in the country, where there has been a wave of workers returning home. With the recent relaxation of months-long travel restrictions for workers, millions of people are preparing to join the homecoming team.

The epidemic is raging, and millions of Vietnamese workers flee the factory.

Production of winter clothing is at its peak, but factories in Vietnam are severely underemployed, and companies with staff shortages are begging employees to go back to work. But even if the government provides round-trip transportation and companies raise wages and benefits, workers' return to work has had little effect.

It is reported that as the Vietnamese government lifted the epidemic prevention measures in Ho Chi Minh and the surrounding area, workers began to flee the industrial zone in the south where COVID-19 was hard-hit and return to the countryside. The Vietnamese government estimates that more than 2 million people may have left. The labor shortage has further exacerbated the crisis in Vietnamese factories and even the global supply chain.

Take Baocheng Group, the world's largest maker of sports shoes, as an example. On October 6, the company announced that it would resume work in Vietnam, but more than 40,000 workers did not return to work, with a rework rate of less than 30%. Labor shortages frustrated Baocheng's goal of returning to 100% normal by mid-November.

American manufacturing giants are in a hurry as the supply chain is disrupted by the epidemic. As early as mid-August, more than 80 US clothing and footwear companies, including Nike Inc and GAP, jointly wrote to Biden asking the United States to speed up vaccine donation to Vietnam.

The fourth round of the epidemic in Vietnam is fierce, and the number of confirmed cases in Vietnam has reached about 840000 in just a few months. However, the latest epidemic in Vietnam has eased somewhat, with 3513 new local COVID-19 confirmed cases in Vietnam on the 10th, the lowest daily increase since July 17. According to media reports, Vietnam will start vaccinating children against COVID-19 at the end of October.

The global industrial chain has been hit hard again.

Small as it is, Vietnam plays an important role in the global consumer economy, from Walmart Inc's furniture to Adidas sneakers to Samsung Electronics smartphones. At present, Vietnam has become the second largest supplier of clothing and footwear to the United States, after China.

It is understood that about 3/4 of Nike Inc's shoes are made in Southeast Asian countries and 51 per cent are made in Vietnam. As the epidemic in COVID-19 in Vietnam continues to be severe, a large number of factories were forcibly closed between July and September, resulting in 10 weeks of production loss for Nike Inc. At present, half of Nike Inc's clothing factories in Vietnam have been closed, executives said on a conference call.

Nike Inc recently reported revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter ended Aug. 31, up 16% over the same period, roughly the same as the previous quarter. The performance fell short of Wall Street analysts' expectations of $12.47 billion. Nike Inc executives said consumer demand for the company's products remained strong and that the company's first-quarter sales would have been higher had it not been for supply chain disruptions. They warned that production disruptions in Vietnam and Indonesia would hurt the company's short-term prospects. Affected by the news, Nike Inc's share price plummeted by more than 6 per cent after the announcement of the financial results.

Matthew Friend, chief financial officer of Nike Inc, said on a conference call: "We are not immune from the disadvantages of the global supply chain. He said that due to the surge in COVID-19 cases and the blockade imposed by Vietnam, the company lost 10 weeks of production time in Vietnam and took an average of 80 days to transfer products from Asia to North America, twice as much as before the outbreak.

Camilo Camilo Lyon, an analyst at BTIG, a US securities firm, said: "Vietnamese factories are full of uncertainty. Lyon estimates that Nike Inc alone has reduced the supply of 180 million pairs of shoes, and Nike Inc recently lowered his sales forecast, mainly because Vietnamese suppliers stopped production.

Apple Inc's supply of "13 incense" is also affected.

In addition to sneakers and clothes, factory shutdowns may also affect technology companies such as Apple Inc. The closure of parts suppliers could also cause Apple Inc to suffer delivery disruptions for iPhone 13, analysts said.

According to previous reports, the disruption was mainly related to the limited supply of camera modules for four iPhone 13 models, as a large number of parts were assembled in Vietnam.

Some analysts said that tight supply chains and strong demand are causing Apple Inc iPhone 13 to become the product line with the longest waiting time for users in recent years. It is reported that the waiting time for iPhone 13 Pro 512 GB Yuanfeng Blue in China is as long as five weeks, while the waiting time for the same model is also five weeks in Japan and four weeks in the United States.

However, although the epidemic is raging, the industrial chain has been hit so hard that Vietnam's GDP growth rate has fallen to a 21-year low in the first three quarters. But the Vietnamese stock market is still buoyant. Recently, Vietnam's VNINDEX index has risen six times in a row, rising 1.56% on Oct. 11, just short of the all-time high set in July.

Edit / Jeffy

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