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华创证券:3月电商GMV增长21% 货架电商低价竞争 用户活跃度提升

Huachuang Securities: E-commerce GMV increased 21% in March, e-commerce competition at low prices, increased user activity

Zhitong Finance ·  Apr 16 18:57

According to data from Yinma Digital Research, the five major e-commerce platforms summed up a year-on-year growth rate of 21% in March '24, and the aggregated GMV growth rate for the 1st quarter of '24 was 19% year-on-year.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that according to data from Yinma Digital Research, the five major e-commerce platforms had a combined GMV growth rate of 21% year-on-year in March '24, and the consolidated GMV growth rate for the 1st quarter of '24 was 19% year-on-year. The year-on-year GMV growth rate of the major platforms in March was Ali (09988) Taotian +14% /JD (09618) +29% /Pinduoduo (PDD.US) +13% /Douyin +50% /Kuaishou (01024) +36%. Douyin Store and third-party platforms combined +46%. Huachuang Securities believes that because the data calculation method mainly relies on the number of pages opened, conversion rate* price calculation. Combined with user usage time, Ali and JD clearly showed a year-on-year increase in the number of pages opened, but the conversion rate and price were affected by low price competition. Compared to a slight decline.

The main views of Huacheng Securities are as follows:

Platform GMV:

The consolidated e-commerce GMV growth rate in March was +21%, and the first quarter was +19%: According to data from Yinma Digital Research (same below), the five major e-commerce platforms had a year-on-year growth rate of 21%, and the consolidated GMV growth rate for the first quarter of '24 was 19%. The year-on-year GMV growth rate of the major platforms in March was Alibaba Taotian +14% /JD +29% /Douyin +50% /Kuaishou +36%, and Douyin Store and third-party platforms combined. The bank believes that because the data calculation method mainly relies on the number of pages opened, conversion rate* price calculation, combined with user usage time, the bank believes that the number of pages opened by Ali and JD increased significantly year-on-year. However, the bank believes that due to competition at low prices, the conversion rate and price may have declined somewhat compared to previous years.

The year-on-year GMV growth rate of major e-commerce platforms in the 1st quarter of '24: Alibaba Taotian +15% /JD +29% /Pinduoduo +21% /Douyin +45% /Kuaishou +38%.

Active users: Low-cost competition in shelf e-commerce has led to significant increases in MAU and usage time. According to Yiguan Qianfan data, MAU of major platforms in February/March '24: Taobao (February 880 million/March 910 million) /JD (February 410 million/March 450 million) /Pinduoduo (February 620 million/March 690 million) /Douyin (February 860 million/March 850 million) /Xiaohongshu (February 210 million/March 200 million), March MAU Taobao +10% /JD +13% /Pinduoduo +8% /Douyin +14%/Xiaohongshu +0.2%; corresponding platform active users The average usage time was +25% compared to Taobao +25%, JD +9%, Pinduoduo +10%, Douyin -10%, Kuaishou -1.7%, and Xiaohongshu +8.2%, respectively. The bank believes that all major e-commerce platforms increased the supply and exposure of low-priced products in the first quarter, which led to an increase in MAU and an increase in usage time. Driven by low price strategies and subsidies, in particular, the MAU of Taobao and JD users showed high year-on-year growth. The growth of users of the short video platform Xiaohongshu showed a slow trend for the past 10 months, but the length of time users used it increased.

The steady growth rate online is still higher than offline. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, physical online retail sales in January-March '24 were 2.8 trillion yuan, compared to +11.6% (vs. social zero +4.7%), and online physical goods accounted for 26.20% (-0.8pct compared to the same period last year) and 29.3% (-1.0pct compared to the same period last year), respectively. The bank believes or involves base adjustments. The overall online share should still increase. Using the adjusted base figure, online physical goods accounted for +1.79pct compared to the same period last year, and online physical goods accounted for +1.79pct compared to the same period last year. Aftermarket retail +1.97pct compared to the same period last year.

Market share ratio: According to Yinma Numerical Research, GMV market share was calculated in March '24:44.5% for Alibaba Taotian, 19.4% for JD, 20.1% for Pinduoduo, 9.1% for Douyin, 6.9% for Kuaishou, and 11.4% in terms of the turnover of Douyin Store+third-party platforms. On a month-on-month basis, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Kuaishou are still increasing their market share.

The average customer unit price fell sharply. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics and the Post Office, the average unit price of packages across the network from January to February '24 was 78.3 yuan/piece, down 28 yuan/piece from the same period last year. Mainly affected by the increase in the share of Pinduoduo and Doukuai low unit price platforms. According to data from Yinma Data Research, Aotan and JD both increased unit prices. In the first quarter, Aotan was +8.4% compared to the same period, and JD was +12% compared to the same period.

Category GMV:

The performance of accessories, jewelry, beauty and personal care was strong in the 1st quarter of '24. Combining the five major platforms, accessories and jewelry +44% /beauty and personal care +32% /clothing, shoes and bags +22% in March, the growth rate of the four major travel-related categories was impressive, digital appliances +8% /daily 100 +8% /food and drink +4% (including fresh food +6%) /home improvement -6%.

By platform, Alitaotian (clothing and bags +38% /beauty and personal care +14%) /JD (food and drink +65% /outdoor sports +59% /beauty and personal care +48%) /Pinduoduo (accessories and jewelry +46% /clothing and bags +13%) /Douyin (beauty and personal care +109%) /Kuaishou (accessories and jewelry +75% /home improvement +72%).

According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, in the online retail sales of physical goods in January-March, the cumulative year-on-year ratio for food, clothing, and consumer goods was +21.1%/+9.7%, and the growth rate of food, clothing, and use categories all increased month-on-month.

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