技术层面，金价昨日震荡收线，反弹动力稍稍减弱，有反弹见顶的形态隐现，但整体仍维持回升趋势。下方众多均线多头排列，支撑点逐步上移，显示买盘支撑强大。布林带也倾向向上发展，前景仍趋于看涨。短线就算有回落调整，回落幅度也相当有限。日内关注的点位：下方关注2440美元附近支撑，以及2433美元附近支撑，更大支撑点在2400美元整数关口。上方关注2458美元附近阻力，以及2469美元附近阻力。晚间密切留意美国非农数据情况带来的市场影响。On Thursday (August 1), the price of gold initially continued to rise, reaching a high of $2,462.08 since July 18th, and slightly fell back during the closing stage, closing at $2,445.41 per ounce.
Ahead of the release of US non-farm payroll data on Friday, caution prevailed in gold trading and slight profit-taking adjustments were made. On the fundamental side, this week's Fed decision kept interest rates unchanged, but its statement and Powell's speech raised the possibility of a rate cut in September, combined with the safe-haven support of the Middle East geopolitical situation, leading to a continuous rebound in gold prices. Although the rebound momentum slowed down on Thursday, the continuous decline in the US 10-year treasury notes yield indicates that interest rate cuts are imminent. The overall ADP and initial jobless claims data released showed that the labor market tension eased, and the previously released inflation data was optimistic about the prospect of the inflation rate approaching the Fed's target level of 2%. Therefore, the market remains confident that a rate cut by the Fed in September is imminent. Even if non-farm payroll data on Friday evening is slightly better than expected or the previous value, the pressure on gold prices is limited, and the optimistic outlook for declining inflation will continue to provide more bullish momentum for gold prices. If non-farm payroll data growth is weaker than expected, it will further boost gold prices. In short, the main trend of interest rate cuts will dominate the direction of gold prices for a period of time. Therefore, any retracements or consolidation adjustments will create entry opportunities for bullish gold.
Source: E-huitong
On a technical level, the price of gold oscillated and closed slightly weaker yesterday, with signs of a rebound topping out, but still maintaining an upward trend overall. Many bullish moving averages are arranged below, with support levels gradually increasing, indicating strong buying support. The Bollinger Bands also tend to develop upwards, and the outlook remains bullish. Even if there is a short-term retracement, the degree of retracement is quite limited. The key levels to watch for during the day are the support levels near $2440 and $2433, and the major support point at the integer mark of $2400. The resistance levels to watch for are near $2458 and $2469. Pay close attention to the market impact of US non-farm payroll data in the evening.
Wang Gang, Bank of China Guangdong Branch
For personal views only, not representative of the views of the organization.