The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to preliminary data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in March 2024, China's heavy truck market sold about 106,000 vehicles (invoicing caliber, including exports and new energy), up 77% from February, slightly down 8% from 115,000 vehicles in the same period last year, with a net decrease of about 9,000 vehicles.

Looking at 106,000 units in the last eight years, it is only higher than March 2022 (76,800 units), which is relatively close to the sales levels of March 2017 (114,600 units) and March 2023 (115,000 units). However, despite a slight year-on-year decline, the sales performance of 106,000 vehicles can also be said to be quite difficult in the current bleak freight environment.

Cumulatively, from January to March 2024, China's heavy truck market sold a total of about 263,000 vehicles of various types, up 9% from the same period last year, with a net increase of 21,000 vehicles. The cumulative quarterly sales volume of 263,000 units is equivalent to the average monthly sales volume of 88,700 units in the first quarter, an increase of 0.77,000 units over the same period last year of 80,000 units.

2015-2024 annual sales chart of China's heavy truck market (unit: 10,000 vehicles)

Gas-powered vehicles are expected to double and electric heavy trucks to explode to 6000+

The typical characteristic of the heavy truck market in March 2024 was “strong in the first half and weak in the second half.”

After the Spring Festival in February, demand for terminals in the heavy truck industry started slowly, and car purchase orders in various regions fell short of the expectations of car companies, causing the industry to be pessimistic or “cautiously optimistic” about overall sales in March. Since the beginning of March, demand for the purchase of heavy natural gas trucks has taken the lead. Orders for gas vehicles from dealers are pouring in. In addition, exports from outside Shanghai are still high, driving the overall sales volume of the heavy truck industry to achieve a sharp increase of 77% month-on-month, but it has failed to maintain the same level of 115,000 vehicles in the same period last year. Judging from the terminal demand situation, domestic heavy truck terminal sales in March this year are expected to be lower than 76,400 units in the same period last year, showing a slight year-on-year decline; actual terminal sales in the first quarter were about 130,000 to 135,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 17%-20%.

There are joys and worries behind the performance of 106,000 vehicles in the heavy truck market in March. What is “happy” is that gas vehicle orders have exploded. It is expected that the gas vehicle terminal sales volume will exceed 30,000 units in March, quadrupling from the previous year, and the gasification penetration rate of the industry will also exceed 40%. Stimulated by rising oil and gas price differentials, combined with the low base of heavy natural gas truck sales in the same period last year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy gas trucks in the second quarter of this year is expected to continue to increase significantly over the same period last year.

Objectively speaking, the driving force behind the popularity of heavy natural gas trucks is still “double low,” that is, low gas prices and low freight rates. In March, the domestic wholesale price of LNG per kilogram had basically stabilized at 4.1-4.3 yuan, while the price of a liter of diesel No. 0 had risen to more than 7.5 yuan. The oil and gas price difference had been steadily widened by more than 3-3.5 yuan, and it is foreseeable that after the heating season ended, gas prices have declined, and it is unlikely to rise to around 5 yuan; in addition, the resumption of production in the manufacturing industry has been slow since the beginning of spring. The logistics industry is scarce, freight rates have dropped further, and the operation of heavy diesel trucks is even more difficult. Therefore, the popularity of heavy gas trucks is “low” and “the environment” is “low” The inevitable trend is ahead.

What is “worrying” is that diesel heavy truck sales continued to decline in the first quarter of this year, the market share was further reduced, and the total actual sales volume of terminals fell 15-20% year on year, all reflecting the lack of momentum in the development of the domestic heavy truck market. Judging from the sales structure, the share of gas vehicles is rising rapidly, “gas cars” are replacing oil trucks on a large scale, and the share of diesel models continues to decline. The logistics and transportation industry continues to plague freight users and the heavy truck market. Under these circumstances, how far can gas vehicles “pull” the heavy truck market on one leg, and whether gas vehicles can support overall heavy truck sales in the second quarter being flat year over year are all very unknown.

Also worth mentioning are new energy heavy trucks. New energy heavy truck sales are expected to reach 6000+ in March this year, with a penetration rate of close to 10%. Monthly sales will explode by more than 2.7 times over the same period last year. The pace of development of new energy heavy trucks is a bit unstoppable.