1. On March 26 (Tuesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.52%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.48%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.51%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.39%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.24%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.26%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.39%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.33% to $81.35 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.39% to $85.30 per barrel.

Market news

The US government plans to invest more than $6 billion in clean energy and decarbonization projects. Last week, the US government announced major investments in clean energy and carbon reduction programs, which it believes will be a key step towards a more sustainable future. Two important US government announcements will reshape American industry and mining. In its first statement, the US government promised to invest up to $6 billion, which will cover 33 projects in more than 20 states. The investment aims to decarbonize energy-intensive industries including aluminum, cement, chemicals, and steel. “The industrial sector contributes nearly one-third of total US greenhouse gas emissions,” the US government said in a statement, stressing that the target is the industry that emits the most. In a second statement, the US government pledged $475 million to advance five clean energy projects in existing and former mining communities in Arizona, Kentucky, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates “slightly sad”: losses surged to a record high of US$114.3 billion, and fiscal remittances were suspended. The Federal Reserve spent $114.3 billion more than its revenue in 2023, the biggest operating loss in its history. While interest rates remained high, the Federal Reserve was forced to abandon remittances to the US Treasury. Interest expenses (including reserve balances from the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase operation) almost tripled to $281.1 billion in 2023, according to an audited financial statement released on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve earned a total of $163.8 billion in interest income from its asset portfolio last year, compared to around $170 billion in 2022. After paying for day-to-day operating expenses, the Federal Reserve is required to pay the money it earns from its securities portfolio to the US Treasury, and this revenue is used to offset the federal deficit.

The yen fell to a 34-year low. Is the Japanese government finally planning to intervene? Masato Kanda, the highest-ranking official in charge of foreign exchange affairs at Japan's Ministry of Finance, promised on Wednesday that the Japanese government would take any appropriate action against excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. He said that Japan's Ministry of Finance believes that market speculation is behind the yen's fall to a 34-year low early Wednesday. “The recent sharp weakening of the yen cannot be said to be in line with fundamentals. Obviously, speculation is an important reason behind the decline in the yen exchange rate,” Masato Kanda told reporters. “We will take appropriate action against excessive behavior and do not rule out any options.” Masato Kanda also emphasized at the press conference that if changes in the yen exchange rate have a significant impact on the Japanese economy and domestic price prospects, the Bank of Japan will give priority to using monetary policy to resolve the exchange rate issue.

Individual stock news

NIO.US expects to deliver around 30,000 vehicles in the first quarter. NIO announced that on March 27, 2024, the company updated its delivery outlook for the first quarter of 2024. Based on recent business developments, the company expects to deliver approximately 30,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2024, adjusting the delivery forecast from 31,000 to 33,000 vehicles.

Refusing to confess defeat! The crypto carnival ended with bears smashing 10 billion dollars, and MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) was shorted as it went up. Bears are still strongly betting that the rise in crypto-related stocks fueled by Bitcoin's surge will eventually come to an end. Total short positions in cryptocurrency stocks have risen to nearly $11 billion this year, according to a report from S3 Partners LLC on Monday. Over 80% of short positions are for MicroStrategy and Coinbase (COIN.US). The bears' book losses have risen to nearly $6 billion as Bitcoin's rise so far this year has boosted related cryptocurrency assets by more than 65%. Despite this, the bears are doubling their bets. Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of S3 Predictive Analytics, said in the report: “Crypto stock bears have been selling in a rebound market — either looking for a pullback in Bitcoin's gains or using short positions to hedge against actual Bitcoin holdings.”

The total net revenue of Xiaoying Technology (XYF.US) Q4 fell 14.6% month-on-month, and full-year net profit increased by 46.2%. The total amount of loans collated and provided by Xiaoying Technology in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 26.134 billion yuan (RMB, same below), up 20.4% year on year and down 11.3% from month to month; the total amount of loans matched and provided by Xiaoying Technology for the full year of fiscal year 2023 was 105.557 billion yuan, an increase of 43.3% year on year. The company's total net revenue for the fourth quarter reached approximately RMB 1,193 billion (RMB), up 24.8% year on year and down 14.6% month on month. Total net revenue for fiscal year 2023 reached approximately $4.815 billion, an increase of 35.1% over the previous year. The company's net profit for the fourth quarter was approximately $189 million, down 31.2% year on year; revenue per ADS after dilution in the fourth quarter was 3.84 yuan, compared to 5.16 yuan for the same period last year; under non-GAAP standards, the company's revenue per ADS diluted in the fourth quarter was 4.68 yuan, compared to 5.22 yuan for the same period last year.

GameStop (GME.US) Q4 performance fell short of expectations, and layoffs were made to control costs. GameStop's Q4 revenue was US$1,794 million, down 19% year on year, falling short of market expectations of US$2.05 billion; net profit of US$63.1 million, net profit of US$48.2 million for the same period last year; adjusted earnings per share were US$0.22, falling short of market expectations of US$0.30, compared to US$0.16 for the same period last year. GameStop said on Tuesday that it has cut an unknown number of jobs due to increasing competition from e-commerce companies and weak consumer spending amid an uncertain economic outlook. At the same time, GameStop also announced poor results for the fourth quarter of 2023. Furthermore, as of February 3, GameStop had about 8,000 full-time employees and hourly workers, and 13,000 to 18,000 part-time hourly workers worldwide. The stock plummeted nearly 20% in the premarket.

Trump Media Technology Group (DJT.US) continues to soar, wary of Trump cashing out. Following a close of more than 16% on the first day of listing yesterday, Trump Media Technology Group continued to rise in the US stock market on Wednesday. As of press time, the stock is up more than 13%. However, according to some analysts, the stock's valuation of close to 8 billion US dollars seems too high because the company has not yet made a profit, and its largest shareholder, former US President Trump, is likely to escape profits from this round of rise. According to reports, Trump owns about 78.8 million DJT shares, which means that nearly 60% of his shares are worth about 5 billion US dollars. However, these are just book gains because Trump can't sell these shares during the six-month ban. But over the past period, Trump faced a shortage of cash while battling criminal charges and civil charges, and the outcome of the lawsuit appears to be a key factor in deciding whether Trump will cash out from stocks. If Trump were to cash out drastically, it could cause the stock to plummet.

Apple (AAPL.US) sales in China are weak: iPhone shipments fell 33% in February. In February, iPhone shipments in China fell by about 33% compared to the same period last year, continuing the trend of declining demand for this flagship product in Apple's (AAPL.US) most important overseas markets. Smartphones from foreign brands shipped only about 2.4 million units in China last month, which was affected by the late arrival of the Spring Festival. Apple accounts for the vast majority of these shipments and is the only overseas manufacturer with a significant market share. The February decline marked the second consecutive month of decline in shipments. According to official data, Apple's total shipments in January were about 5.5 million units, a decrease of about 39% from the previous year. Since Apple launched the latest generation of smartphones in September last year, its best-selling products have struggled in China, the world's largest smartphone market.

UBS (UBS.US) continues to “slim down”! Apollo (APO.US) took over Credit Suisse's $8 billion assets. UBS has sold Credit Suisse's securitization products business to Apollo Global Management (APO.US) as part of its efforts to gradually divest non-core assets after acquiring the bankrupt banking giant. UBS said on Wednesday that Apollo will acquire $8 billion of “advanced secured financing instruments,” adding that it expects to receive about $300 million in net revenue from the deal in the first quarter of 2024. Credit Suisse began this process in 2022, when the bank said it would gradually reduce the business of securitized products such as mortgages. Under the plan, approximately $20 billion of remaining assets will remain on Credit Suisse books, but will be managed by Apollo. A UBS spokesperson said that UBS will keep assets that have not been transferred to Apollo. The value of UBS's remaining former assets is currently unclear.

Moody's added Boeing (BA.US) Baa2 and Prime-2 ratings to the downgrade watch list. Moody's Investors Service said on Tuesday that it has added Boeing's (BA.US) Baa2 Advanced Unsecured Rating and Prime-2 Short-Term Rating to the downgrade watch list. Moody's believes that Boeing will not be able to deliver the 737 narrowbody aircraft within a reasonable time frame, thereby not being able to significantly increase its free cash flow and repay debts. Boeing is currently in the midst of a crisis caused by quality issues. On January 5, an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 9 airliner had an air accident. A built-in emergency door on the side of the cabin fell off. The passenger plane immediately made an emergency landing, causing no injuries. The accident triggered a grounding order for the Boeing 737 MAX 9 airliner to carry out a new round of safety inspections on this aircraft.

Key economic data and event forecasts

22:30 Beijing time: US EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending March 22 (10,000 barrels)

The next day at 06:00 a.m. Beijing time: Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivered a speech on the economic outlook.

Performance Forecast

Wednesday pre-market: Carnival Cruises (CCL.US)

Thursday pre-market: Jiayin Technology (JFIN.US), China Automobile Systems (CAAS.US), 36krypton (KRKR.US)