Haitong International expects the net profit of Mengniu Dairy (02319) to be 5.42 billion, 6.22 billion yuan and 6.75 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Haitong International released a research report stating that it maintains Mengniu Dairy (02319)'s “superior to the market” rating. Operating revenue from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 101.49 billion yuan, 105.53 billion yuan and 109.6 billion yuan, up 2.9% year on year; net profit is 5.42 billion yuan, 6.220 billion yuan and 6.75 billion yuan, up 12.7%, 14.7% and 8.6% year on year; the profit forecast per share is 1.38 yuan, 1.58 yuan and 1.72 yuan respectively, and the target price was lowered from HK$41.5 to 29.8 HKD.
According to the report, Mengniu's net profit margin was 4.9% last year, down 85 basis points from the previous year. Net profit fluctuations were mainly due to non-recurring profit and loss drag down, including the depreciation of Dabaofen by 320 million yuan (same below), an increase of 36% over the previous year. This category is expected to decline quarterly this year. Revenue from the sale of subsidiaries decreased by nearly 300 million yuan year on year, and net fair value income from payable bonds decreased by nearly 100 million yuan year on year. The 2022 base is slightly higher. In 2022, there was 860 million yuan of fair value earnings on financial debt related to changes in the stock price of 600882.SH (), but there was also 740 million yuan in goodwill impairment.