The new energy transformation of traditional OEMs has also basically been completed, and the new power sub-brands they have incubated have initial brand effects, such as Geely JiKrypton, Changan Avita, and Dongfeng Rantu, all of which have strong parent company support and great potential for future development.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that in January-March, Zheshang Securities released a research report saying that in January-March, the first tier of new forces represented by questioning the world and ideals gradually widened the gap with the rest of the competitors, and quarterly sales hit the 80,000 mark. Zero Run, Extreme Krypton, and NIO occupy the second tier of sales, and quarterly sales remained stable in the 30,000 level range. Looking at the current point in time, Quanjie and Ideal have opened a big gap in sales with other new power brands, and their user profile is clear, user loyalty is high, and stickiness is strong, so the certainty of their subsequent development is high. On the other side, the new energy transformation of traditional OEMs has also basically been completed, and the new power sub-brands they have incubated have initial brand effects, such as Geely JiKrypton, Changan Avita, and Dongfeng Rantu, all of which have strong parent company support and great potential for future development.
Related targets: Recommended Changan Automobile (000625.SZ), Tuopu Group (601689.SH), iKodi (600933.SH), Fuyao Glass (600660.SH), Junsheng Electronics (), Huayang Group (002906.SZ), Bethel (USD), Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ), Baolong Technology (). 600699.SH 603596.SH 603197.SH
The views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:
Passenger cars: steady recovery, solid foundation
Overall, there was a steady recovery in January-March, and exports continued to grow. Domestic passenger car production reached 3.256 million units in January-January 2024, +8.2% compared with January-January last year; achieved wholesale sales volume of 3.392 million units, +10.7% compared with January-January last year, and achieved retail sales of 3.38 million units, +17.0% compared with January-January last year. From March 1 to 31, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 2.165 million vehicles, +9% year-on-year, +66%; since this year, a total of 5.565 million vehicles have been sold, +10% year-on-year. From March 1 to 31, the passenger car market retailed 1.699 million units, +7% year over year, +54% month on month; a cumulative total of 4.841 million units have been sold since this year, +13% year over year. A steady upward trend was achieved in the first quarter of 2024.
The share of plug-in hybrid models in new energy vehicles continues to rise
From March 1 to 31, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 819,000 new energy vehicles, up 33% year on year and up 83% month on month. Since this year, they have sold a total of 1.956 million vehicles, an increase of 31% year on year. It is worth noting that the penetration rate of plug-in hybrid models, including extended range, is steadily increasing. In February 2024, hybrid models accounted for 43.04% of NEV sales, an increase of 10.12 pct over the same period last year. Zheshang Securities believes that at a time when the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is already high, the continued expansion of new energy vehicles requires the support of the target customer base in the sinking market. Considering usage scenarios and user acceptance, plug-in hybrid models are expected to be favored by more customers in the sinking market, and plug-in hybrid models are expected to further increase in the share of new energy vehicles.
From January to February 2024, the top ten manufacturers in terms of sales volume were BYD, Changan Automobile, Geely Automobile, FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen, Chery Automobile, GAC Toyota, SAIC-GM-Wuling, BMW Brilliance, and Dongfeng Nissan. The top ten manufacturers together accounted for 61.0% of total passenger car retail sales.
Specifically, BYD sold 325,700 vehicles, +2.9% YoY, Changan Auto sold 2811,000 units, +33.9%; Geely sold 274,300 units, +54.9% YoY; FAW-Volkswagen sold 254,700 units, +14.7% YoY; SAIC Volkswagen sold 178,400 units, +15.4%; Chery sold 164,400 units, +104.5% YoY; GAC Toyota sold 115,000 units, -10.1% YoY, SAIC-GM-GM-11.23 10,000 vehicles, same ratio +10.6%, BMW Brilliance sold 108,500 units, +2.2% year over year, and Dongfeng Nissan sold 101,100 units, -1.3% year over year. Changan, Geely, and Chery grew rapidly year-on-year in January-January this year. Japanese GAC Toyota and Dongfeng Nissan declined, and German Volkswagen and BMW were relatively stable.
Risk warning:
1) If macroeconomic pressure is under pressure, automobile sales may fall short of expectations, leading to increased competition in the industry; 2) Vehicle price reduction promotions are common, which may transfer price reduction pressure to industrial chain parts companies; 3) Going overseas to build a factory in Mexico may have business risks and political risks of inadequate industrial chain support.