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Bank of Chengdu's (SHSE:601838) 13% CAGR Outpaced the Company's Earnings Growth Over the Same Five-year Period

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 28 03:11

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. To wit, the Bank of Chengdu share price has climbed 49% in five years, easily topping the market decline of 4.4% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 7.7% in the last year , including dividends .

Since it's been a strong week for Bank of Chengdu shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Bank of Chengdu achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 18% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 8% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 4.65.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SHSE:601838 Earnings Per Share Growth March 28th 2024

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Bank of Chengdu's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Bank of Chengdu the TSR over the last 5 years was 85%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Bank of Chengdu shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 7.7% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 13% per year, is even more impressive. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Bank of Chengdu that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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