The Zhitong Finance App learned that global aviation giants Boeing (Boeing) and Airbus (Airbus) have continued to ferment. Due to a sharp drop in aircraft deliveries, the global aviation industry is facing a potential dilemma where capacity may be seriously insufficient during the peak travel season this summer. Global travel demand is expected to far exceed pre-COVID-19 levels. According to information, airlines around the world are spending billions of dollars to repair old and fuel-inefficient airliners and pay extra fees to obtain planes from lessors. But some airlines are still being forced to cut their schedules drastically to cope with the extreme shortage of available aircraft.

Meanwhile, according to forecast data, the number of travelers worldwide will reach an all-time high. It is estimated that 4.7 billion people will travel in 2024, compared to about 4.5 billion in 2019.

John Grant (John Grant), a senior analyst at travel data company OAG, said: “We can expect strong airline performance throughout the summer, and ticket prices for some popular routes may be particularly high.”

In December of last year, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicted that global airline capacity would grow at a rate of 9% per year this year. Following Boeing's security crisis, this expectation seemed too optimistic.

Martha Neubauer (Martha Neubauer), senior assistant at AeroDynamic Advisory, said passenger airlines will receive about 19% less aircraft this year than expected due to passenger capacity issues between Boeing and Airbus.

Neubauer explained that since several airlines are too dependent on the supply scale of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, American Airlines will receive about 32% fewer aircraft than planned a year ago. Boeing's aircraft production scale was strictly limited after the January aerial panel explosion.

Boeing can currently be described as struggling from the large-scale crisis that broke out after the Alaska Airlines (Alaska Airlines) bombing on January 5. US aviation regulators have set strict caps on 737 MAX production and set extremely strict scrutiny standards, but the company hasn't even reached this level.

Airbus's airliner production capacity is also not promising. Raytheon Technology (RTX) said last year that as many as 650 Airbus A320neo aircraft may be grounded and inspected in the first half of 2024 to deal with defects in Pratt & Whitney engines owned by RTX.US (RTX.US).

In Europe, the low-cost airline Ryanair (Ryanair) has cut some passenger routes. In the US, United Airlines (UAL.US) and Southwest Airlines (LUV.US) have drastically reduced the number of flights and adjusted recruitment and staffing plans.

The aircraft leasing market is booming

Analysts generally expect that air capacity growth in the second quarter of most US airlines will be far lower than the same period last year. Airlines will update their growth plans when they publish quarterly reports and explain how capacity restrictions will be offset. On Wednesday, American airline Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) will be the first to release financial data for the first quarter.

As the shortage of new aircraft continues to ferment, the aircraft leasing market can be described as booming. Cirium Ascend Consulting's statistics show that the latest Airbus A320-200neo and Boeing 737-8max aircraft leases have reached $400,000 per month, the highest level since mid-2008.

John Heimlich (John Heimlich), A4A chief economist representing major US airlines, emphasized that airline spending on aircraft leasing has increased significantly by about 30% compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic. Heimlich said they still have aircraft that have reached the end of their economic useful life, and these aircraft now require extensive maintenance work for several months. United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and American Airlines saw a 40% increase in maintenance costs last year compared to 2019.

Heimlich said that despite strong demand, increases in leasing, maintenance and labor costs will have a significant impact on profits. American Passenger Airlines' pre-tax profit margin was around 4.5% last year, with most of the contributions coming from Delta and United Airlines.

According to a survey data from the travel website Vacationer, as inflation continues, Americans planning to travel by air this summer may have decreased compared to last year's huge scale; although the data shows a year-on-year decline in air ticket prices, the trend has continued to rise from month to month.