The Zhitong Finance App learned that on April 10, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the results of the “Auto Dealer Inventory” survey for March 2024: the comprehensive inventory coefficient for car dealers in March was 1.56, down 10.3% from the previous month and 12.4% year on year. The inventory level was above the warning line, and dealer inventory pressure declined.

Inventory coefficient declined year-on-year and month-on-month in January and March

After the holiday season, major car companies set off a wave of price cuts and introduced various forms of car purchase discounts one after another, such as direct price cuts, replacement subsidies, and insurance subsidies. The first half of March was affected by the Spring Festival effect, and dealers' sales performance was slightly lackluster. However, after entering the second half of the month, dealers used favorable factors such as spring auto shows and new car launches to effectively stimulate the vitality of the consumer market in order to sprint to sales targets for the first quarter, and terminal sales were able to grow rapidly. Since prices in the car market fluctuate greatly, and consumers have high expectations for the trade-in subsidy policy that is expected to be introduced later, some consumers have strong wait-and-see feelings. As a result, sales in March improved markedly compared to the previous month, but they still did not reach the expected level.

According to comprehensive estimates, passenger car terminals sold about 1.6 million units in March, and the total inventory of dealers is estimated to be around 2.5 million units. As each manufacturer's annual goals and business policies gradually became clear, dealers entered the inventory replenishment cycle by the second quarter.

2. Decrease in inventory factors for high-end luxury, imported, joint ventures, and independent brands

The inventory coefficient for high-end luxury & imported brands was 1.23, down 21.7% from the previous month; the inventory coefficient for joint venture brands was 1.90, down 7.8% from the previous month; the inventory coefficient for independent brands was 1.49, down 8.0% from the previous month.

The brand with the highest inventory depth in March and March

According to the survey, 15 brands had an inventory factor of more than 2 months in March. Among them, the three brands with the highest inventory depth are SAIC-GM Chevrolet, Pentium, and Chery.

4. Carefully anticipate market demand in April 2024 and reasonably control inventory

The weather warmed up in April, car shows started all over the world, and new cars were launched one after another, which had a certain stimulating effect on the car market. However, in some regions, the agricultural season has also been affected by Ching Ming Festival customs and holidays. Consumer travel activities have increased. Coupled with expectations for trade-in support policies, demand for car purchases has been delayed to a certain extent. In summary, dealers' store traffic, orders, and sales will be impacted to a certain extent, and the driving force for car purchase demand in April will be insufficient. As the May Day holiday approaches and the effects of the Beijing Auto Show, car consumption is expected to increase in May.

The China Automobile Dealers Association suggests that according to the actual situation, dealers should rationally estimate actual market demand and reasonably control inventory levels to prevent excessive inventory pressure, leading to operating risks.