It's been a pretty great week for Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to US$47.34 in the week since its latest full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of CN¥45b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Trip.com Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥14.78 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Trip.com Group's 31 analysts is for revenues of CN¥52.7b in 2024. This would reflect a solid 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 7.3% to CN¥16.57. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥51.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥14.39 in 2024. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Trip.com Group's future following the latest results, with a solid gain to the earnings per share forecasts in particular.
With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 8.0% to US$53.65per share. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Trip.com Group at US$71.97 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$43.98. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Trip.com Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that Trip.com Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 18% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.4% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 9.4% annually. Not only are Trip.com Group's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Trip.com Group following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Trip.com Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see our analysis of Trip.com Group's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.