The Zhitong Finance App learned that on March 11, Bitcoin reached 71,000 US dollars/coin, rising more than 2% during the day, continuing to reach new highs. According to CompaniesMarketCap statistics, Bitcoin's market capitalization has risen to 1.398 trillion US dollars, surpassing silver (1.380 trillion US dollars) and becoming the eighth largest asset by market capitalization in the world. Meanwhile, Ethereum surpassed 4,000 US dollars/coin, the first time since December 2021. Cryptocurrency tax platform CoinLedger said in a recent research report that Bitcoin has only been halved three times, but the price of Bitcoin has soared by an average of 400% in one year after the past two halves. Based on whether Bitcoin reached 69,000 US dollars when it was halved in April, the study predicted that it would reach 115,000 US dollars in the future. Related targets: Meitu (01357), Xinhuo Technology Holdings (01611), Ouke Cloud Chain (01499), OSL Group (00863).

Leo Mizuhara, founder and CEO of Hashnote, an asset management platform for decentralized financial institutions, said, “I don't think it's crazy that Bitcoin reached $80,000 at the end of the month. Those FOMO (afraid of missing out) investors are expected to join in soon. ETFs have opened the door for more retail investment.”

In fact, in the options market, recent bullish options that bet Bitcoin will further rise above $80,000 or even $100,000 are continuing to be popular. According to data compiled by Amberdata, the number of open contracts executed for Bitcoin bullish options with a price of $80,000 and $100,000 has jumped by about 12%, respectively, in the past 24 hours.

Judging from the reasons behind this round of Bitcoin's rise, the traditional law of supply and demand seems to be the most mentioned reason by industry insiders. Demand for Bitcoin surged following the listing of a spot Bitcoin ETF approved by the US SEC in January of this year. The data shows that since trading began on January 11, the net inflows of nine new Bitcoin spot ETFs have reached about $10 billion. This inflow of funds prompted these funds to buy Bitcoin to meet related demand, which boosted the price trend.

On the supply side, the computer code that supports Bitcoin sets a hard upper limit of 21 million bitcoins. More than 90% of this supply has already been exploited. To expand supply, digital computing computers run algorithms to “mine” new coins. However, only about 900 new bitcoins can be mined every day, and this rate is expected to decline further after the cyclical event known as “halving” next month.

Some analysts say it has become increasingly difficult to obtain bitcoins from investors who hold large amounts of bitcoins. Manuel Villegas, an analyst at Swiss private bank Baosheng, said in a research report last week that in the past six months, about 80% of the Bitcoin supply has not changed hands. Coupled with the inflow of ETFs, and data showing that exchanges have limited stocks of Bitcoin available for sale, this “could exacerbate supply constraints.”

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said, “Bitcoin is currently one of the most scarce assets in the world, and it's getting more and more popular.”

As prices continue to rise, the stronger Matthew effect has also begun to take effect in the past few weeks, attracting more and more investors to participate. A set of comics from insiders shows quite graphically that when the price previously fell back to $25,000 for a long time, no one paid attention to Bitcoin; now, after rising above $65,000, Bitcoin is once again in line.

It is worth noting that Hong Kong has approved futures Bitcoin ETFs. Currently, there are two listed products, Southern East England Bitcoin Futures and Samsung Bitcoin Futures. Their assets are relatively small, and each fund's AUM is less than 100 million US dollars. According to Wind data, the net worth of the Southern East England Bitcoin Futures ETF increased by 134.51% in 2023. Industry insiders believe that as the Bitcoin spot ETF market becomes more mature, more and more investors are integrating Bitcoin with traditional portfolios, and the ongoing marketing activities of these ETF issuers will continue to support Bitcoin prices.

Furthermore, two weeks after the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting in June, the Federal Reserve may officially cut interest rates for the first time, and the US presidential election at the end of the year all threw up favorable factors for the future price of Bitcoin.

CITIC Securities said that the US Securities Regulatory Commission (SEC) has regulated cryptocurrency trading methods to a certain extent through the Bitcoin ETF. It is expected that the cryptocurrency market, which was dominated by retail investors in the past, will change to some extent, and more liquidity is expected to bring about short-term prosperity in cryptocurrencies in the first half of 2024.

Related concept stocks:

Meitu (01357): The company purchased Bitcoin and Ethereum a few years ago. As of June 2023, the company held 940.497 bitcoins and 31,000 ethers. The total cost of holding the two coins accounted for about 10% of the total assets. According to the costs disclosed in the semi-annual report, holding Bitcoin earned 161 million yuan and holding Ethereum earned 288 million yuan, making a total profit of 450 million yuan.

Xinhuo Technology Holdings (01611): The company used the name Huobi Technology and is currently one of the largest cryptocurrency platforms in the world. Xinhuo Technology Holdings mainly provides virtual asset transactions and technical solution services. Among them, virtual asset trading includes providing customers with virtual asset loan asset management and providing an OTC trading platform to act as an exchange.

Oke Cloud Chain (01499): According to the 2024 semi-annual report, the company “heavily stocks” digital currencies. Its digital assets are as high as HK$800 million, accounting for 75% of total assets. According to the disclosure, the company holds 1,725 bitcoins and 6571 ethers. The total value accounts for 43% of total assets, and 21.7% of the assets hold stablecoins.

OSL Group (00863): The company participated in UBS Group's pilot issuance of investment-grade warrants tokens in Hong Kong, China, and covered the entire product issuance cycle. In this project, UBS Group uses the Ethereum public chain to issue share-linked subscription tokens to OSL digital asset securities.