The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guangfa Securities released a research report saying that in the past 24 years, under the impetus of the peak consumption season during the Spring Festival, advertisers' confidence in advertising has picked up, and marketing efforts have increased. According to CTR, all-media publication spending increased 7.5% year on year in January-February. Among them, January increased 3.7% year on year and February increased 12.3% year on year. In 24Q1, the trend of consumption recovery was positive, and the general marketing market also showed a steady recovery trend. It is expected that it will continue to recover in 24 years along with macroeconomic and consumption recovery. Looking at the advertiser industry, FMCG advertiser sales are steady, and the popularity of consumption during the Spring Festival has driven a sharp year-on-year increase in sales in categories such as alcoholic beverages, entertainment and leisure, and commercial and service industries. With the recovery in macroeconomics and consumer sentiment, the advertising and marketing industry ushered in a further rebound, and there is room for repair in various segments.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

Along with macroeconomic and consumer recovery, the advertising market may recover more steadily

Looking at the media, the recovery of online internet advertising is even more obvious. Short video & e-commerce advertisements are growing, and attention is being paid to internet platforms that have their own alpha. According to QuestMobile, the Internet advertising market for the full year of '23 was 714.61 billion yuan, up 7.6% year on year, and is expected to increase by more than 10% year on year to 788.36 billion yuan in '24. The growth rate of the Internet advertising market is higher than that of the general market. Short video and e-commerce advertising are expected to continue the good growth trend, and pay attention to the growth of advertising revenue on platforms such as Tencent and Doukuei.

Offline advertising: the recovery trend of ladders is clear, and FMCG is still the driving force for growth

The growth of leading ladders is more resilient, and 24Q1 is expected to see greater resilience in recovery, driven by the peak consumption season. As the leader of the ladder media, Focus Media has performed well for advertisers during the Spring Festival. The Q1 performance is expected to recover from last year's low base. Fanzhu has established an FMCG-centered advertiser structure. On the one hand, the leading FMCG advertisers are running steadily, and on the other hand, it continues to expand the segmentation circuit and advertisers for new consumer brands, bringing in growth. As consumption recovers, performance flexibility is expected to be further unleashed.

AI marketing tools for marketing companies have been launched one after another, focusing on the pace of product iteration and commercialization progress in 24 years

According to the official accounts of various companies, EasyDianworld launched KreadoAI, an AI marketing product for small and medium-sized advertisers. The blue cursor released BlueAI and continued iterative optimization. The trio cooperated with iFLYTEK to launch an “AI” for multi-modal AI products in the marketing field, and Insight Group launched InsightGPT. According to Interactive Easy, the mass media marketing vertical model has been deployed, and continued to be fine-tuned and iterated to better empower advertisers.

Investment advice:

The marketing market will usher in a further rebound as macroeconomics and consumer sentiment recovers, and there is room for repair in various segments. The recovery of leading media is more resilient. Online advertising focuses on leading internet platforms: Tencent Holdings (00700), Kuaishou (01024), iQiyi (IQ.US), Bilibili (09626), etc.

Demand for brand advertising may see a clear recovery, increase the marketing budget for offline advertising media platforms such as Ladder Media, and focus on the performance elasticity of FanZhong Media (002027.SZ) (the leader in high-speed rail advertising) and Zhaoxun Media (301102.SZ) (leading high-speed rail advertising).

At the same time, pay attention to the pace of implementation and commercialization of AI marketing tools from digital marketing service providers such as EasyPoint World (301171.SZ), Blue Cursor (300058.SZ), and Threesomes (605168.SH).

Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; competition in the advertising market intensifies; repayments fall short of expectations.