Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. Freeport-McMoRan delivered a significant beat with revenue hitting US$6.3b and statutory EPS reaching US$0.32, both beating estimates by more than 10%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Freeport-McMoRan after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Freeport-McMoRan's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$25.0b in 2024. This reflects a satisfactory 5.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 36% to US$1.56. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$24.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.63 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a a satisfactory to revenue, the consensus also made a small dip in its earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$50.77, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Freeport-McMoRan, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$60.00 and the most bearish at US$39.20 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Freeport-McMoRan's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.9% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Freeport-McMoRan is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$50.77, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Freeport-McMoRan analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Freeport-McMoRan , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.